Nigerian Elections 2003: Update 001-PDP's Presidential Convention

By

Mobolaji E. Aluko, Ph.D.

alukome@aol.com

January 4, 2003

Dear Reader:

In the summary projections below, based on the accompanying ThisDay newspaper projections, I have done a little arithmetic, calculus and statistics - and horology.  I have awarded  60% to the projected winner in each state and 40% to the projected loser.  Where there is a close call, I have divided the votes virtually evenly, but with a one or two vote advantage to the person with a slight edge.  However, Ekwueme is awarded 80% of the votes in his zone of origin SE, while Obasanjo is awarded 95% in his SW.  One or two other minor considerations will be apparent from inspection.

My projective summarization shows a slight tip to Ekwueme:  1673 to Obasanjo's 1615, with 1672 required to win outright out of a total delegate vote of 3342.  If all 54 who would vote for Rimi do so for Ekwueme, that would bring it to 1727 Ekwueme to 1615 Obasanjo.

Even I don't believe those figures.  For one, Gemade and Rimi are still in the race, and will not get only those ZERO votes assigned to them in various states. They will thus siphon off some of Ekwueme's votes.  Secondly, my SE vote % to Ekwueme (80%) is too generous. A 5% variation will reduce the advantage by 24 votes, and a 10% variation coupled with a more realistic 100% SW vote for Obasanjo (rather than 95%) will wipe out the 58 vote advantage of Ekwueme.

My tea-leaves - or crystal-ball - predictions?  The votes from this convention will be more like 1840 Obasanjo to 1502 Ekwueme. 

Whatever they really are, we come away with a clear conclusion:  the Northern delegates (total number: 1790), not the Southern ones (total number: 1552), determine who wins and who loses.

But as the reporter himself said, we "will continue to monitor [these figures] and give an update as things are changing and changing fast..."

Stay tuned - and best wishes all.

May the best person for PDP win - but as freely and as fairly as Nigerianly possible.

Bolaji Aluko

Nigerian Elections 2003 Pollster

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SUMMARY PROJECTIONS

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Ekwueme Rimi Obasanjo  Total  (Ekwueme - Obasanjo)

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Ekwueme Rimi Obasanjo  Total  (Ekwueme - Obasanjo)

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NORTH

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*  Projected winner based on ThisDay article, and my assumptions

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THIS DAY

December 4, 2003

PDP Presidential Primaries: Battle Royale...

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Last week, Chief Audu Ogbeh, National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic (PDP), was complaining about the media, that it was paying too much attention to the PDP, to the negligence of what goes on in other parties. He wondered why those other parties were spared the critical comments of the media. But he forgot that the party prides itself as the biggest in Africa. And for us in this country, the actions and inactions of the PDP approximate the fate of not only the nation's democracy but also the future of the nation. That explains why its failings are almost equated with the failings of the nation. What with the fact that it not only has the ruling party, it indeed controls the political paradigms of the polity.

By tomorrow, it will once again, file out its over 3000 delegates to choose who will fly the party's flag at the presidential polls in a few months from now.

Almost as if it is the nation's general elections, the nation and indeed the world is watching. Will the process be fair and transparent? Will it differ from the manipulations the party has demonstrated in several of its previous conventions even at the same Eagle Square venue?

But more importantly, will the outcome of the convention bind the party in stronger ties or shatter the brittle tethers that have managed to hold the disintegrating parts together?

Once, it was Solomon Lar, then Barnabas Gemade and now Audu Ogbeh. Can Ogbeh hold the ace aright? Can he be scripted on the right pages of the nation's history? How he conducts this crucial convention will be a strong determinant.

In this report, EDDY ODIVWRI having studied the political indices on the field have tried to provide a guide to the voting pattern of the 3,349 delegates whose choice will further our search for a truly democratic society where no man is oppressed. Our projections are however subject to the windy streaks of politics in which patterns and postions could suffer quick alterations.

This analysis is based on alignments as at Friday night. A number of meetings are scheduled for Saturday and Sunday morning. THISDAY will continue to monitor them and give an update as things are changing and changing fast...

