Ngozi

PeeCeeJay By Jideofor Adibe

Ngozi’s bid for World Bank Presidency

The recent nomination of Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala by South Africa, Nigeria and Angola for the World Bank presidency has been generating intense conversations internationally and among Nigerians. ‘Auntie’ Ngozi, whose candidacy has been endorsed by the African Union, faces two other challengers – the US nominee, Jim Yong Kim, a Korean-American and the 17th President of Dartmouth College, and José Antonio Ocampo Gaviria, a Professor at Columbia University, who was nominated by Brazil.

It must be conceded that there is a high degree of ambivalence in conversations about Dr Okonjo Iweala. Here is a woman who is very admired for her superior education (Harvard, MIT), simplicity, non-intimidating presence, poise and the way she appears completely unfazed by her career accomplishments. Yet, her career accomplishments at the World Bank, a reason many admire her, is equally a major reason why she is intensely distrusted, if not disliked, by some constituencies. Ngozi spent most of her working life in the World Bank, whose (and its institution, the IMF’s) brand of economics is deeply distrusted by many Nigerians, especially after the sad experiences of the structural adjustment programmes of the 1980s and 1990s, which were supported by the two Bretton Woods institutions.

Those who distrust her from this plank often feel vindicated by the rather tactless invitation of Christine Lagarde, the French Managing Director of the IMF, who visited the country from December 19-20 2011. Barely two weeks after her visit, the government ambushed Nigerians with the announcement that subsidies on premium petroleum products had been removed, effective from January 1 2012. Dr Okonjo-Iweala was thought to have facilitated Mademoiselle Lagarde’s visit.

Apart from the civil society groups who see her as an agent of Western imperialism ( largely on account of her long association with the World Bank), there is also a strong suspicion that many of her cabinet colleagues privately envy or loathe her designation as ‘Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy’ – the first among equals who must vet their projects and budgets. Ngozi is also apparently not liked in the National Assemblies where it is thought that her insistence on budget cuts do not go well with many legislators. She is equally thought not to be on the good books of several contractors who feel she is unduly plugging avenues of private accumulation. Her greatest supporter however seems to be the President who has continued to give her political cover.

The bid to lead the World Bank

Despite the ambivalence about Ngozi – a personality that is admired but whose competence is derived from a highly distrusted institution - the key questions around her bid to lead the World Bank are: is she really qualified for the job? Are there any benefits for the country if she succeeds in her bid? And what are her chances of clinching the job?

To answer the first question requires knowing the pedigree of the 11 Presidents the World Bank has had so far. Starting from the first President of the Bank, Eugene Isaac Meyer, an American financier, publisher of the Washington Post and Head of War Finance Corporation under Woodrow Wilson, the expectation has been that any boss of the World Bank must be someone versed in financial matters and with the experience of working in government and managing complex institutions. Contrary to what many people believe, you do not need to be an economist to lead institutions like the World Bank or the IMF. Christine Lagarde, the current Managing Director of the IMF is a lawyer and a significant number of the past presidents of the World Bank were also lawyers with financial sector experience. Ngozi has a PhD in Regional Economic Development from MIT. She had been Vice President and Corporate Secretary of the World Bank Group and later Managing Director of the Bank. She had variously been Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister and currently Finance Minister and Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy. She was among those touted as possible replacement for former World Bank President Paul Dundes Wolfowitz, a political scientist, who was President of the Bank from 2005-2007.

Based on the requirements of the job, there is no doubt that Ngozi is eminently qualified. Some have included as her advantage her 21 years experience in the Bank. The truth is that this is not an obvious advantage. It in fact remains a controversial issue in the appointment of people to head complex institutions like universities and big businesses whether it is better to elevate someone from within the organisation or to get an outisder. Though elevating someone who knows how the system works removes substantially the need for a learning curve, some feel it is often more difficult for an insider promoted to head big organisations to carry out needed reforms. This thinking is probably the reason why of all the 11 Presidents of the World Bank so far, none has been from the career ladder in the Bank.

Some have asked, how, what appears to be the pursuit of personal glory by Dr Okonjo-Iweala, could benefit the country. Those who expect that as President of the World Bank Nigerians will be given preferential treatment when they apply for jobs at the Bank or that she could influence more of the Bank’s projects to be sited in the country, will be disappointed. The World Bank is not like Nigeria or most African States where the President’s word is virtually law and State Governors could direct state universities to be located in their village. The critical benefit for the country will be its ‘hurrah effect’ – the feel good factor of knowing that one of our own is out there mixing it up with the top dogs of the world. Ngozi’s appointment will also be a PR coup for the country, an inestimable investment in the quest to re-brand the country. Her appointment will equally be a big boost to the Jonathan administration in the eyes of the inernational community – for pulling off what will be regarded as a diplomatic coup. Even the mere fact that she is seen as the African candidate is already a sort of victory for an assumed shuttle diplomacy of the Jonathan administration.

On face value ‘Auntie’ Ngozi’s chances are not enormous because of the unwritten rule that the Presidency of the Bank should go to the US while the Managing Director of the IMF should be reserved to the Europeans. That arrangement had its roots in the balance of power configuration in July 1944 when 730 delegates from all the 44 Allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. Among the outcomes of that conference was the establishment of both the IMF and the World Bank in 1945. Though the world has changed remarkably since the 1940s, both America and Europe have clung stubbornly to the system of power configuration of that gone era. It is likely that in nominating Jim Yong Kim, a Korean American who emigrated to the US when he was just five years old as the US candidate, President Obam hoped to meet half-way those who wanted people from the emerging economies to be given a chance and those who believe it is an American birth right. This sense of entitlement will be the greatest structural threat to ‘Auntie’ Ngozi’s bid despite formal promises that the selecton will be based on merit. In selecting the next person to head the World Bank, America has 15% voting right and could count on European support. Nigeria has less than one percent voting right.

Despite the obvious structural and inherent constraints to her candidacy, I believe that Ngozi has two critical advantages in her favour: she is the only female candidate and will most likely bring to bear on her candidacy and on the interviewing panel that power of female enchantment. Ngozi also has history on her side. When Emeka Anyaoku became the third Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Secretariat on July 1 1990, not only was he the first African to hold the post but also the first to be selected from a career in the Secretariat. In the same vein, when Kofi Annan became the seventh Secretary General of the United Nations on January 1 1997, not only was he the first Black African to hold the position (yes, his predecessor Boutros Boutros Ghali was also an African, albeit a ‘White’ one), but also the first person with an extensive career in the United Nations to be so appointed. If Ngozi gets the job, not only will she be the first African and first woman to hold the position but also the first person who had an extensive career in the Bank to to be appointed to head it.