SUNDAY MUSING:  Expanding INEC's Options for Voter Registration

By

Mobolaji E. Aluko, Phd

alukome@gmail.com

Burtonsville , Maryland, USA

 

 

December 3, 2006

 

____________________________________________________________________________

 

 

INTRODUCTION

 

 

In a newspaper of Sunday, December 3 (see below), House Speaker Bello Masari is quoted in an exasperated tone as saying the following:

 

 

QUOTE

 

``[INEC CHAIRMAN PROFESSOR] Iwu is opening a new issue which he never talked about before'',   [HOUSE SPEAKER] Masari said, before adjourning the House sitting till December 5.

 

UNQUOTE

 

And that is the problem......

 

When a public officer puts his ego on the line so much that he finds it difficult to listen to the public about failure that is staring his agency in the face if some new drastic action is not taken, he then looks for face-saving maneuvers that will make it look as if he knew what he was doing all along.

 

No one is fooled.

 

 

OF INEC'S 2002 REGISTRATION

 

 

The last set of General Elections were held in Nigeria in 1999 and 2003.  The current president and a significant number of the legislators nationwide were supposedly, allegedly elected based on certain voters on the relevant voters' registers.   The last comprehensive voters registration exercise was conducted between September 12 and 22, 2002. Following complaints from the public, a make-up exercise was carried out for a week in December 2002. Altogether 67,892,762 applications were reported to have been received, and 60,823,022 voters were actually egistered.   [See Tables 1 and 2 below, for state-by-state breakdowns of some critical INEC and DCNR data.]

 

With a number as precise-looking as "60,823,022" for voter population for 2003, should we not have 100% confidence?  

 

Moving on...

 

At a death rate of 16.94 deaths/1,000 population per annum (2006 est.; CIA website) for Nigeria, of this population, a total of no more than 3 million should have died, realistically no more than   maybe 2 million, since the overall death rate would include very young children and old people who might NOT be expected to have registered.  At a population growth rate of 2.38% per annum for Nigeria (again a CIA figure), maybe about 4.3 million additional people might be on the voter roll, meaning that we should really not be expecting more than 65 million total voters in 2006/2007.  

 

But when INEC was previously asked to begin its new registration on the basis of those old registers, Prof. Iwu said (in effect) that a dog had eaten all of them!

 

Now suddenly, the dog has vomited them - at least the 2002 electronic register - and they can now be used to begin a "re-validation".

 

It appears that this new epiphany is because after incessant criticisms,  Iwu has now fully realised that the present electronic registration - which to date by INEC's admission has resulted in the registration of 4 million voters out of an estimated 65 people -   ain't going to register maybe more than one tenth of the eligble voters by December 14,  just less than two weeks away now.    I know how slow it can be - it took me one hour to be registered in Ode-Ekiti on November 17, 2006. [see http://www.dawodu.com/aluko151.htm ]

 

Better late than never....

 

Nevertheless, Iwu's insistence that the re-validation MUST include a new photo component will mean that only a little saving in time will STILL be obtained by this re-validation step.   One wonders whether that would be useful. 

 

 

EXPANDING THE OPTIONS

 

Consequently, my suggestions are as follows:

 

1.  let the current electronic registration (with picture taking) continue as is, slow as it is, and possibly continue AFTER the 2007 elections.   After all, we have paid for the machines, and they should be used.

 

2.  however let the new re-validation come from two sources:

 

     (i)  the National picture ID card program that had gone on before now.

 

A comprehensive ID program was conducted in 2003, about six months after the voters' compilation exercise. The exercise lasted for four weeks from February 18 to March 16, 2003. It was initially billed for two weeks but following complaints from members of the public, it was extended to four weeks. The DNCR (Department of National Civic Registration of the Ministry of Internal Affairs) was expected to register more persons than INEC because more adolescents would have turned 18 years, and its exercise lasted for a longer period.   However, it reported that it carded 52,052,780 - another accurate-looking figure - but 8,819,248 less than INEC's figure.  Again, the state-by-state breakdown is shown in Table 1 below.