North Central:

The north-central zone is one zone Obasanjo can exude some confidence and political assurance. With the likes of Solomon Lar, Jerry Gana, Gov Abdullahi Adamu, Lt Gen Mohammed Abdullahi (rtd), the National Security Adviser, etc behind him, the predictions of support from the zone should be pretty certain. What's more, here is a zone that the Far North begrudged for all the plum jobs it got at its expense. It is thus believed that the zone will largely file behind President Obasanjo. However, a set-back may be in the issue of the Zaki Biam killings in which several thousand of persons were killed, and property worth millions of naira was destroyed. It is perhaps in a bid to woo the people again that President Obasanjo last Sunday decided to worship with the Benue people, wherein he apologised, for the first time in over a year, for the gruesome killings. Ekwueme may enjoy some support from the likes of Audu Ogbeh, Gen Ibrahim Babangida, Niger delegates, and the likes of Iyorchia Ayu and perhaps, Barnabas Gemade (when the chips are down). The question is: Can Obasanjo over-run any coalition against him in the zone? Who will most of the 552 delegates from this zone vote for?

BENUE (109 electoral votes)

This state has 109 delegates. The machinery of the party is in the firm hands of Gov George Akume, who himself is a strong Obasanjo supporter. Last October, he led several Benue people including the top elite of the society in all walks of life to see President Obasanjo at the Villa. The accord to support him is believed to have been struck at those meetings, but on the condition that he apologises to the people over the killings, so that "selling him again to the people will be easier". Just last Wednesday, Obasanjo fulfilled that condition. The coast of Benue is therefore believedly clear for Obasanjo.

A group called the Benue Proactive Coalition, led by one John Waya, a Kaduna-based hotelier, the younger brother of Terry Waya, the socialite, may be on perpendicular path with Akume, but it is believed they have faint hold on the political influence in the state.

The likes of Senator Joseph Kennedy Waku and Senator Daniel Saror will work against Obasanjo. David Mark is a follower of Mr. President.

Verdict: Ekwueme is ahead.

KOGI (79 electoral votes)

With its admixture of several ethnic groups in the state with some as Yorubas (Okun), President Obasanjo is sure to have over two-thirds of the votes of the 79 delegates from the state. Here is a state that produced the first Chief of General Staff of this dispensation (Gen Ogohi) and Chief of Air Staff, AVM Isaac Alfa, and several personal assistants, ministers and senior special assistants. More than that, the bigwigs of the party in the state including Senators Alex Kadiri, who decamped fromt the ANPP into the PDP and Senator Tunde Ogbeha, are going to head the drive for Obasanjo support. No doubt, the restorative work being done on he Ajaokuta Steel Complex by the Obasanjo administration will earn him some mileage in the contest.

Verdict: Obasanjo tipped to win.

KWARA (55 electoral votes)

It is another state President Obasanjo should be comfortable with. Even when the the lord of Kwara politics, Dr Olusola Saraki, was in a rival party (ANPP) in 1999, the state massively voted for Obasanjo on the instruction of Saraki. And in return, Obasanjo appointed his son, Dr Bukola Sarakia, special assistant, although he later resigned. Now, Saraki is a full fledged member of the PDP. It is thus sure that he will faithfully deliver the Kwara delegates to Obasanjo. What's more, the Chief of Staff at the Presidency, Lt Gen Abdullahi Mohammed, who is a surreptious power broker both in the state and in the north, is from Kwara state. Obasanjo will be home and dry with a preponderant support from the 55 delegates of the state.

Verdict: Obasanjo looks comfortable.

NASARAWA (78 electoral votes)

This state has 78 delegates. Like Benue, the state is under the firm control of Gov Abdullahi Adamu, a rabid fanatic of Obasanjo. A man whom Obasanjo often fondly refers to as "Governor-General" of the federation. With the likes of Abubakar Haruna, former Deputy Senate President, out of the party, it is believed that Nasarawa will most easily file behind Obasanjo's candidacy. What with the fact that his administration is said to have made the state the third largest beneficiary of rural electrification project in the country. With Gov Adamu, Hassan Agwai Mohammed (the PPMC chairman) etc, Obasanjo is sure to have a profound edge over his opponents in the state. Former Deputy Senate President, Haruna Abubakar, and Ekwueme's supporter, Isyaku Ibrahim, are strong men in the state politics.

