PeeCeeJay By Jideofor Adibe Boko Haram: ‘Mission Accomplished’ or ‘Technically Defeated’? Email: pcjadibe@yahoo.com Twitter: @JideoforAdibe The recent declaration
by President Buhari that the country has
“technically won the war” against Boko Haram reminds one of George W Bush’s
‘Mission Accomplished’ speech on May 1 2003. The United States
had invaded Iraq on March 20 2013, with a coalition that included American,
Australian, Polish and Danish military troops. With the Iraqi capital Baghdad
falling on April 20 2003 – much earlier than envisaged by the coalition - an
elated President Bush could hardly contain himself. In a televised speech on May 1 2003,
President Bush pompously announced the defeat of Saddam Hussein and a victory
for the coalition. On the background
during that speech was a banner that read “Mission Accomplished” displayed on
the US warship/ aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (also known as Navy
One), which had had just returned from combat operations in
the Persian Gulf. As it turned out however that declaration was
premature because most of the casualties in the conflict – both civilian and
the military - occurred after that speech. For his army of critics, that
speech was one more instance of President Bush’s shallowness on how the real
world works. Bush himself was to
severally regret that ‘Mission Accomplished’ speech. For instance in January
2009 he was quoted as saying: “Clearly putting ‘Mission Accomplished’ on an
aircraft carrier was a mistake.” Re-wind to
Nigeria, December 2015. Nobody doubts
that President Buhari was very determined from the
day he assumed office as the elected President to confront Boko Haram
headlong. However when in September he gave the military a December deadline
to defeat the terrorists, many felt that such a deadline could be
counterproductive. For instance in my column of October 7 2015
entitled ‘Re-thinking Boko Haram’, I argued that
while giving the military a deadline to crush Boko Haram could have a role to
play in motivating the soldiers and re-assuring the civilian populace, I was
not sure whether a failure to meet the deadline could be interpreted as a
defeat for the country or not. The deadline suggested a simplistic binary of
‘win’ or ‘lose’. The deadline
also not only wrongly assumed that the Boko Haram militants were enemies
massed on the other side of a conventional war but also ignored both the history of terrorism and Boko Haram’s specific history. The
truth is that the current religion-inspired wave of terrorism (which was
estimated to have started in 1979) has not really been completely routed in
any clime. In fact scholars estimate that this wave may last until 2025 to be
replaced by another wave. In other words, if history is a guide, then we can
talk of defeating terrorism only in the sense that we talk of eliminating
corruption and crime. Complete elimination of terrorism is utopia but
reducing it to the barest minimum is possible and should be the goal. Let us
remember that following the attack in the USA on September 1, 2001, President
George W. Bush declared a war on terrorism with a boast that the war “would
not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped
and defeated”. More than 14 years after, can we say America has won or is
winning the war? To argue as –
as some APC spokes persons are currently doing – that the President never
said or suggested that Boko Haram attacks would end by December but only that
the group would no longer be able to hold any Nigerian territory - is to
indulge in opulent sophistry. For one this line of logic not only wrongly
assumes that Boko Haram was not lethal before it began seizing territories
about two or three years ago but also falsely assumes that Sambisa forest
(Boko Haram’s current stronghold) is not part of Nigerian territory. I feel it would
have been far more ennobling for the government to come clean and admit that
its initial assessment of the situation had been faulty. Essentially
therefore, apart from putting the integrity of the government on the line,
the government’s ‘Boko Haram has been technically defeated’ speech could
raise the expectation of the citizens such that any attack by the group will
be seen as another
evidence that the government has lied to them. In other words, the claim that
Boko Haram has been ‘technically defeated’ could lead to frustrations and
under- appreciation of the gallantry and sacrifices of the soldiers fighting
the terrorists. Some of Boko
Haram’s attacks since the ‘Boko Haram has been technically defeated’ speech
include: on Christmas day, just two days
after Buhari's pronouncement, Boko Haram raided a
village, killing 14 people. On December 27, the Daily Post reported of an
intense battle between Boko Haram insurgents and the military over attempts
by the insurgents to take over Maiduguri, the capital city of Borno State. On the same December 27, the Premium Times
reported that the army arrested seven Boko Haram bomb makers in Kaduna. On
December 28 several media outlets reported that about 30 people were feared
dead in a suicide attack in Adamawa state. Since its
radicalization in 2010, Boko Haram has shown remarkable resilience and
adaptability. On at least three occasions, the country thought the group had
become routed – only to be disappointed. The ‘smart’ way to remove fuel
subsidy The recent announcement
by the Federal Government that
effective from January 1, 2016,
Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol or fuel, would be sold
at N86 per litre by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC’s)
retail stations while other oil marketers would sell at N86.50 per litre, was
a smart move by the government. The current official cost of fuel is N97 per
litre – though the price is considerably more outside the major cities of
Abuja and Lagos. The general belief is that the government has finally
decided to remove fuel subsidy from January 2016 – despite its conflicting
signals on the matter. By hiding the
bad news in good news – a perfectly legitimate strategy used by governments
across the world - the government is probably hoping to tie the hands of
those opposed to removing subsidies. By showing that the price of fuel should actually
be lower despite the de-subsidization, the government probably hopes to
remove the quivers from the arrows of the pro-subsidy lobby. Though the
Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) said it would resist any subsidy removal, it
is not certain that they will get the backing of most Nigerians on this. The
fact is that several people who were opposed to removing subsidies have since
shifted positions. In fact the ‘shut down Nigeria’ protests that followed the
attempt by the Jonathan administration to substantially reduce the subsidy on
fuel on January 1 2012 had led to the House of Representatives setting up the
Farouk Lawan Ad Hoc Committee on Fuel subsidy which
showed how the subsidy regime was turned into a haven for rent seeking and
outright theft by a cabal of oil marketers. The government’s
own Aig-Imoukhuede-led
committee report and the Nuhu Ribadu’s
oil subsidy report were no less damning of the oil marketers - who fought
back ferociously in a manner that convinced many Nigerians that given how
powerful they are, the only viable option to the scam was for the subsidy to
go. With long
queues returning at petrol stations across the country, people were rather
surprised that it took the Buhari government so
long to act on the fuel subsidy matter. In this sense I do not share the sentiment
that it would amount to hypocrisy for those who opposed the removal of fuel
subsidy under former President Jonathan to now turn round to support it. I have two
concerns on this though: one, if the subsidy should go (as I believe it
should), what then is the need for the government to impose price controls
with threats against anyone who will sell above the recommended price? If the
supply side is as it should be, then the price should be determined by demand
and supply. My other concern is that while we are doing away
with one subsidy (fuel subsidy), we are introducing a couple of new ones –
school feeding and N5, 000 per month to ‘vulnerable’ unemployed people. Just
like the fuel subsidy, the possibility that a cabal of contractors would
capture these new regimes is very high |