 

However, this is the latest February 2006 information on this ID program:

 

QUOTE

 

http://www.europeanbiometrics.info/news/newsdetail.php?Id_news=103

 

60 million Nigerians are to be issued with a biometric national ID card. According to local newspaper reports the ID cards will be embedded with fingerprints and will be distributed in 2007. So far 15 million Nigerians have been issued with ID cards.

 

Alhaji Shuaibu Sabon-Birni, the director of Civic Registration in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, said that the estimated number of Nigerians between the ages 18 and above is 60 million. He also hopes that by first quarter of 2007, every eligible Nigerian will have been registered and issued the identity card.

 

Sabon-Birni disclosed that his Department is collaborating with the Nigeria Immigration Service to ensure that non-Nigerians are not issued with the national identity card. He was quoted as saying: "Honestly as an African, it is inevitable you will have these problems, first and foremost how do you honestly differentiate between the person from Niger and the person from the northern part of Sokoto, we speak the same language, we look alike, we are Africans."

 

Source: Security Document World, 7 February 2006.

 

UNQUOTE

 

If this report is true, Alhaji Shuaibu, please allow INEC to simply attach a VIN number and possibly a bar code at the back of those 15 million already issued, will you? Thank you - even though we would like to ask why since 2003, only 15 million out of 52 million ID cards have only been issued?

 

And why did INEC have to duplicate DCNR's efforts?

 

    (ii)  those without National ID cards AND those without current electronic-registered INEC cards should simply report to INEC centers with their 2002 INEC cards, following which INEC should simply attach new 2006/2007 VIN numbers and a bar code AND then re-laminate them WITHOUT requiring pictures to be taken.

 

Consequently, even though there would be three types of identification for voting in 2007, what would be common to all of them would be newly-supplied VIN numbers.   It is these VIN numbers that should act as the common ELECTRONIC REGISTRATION feature which can be used to ensure a one-man-one-vote feature that INEC is harping upon.

 

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

As I have emphasized in previous write-ups, while this voter registration exercise is a prima-facie desirable requirement for one-person-one-vote mandate for credible elections, the more important challenge in Nigeria's voting history is ensuring one-vote-one-count, followed by one-count-same-announcement!   Thus, to act as if the voter registration is the panacea for all of our election problems is disingenuous, and our challenge is to ensure that the votes of those who show up at the polls not only count, but what is announced is actually what was counted.

 

2007 remains pregnant with both negative and positive possibilities.  It may make or mar Nigeria - again.

 

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

 

 

1.  http://www.dawodu.com/aluko40.htm

"State, Zonal and Regional Analyses of INEC Data for Voters' Applications, Registration and Disqualifications"

Mobolaji E. Aluko, April 7, 2003

 

2.  http://www.dawodu.com/aluko48.htm

"Voter Registration and ID Registration"

Mobolaji E. Aluko, May 15, 2003

 

3.  http://www.dawodu.com/aluko151.htm

"Why INEC Should Declare Victory And Go Manual Now"

Mobolaji E. Aluko, November 22, 2006

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

TABLE 1:  Results of 2002/2003 Exercises by INEC and DCNR

 

 

 

State

Registered Voters 2003

ID Cards 2003

Difference

[Reg Voters minus ID cards]

 

 

Number of

Polling Stations

 

 

 

 

 

South-West

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ekiti

981,753

470,341

511,412

2195

Lagos

4,558,216

4,553,242

4,974

8465

Ogun

1,576,875

1,575,825

1,050

3210

Ondo

1,504,181

1,116,704

387,477

3009

Osun

1,367,627

1,102,724

264,903

3010

Oyo

2,209,953

2,124,588

85,365

4783

TOTAL  SW

12,198,605

10,943,424

1,255,181

24672

 

 

 

 

 

South-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Abia

1,285,428

1,208,755

76,673

2676

Anambra

1,859,795

1,516,908

342,887

4623

Ebonyi

1,002,771

821,811

180,960

1784

Enugu

1,479,542

1,233,338

246,204

2959

Imo

1,630,494

1,296,153

334,341

3523

TOTAL SE

7,258,030

6,076,965

1,181,065

15565

 