Verdict: Too close to call.

NIGER (111 electoral votes)

This is fondly called the power state, because it houses a giant thermal station which generates electricity. Also, two former powerful Heads of State are from the state. To a large extent, it could be described as a mono-political state. In the last election in 1998/9, the PDP won the contests at all levels from the local government to presidential. This is believed to be the effect of the Ibrahim Babangida strong influence in the state.

Niger state, apart from the Babangida factor, may not be a strong hold for Obasanjo. Gov Abdulkadir Kure, has been begrudging the President Obasanjo for failing to give them the allegedly promised Hydro Power Area Development Commission (HYPADEC). He will thus not mobilize support for Obasanjo, especially as he is among the northern Governors who believe that Obasanjo has not done well, especially to the north. With the tacit support Babangida has mobilised for Ekwueme, who had come for anointing from his (IBB's) temple before declaring for the race, it is certain that Obasanjo will lose this state, which incidentally has the largest number of delegates (111) from the zone. Alhough the likes of Jerry Gana are avid supporters of Obasanjo,they can hardly affect the tidal flow to Obasanjo's advantage. The recent decampment of Mohammed Bello, the former minister of commerce, from the PDP into NDP, further dulls Obasanjo's chances.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

PLATEAU (90 electoral votes)

The 90 delegates from this state are likely to all file behind Obasanjo. There is no visible opposition to Gov. Joshua Dariye in the state. And since he is going to strongly affect the choice of delegates, his loyalists are expected to support Obasanjo . Although a few persons like Alexander Molwus and Gowon (younger brother of Gen Gowon) may have felt injured in the conduct of he senatorial primaries in the Plateau senatorial district, which produced Senator Ibrahim Mantu, it is believed that the support for Obasanjo in the state is strong. What wih the fact that the likes of Ibrahim Mantu, the Deputy Senate President, Mrs Paulen Tallen, Achitect Pam Gyang, an Anenih man who until recently was a top Director in the ministry of works and Housing (who contested the primaries but lost to Dariye) and Joshua Dariye are all behind Obasanjo. Solomon Lar is said to have some sypathy for Ekwueme.

Verdict: Too close to call.

FCT (30 electoral votes)

Being the seat of power, it is ordinarily expected to be a zone that Obasanjo can effectively control. But again, FCT is largely considered as no man's land and no individual can actually claim the political clime. However, the fact that he administrative and political structures of the FCT are under the control of Obasanjo, it is expected that he will have advantage over the other aspirants.

With Obasanjo's supporters like Alhaji Mohammed Abba-Gana, the FCT minister, who, more often, funds the several political groups in the FCT, it is expected that Obasanjo will be better favoured by the 30 delegates of the FCT. But the fact that the larger population of the delegates may be of northern stock, which may similarly share an anti- Obasanjo chances, the swing of the pendulum may be undecided.

Verdict: Obasanjo ahead.

North East

This is Vice President Atiku Abubakar's geo-political zone. The fact that the controversy surrounding the retention of Atiku as running mate has been settled, it is expected that this zone will be solidly behind Obasanjo's candidacy. From Adamawa to Yobe, the 467 delegates from the zone are expected to be disposed to

Obasanjo, given the expected strong Atiku factor in the zone.

Led by Atiku himself followed by the likes of Adamu Ciroma, himself the National Co-ordinator of the Obasanjo campaign group, as well as the strong influence of the likes of Alhaji Kashim Ibrahim-Imam etc. Obasanjo is now expected to run through his victory course with the ease which a hot knife runs through butter bulk. And although the entire north may accuse the Obasanjo administration of poor performance, this zone can hardly do so with fair mind. His zone has, indeed, benefitted rom several federal government projects including those of roads, water and rural electricity. Indeed, the zone may have also have been the highest beneficiary of erosion control (ecological funds).

