|
Beyond the Single Tenure Bill By Jideofor Adibe
The recent indication that the Presidency would submit a bill to the National Assembly for a single term of six years for the President and Governors has dominated the headlines in recent times. And rightly so! The thought of presenting such a bill by the president - whether it was just meant to fly a kite or actuated by a genuine urge to reform the political process - has wide ranging implications.
One of the most important fallouts from the proposal is that it appears to have impacted heavily on the perception of the President. For instance whereas during the presidential primaries and the general election it was extremely difficult to turn Jonathan into a hate figure – largely because of his guy-next-door image and his public persona as someone who is unfazed by the trappings of power – with the proposed bill, negative adjectives are now routinely used to define him. The danger is that once these adjectives stick they will become difficult to shake off. The difficulty in turning Jonathan into a hate figure during the PDP’s primaries was perhaps one of the reasons why the pro-zoning elements were not as successful as they would have been in mobilising the North against his candidacy. My personal opinion is that unless the President dramatically re-invents himself, his greatest political asset (which in my opinion is the difficulty in making him a hate figure) would have been squandered. Depending on how the president responds to the drive to demonise him, the barrage of negative comments could feed into one another, leading to a possible crisis of legitimacy. It is precisely at this point that the ability of the President to manage a crisis will be tested to its limit.
Interestingly while during the campaign the President’s image makers and PR machine ensured that he is rarely on the defensive on any issue for too long, the discourse on single term tenure was captured, and is being shaped by those opposed to the proposal. In fact, the President appears boxed into a corner, with little room to fight back and take charge. His attempt at damage control - that the idea for the Bill came from the Yaradua era - not only appeared tepid, but actually raised more questions than it answered. This was not helped by the fact that some of the politicians mentioned as taking part in the conference where the idea was adopted denied that a decision was ever taken on the issue. Besides, it also emerged that the Uwais Report on electoral reforms – seen by leading critics as a model of the type of political reforms needed in the country- had shot down the idea of single term tenure when it was proposed. More importantly the presidency appears to have no answer as to why the bill is considered a priority for a regime that has been in office for less than 100 days, and has no visible achievement so far.
I believe that Jonathan won the last elections – despite the imperfections and ‘hi-tech’ riggings’ that characterised it. My personal opinion is that in the South Jonathan successfully ethnicised and regionalised the zoning controversy and by so doing mobilised chauvinistic sentiments against the pro-zoning politicians. This ensured a near bloc vote for him in the South. On the other hand, he managed to prevent the regionalisation and ethnicisation of the zoning argument in the North – partly because of the difficulty of presenting him as a hate figure and partly because most of the Governors, eager to save their jobs, decided or were forced to wave the Jonathan flag. My feeling is that the proposed single tenure bill may have affected the contour of the North/South divide that arose from the zoning controversy. It seems there is a putative re-alignment of forces against the presidency, which transcends region and ethnicity. Obviously various forces in the putative alliance appear to have different interests – some were aggrieved politicians whose hopes for political appointments were raised and then dashed and who would want to have their pound of flesh while others appear to believe that a-single six-year tenure would be inimical to their personal or regional interests. Jonathan can bounce back from this self-inflicted wound if a region or politician tries to exploit it in a chauvnistic way. For instance I believe the report that the North would meet to strategise on how to stop Jonathan’s alleged tenure elongation plan would play into Jonathan’s hands as it would very easily lead to a counter mobilisation of sentiments against the North. It is here important to borrow a leaf from the June 12 struggle. Though it was in the main a fight by a faction of the Yoruba elites to avenge a perceived ethnic insult, it was cleverly presented as a struggle for democracy and against dictatorship. This ensured that other Nigerians were co-opted in the struggle. Similarly the struggle to resist Obasanjo’s tenure elongation bid succeeded because it was presented as a pan-Nigerian project in defence of our young democracy. I strongly believe that if the Ciroma group had marketed their stand on zoning as a pan Nigerian project in defence of integrity and principle –rather than a Northern agenda - more Nigerians would have keyed into the campaign. This would have made it more difficult to politically define the pro-zoning candidates as Northern irredentists or ethnic champions. In essence those who opposed Jonathan on the zoning issue are unlikely to benefit from any battering of his political image occasioned by this very ill-advised proposed bill unless they too successfully re-invent themselves as nationalists rather than regional/ethnic champions as they were successfully labelled. In our political history, those successfully labelled as regional irredentists or ethnic bigots are rarely accepted on the national scene. Similarly, the struggle for who occupies the topmost political position in the land has never been about who is the most qualified but who is the most acceptable. In today’s Nigeria, no section of the country can get the presidency without critical support from other parts of the country. Moves by any section of the country that heighten suspicions from other sections of the country are therefore politically suicidal.
It is still baffling to many people the real motive behind the proposed single tenure bill at this time – given that the nerves frayed by the zoning controversy are yet to be healed and that suspicions that the President might have tenure elongation plans had been aroused shortly after the elections when his spokesman claimed that four years might not be enough for the President to accomplish his programmes. The single tenure bill simply feeds into that suspicion. And given the recent revolutions against sit-tight leaders in the Arab world and the general resistance to tenure elongation plans across Africa - Olusegun Obasanjo in Nigeria, Frederick Chiluba in Zambia, Paul Biya in Cameroun Wade in Senegal, among others, it is obvious that such a bill would be stoutly resisted and eventually defeated. So why mull a bill that would not only make the President a hate figure but is bound to be resisted and defeated? Some have suggested that there may be Fifth Columnists in the Jonathan presidency who may surreptitiously be working to bring down his regime. Others have questioned the political intelligence quotient of the advisers behind the mulling of the policy at this time.
The proposed single term tenure also raises questions about the constant tinkering with our Constitution – pretty much the same way we do policy somersaults, on a whim, on virtually every issue. Since our Constitution – a document that is supposed to be ‘sacred’ - could be amended or even discarded on a whim, what prevents the man who benefited from a single six term tenure from gingering a discussion about the merits of a- two term six-year tenure and subsequently amend the Constitution to accommodate his wish? I personally believe the President’s political stature would have been enhanced if he had made a statement that he would persuade as many Governors as possible to do only one term and hand over to their successor. So what political mileage did the President really believe the announcement of the proposed single tenure bill would fetch him? |