 

 

 

 

South_South

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Akwa Ibom

1,624,495

1,257,349

367,146

2982

Bayelsa

765,472

270,141

495,331

1805

Cross River

1,289,192

1,010,282

278,910

2283

Delta

1,607,337

1,437,184

170,153

3625

Edo

1,432,891

1,327,839

105,052

2629

Rivers

2,272,238

1,401,461

870,777

4441

TOTAL SS

8,991,625

6,704,256

2,287,369

17765

 

 

 

 

 

Total South

28,448,260

23,724,645

4,723,615

58,002

 

 

 

 

 

North-West

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jigawa

1,636,657

1,483,891

152,766

3527

Kaduna

2,620,999

2,492,497

128,502

5108

Kano

4,000,430

3,507,057

493,373

8074

Katsina

2,567,245

2,226,092

341,153

4896

Kebbi

1,343,549

915,218

428,331

2398

Sokoto

1,476,691

1,295,425

181,266

3035

Zamfara

1,515,622

1,263,824

251,798

2516

TOTAL NW

15,161,193

13,184,004

1,977,189

29554

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adamawa

1,280,204

1,208,226

71,978

2609

Bauchi

2,130,557

1,930,451

200,106

4074

Borno

2,156,019

1,553,753

602,266

3933

Gombe

1,263,287

894,944

368,343

2218

Taraba

1,026,950

1,086,436

-59,486

1911

Yobe

966,749

725,112

241,637

1714

TOTAL NE

8,823,766

7,398,922

1,424,844

16459

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North-Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Benue

1,755,528

1,784,903

-29,375

3691

Kogi

1,158,343

983,413

174,930

2548

Kwara

995,882

904,447

91,435

1872

Nassarawa

852,626

782,378

70,248

1495

Niger

1,607,730

1,435,472

172,258

3187

Plateau

1,391,594

1,366,017

25,577

2631

TOTAL NC

7,761,703  

7,256,630  

505,073  

15424

 

 

 

 

 

Abuja FCT

628,100

439,573

188,527

562

 

 

 

 

 

Total North

32,374,762

28,279,129

4,095,633

61,999

 

 

 

 

 

Total Country

60,823,022

52,003,774

8,819,248

120,001

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 2: INEC Distribution of Senatorial Districts, Federal and State Constituencies, Electoral Wards, Polling States

 

 

 

 

S/N

State

No. of

LGA

No. of

Senatorial

Districts

No. of

Federal

Consti-

tuencies

No. of

State

Consti

tuencies

No. of

Wards

No. of

Polling Stations

 

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

 

 SW

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

Ekiti      

16

3

6

26

177

2195

2

Lagos  

20

3

24

40

245

8465

3

Ogun  

20

3

9

26

236

3210

4

Ondo  

18

3

9

26

203

3009

5

Osun  

30

3

9

26

332

3010

6

Oyo  

33

3

14

32

351

4783

 

TOTAL SW

137

18

71

176

1544

24672

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SE

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

Abia  

17

3

8

24

184

2676

8

Anambra  

21

3

11

30

326

4623

9

Ebonyi 

13

3

6

24

171

1784

10

Enugu  

17

3

8

24

260

2959

11

Imo  

27

3

10

27

308

3523

 

TOTAL SE

95

15

43

129

1249

15565

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SS

 

 

 

 

 

 

12

AkwaIbom 

31

3

10

26

329

2982

13

Bayelsa

8

3

6

24

105

1805

14

CrossRiver

18

3

8

25

193

2283

15

Delta  

25

3

10

29

270

3625

16

Edo  

18

3

9

24

192

2629

17

Rivers  

23

3

12

32

319

4441

 

TOTAL SS

123

18

55

160

1408

17765

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NW

 

 

 

 

 

 

18

Jigawa  

27

3

11

30

287

3527

19

Kaduna  

23

3

16

34

255

5108

20

Kano  

44

3

24

40

484

8074

21

Katsina  

34

3

15

34

361

4896

22

Kebbi  

21

3

8

24

225

2398

23

Sokoto

23

3

11

30

244

3035

24

Zamfara

14

3

7

24

147

2516

 

TOTAL NW

186

21

92

216

2003

29554

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NE

 

 

 

 

 

 

25

Adamawa  

21

3

8

25

226

2609

26

Bauchi  

20

3

12

31

212

4074

27

Borno  

27

3

10

28

312

3933

28

Gombe 

11

3

6

24

114

2218

29

Taraba

16

3

6

24

168

1911

30

Yobe  

17

3

6

24

178

1714

 

TOTAL NE

112

18

48

156

1210

16459

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL NC

 

 

 

 

 

 

31

Benue  

23

3

11

29

276

3691

32

Kogi  

21

3

9

25

239

2548

33

Kwara  

16

3

6

24

193

1872

34

Nassarawa

13

3

5

24

147

1495

35

Niger  

25

3

10

27

274

3187

36

Plateau  

17

3

8

24

207

2631

 

TOTAL NC

115

18

49

153

1336

15424

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

37

Abuja FCT

6

1

2

0

62

562

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GRAND TOTAL

774

109

360

990

8812

120001

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

APPENDIX – Newspaper Reports

 

PUNCH

 

2007: INEC to Use 2002 Voters' Register

 

By Ndubuisi Ugah with agency reports, 12.03.2006

 

Fct

 

Indications emerged at the weekend, that the Indepen-dent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may resort to the use of the electronic voters' register compiled in 2002 for the 2007 general elections.

 

INEC Chairman, Prof. Maurice Iwu, who gave this indication, when he appeared before the plenary session of the House of Representatives in Abuja , said the register, which was updated in 2005, would be  incorporated into the register,  currently being compiled by the commission.

 

He said voters', whose names were in the register must revalidate it by presenting their registration slips and having their pictures captured by the Direct Data Capture (DDC) machines before they would be allowed to vote.

 

The revalidation exercise, he said, would continue till February 14, as stipulated by the 2006 Electoral Act.

 

According to him, "the projected number of voters is 60 million. Therefore, the fear that many voters would be disenfranchised is unnecessary anxiety".

Iwu ruled out the possibility of reverting to manual voters' registration, as suggested by some, and reiterated that he was confident that the electronic registration would succeed.

 

He said that more than four million voters had so far been registered through the DDC and assured the people that all eligible voters would be registered before the end of the exercise on December 14.

 

After the questions-and-answers session between the INEC chairman and the lawmakers, the Speaker, Alhaji Aminu Masari, said a decision would soon be taken on the matter.

 

He said that the leadership of the House would liaise with the leadership of the Senate at the weekend, to take a decision because of the new standpoint of INEC.

 

``Iwu is opening a new issue which he never talked about before'',  Masari said, before adjourning the House sitting till December 5.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

CHAMPION

 

INEC to revalidate 2002/03 voters' cards

 

CLEMENT NWOJI, Abuja

 

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the weekend directed those having 2002/2003 voters to revalidate them before January 31, 2007 .

 

The commission gave the directive in a statement endorsed by its Director, Public Affairs, Pastor Segun Adeogun, citing provisions of the Electoral Act 2006.

 

He explained that on presentation of the 2002/2003 voters' card at any of the commission's registration centre, "pursuant to its powers inferred by section 17(4) of the Electoral Act 2006, the commission will replace the voters card/ slips previously issued in 2002/2003 with new voters' card that will have the photograph of the voter on the card and in the register".

 

Also, he said the commission would in compliance with the section 21 of the Electoral Act, 2006 integrate the supplementary voters' list with the register of voters and publish same by February 13, 2007.

 

Further, Adeogun enjoined voters to confirm if their names appear correctly on the register, assuring if "all such persons whose names do not appear but who has show evidence of previous registration in 2002/2003 shall be registered in accordance with the provisions of section 20 of the Electoral Act, 2006."

 

He reiterated the commission's commitment to conducting free and fair credible election and implored all eligible persons to endeavour to register.

 

It would be recalled that the voters' registration exercise commenced October 7, 2006 in designated special centres and extended to other parts of the country in October 25, 2006.