ADAMAWA (90 electoral votes)

If no other state is certain for the Obasanjo/Atiku ticket, it is certainly not Adamawa. Given that it is Atiku's own state, the pro- Obasanjo sentiment is expected to be strong. Very strong. With Gov Boni Haruna controlling the party machinery in the state, the mewing voices of opposition like those of Bamanga Tukur will be easily subdued. With 90 delegates coming from the state, and expected loyalty to Atiku, the Obasanjo team is expected to capture over 85% of the votes from the state delegates. However, Obasanjo stands oppossed by Senator Jonathan Zwingina and his followers. As long as Atiku is still with Obasanjo, Adamawa will vote Obasanjo, but the sentiment is with Ekwueme.

Verdict: Obasanjo ahead.

BAUCHI (108 electoral votes)

The state Governor here, Alhaji Adamu Mu'azu is also in charge of the party structure. He was a sure Obasanjo man. He was thus most likely going to deploy the delegates to Obasanjo support. But given the way he has been moving with the anti-Obasanjo governors, he may not support Obasanjo.

Verdict : Ekwueme ahead.

BORNO (80 electoral votes)

This again is another stronghold for the Obasanjo/Atiku ticket. With the second largest number of delegates (80) in the zone, Borno looks set to hoist the Obasanjo flag. With the recent emergence of Kashim Ibrahim-Imam as the PDP governorship candidate in the state, it is clear that Obasanjo is in good standing. Imam was Obasanjo's Presidential Liaison Officer(PLO) to the senate. The fact that the governor of the state has been harassed out by his ANPP further weakens the ire of opposition in the state. It must not be ignored however that the recent decampment of Alhaji Gambo Lawan, the Chairman of the Warri Refinery and Petrochemical Industry, after the governorship primaries, to the AD, casts some doubt on the wholesomeness of the Imam support in the state. Some of the PDP members in the state may therefore be opposed to Obasanjo on the suspected reason that he may have used to Presidential powers to influence Imam's emergence. But the sentiment is with Ekwueme, but for the Atiku factor.

Verdict: Obasanjo ahead.

GOMBE (49 electoral votes)

This Jewel of the Savannah has the least number of delegates (49) in the zone. Although the state is controlled by the ANPP, PDP has recently got a strong showing in the state, given the Governorship ambition of Alhaji Mohammed Goje, former Minister of state in the Power and Steel ministry. Babangida is believed to have some influence on the administration of the state, including the state chapter of the party. Goje, who may not have fancied his being dropped from the cabinet, may not be favourably disposed o Obasanjo's candidacy. He may thus root for Ekwueme, what with the Babangida effect in the state. Here too, the sentiment is with Ekwueme, but the Atiku factor may tilt it in Obasanjo's favour.

Verdict: Too Close to call

TARABA (81 electoral votes)

With the restoration of the rights of Rev Jolly Nyame to stand for another term, it is expected that Obasanjo will enjoy the support of the delegates in the state. But observers feel that Rev Nyame may not be enthusiastic about the Obasanjo return especially as he is seen as being behind the embarrassment the Governor suffered by the earlier disqualification. Much more than that however, is the fact that Lt Gen T.Y Danjuma, minister of defence, and respected elder statesman is from this state. With a relationship dating back to their days in the military, Danjuma will mobilize support for his friend and boss. The Atiku factor counts here, but the sentiment is for Ekwueme.

Verdict: Obasanjo ahead.

YOBE (53 electoral votes)

This state has 53 delegates. Being the state of the National co- ordinator of the Obasanjo/Atiku Campaign himself, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, leading the pack of supporters will deliver the state delegates to Obasanjo. Ciroma's influence in the state is expected to cause a block voting for Obasanjo. But this expectation is only as at party level, because despite the efforts of Ciroma in 1999, the state lost the governorship to the ANPP. It cannot be ignored however that there is some anti-Obasanjo sentiment in this state which feel that the administration has not done enough for them. If this opinion holds sway, then a thousand Ciromas may be unable to stop Obasanjo's rejection. Still, the Atiku/Ciroma influence is very present in the state.

Verdict: Obasanjo ahead.

NORTH WEST

This is one zone where the anti-Obasanjo sentiment is much more than mere political slogan. It is real and almost visible. And touchable. Although he is not a member of the PDP, the Arewa lecture of Gov Attahiru Bafarawa of Sokoto state where he lampooned the Obasanjo government for neglect of the north and betrayal of trust (and agreement?), the aura of hatred for the Obasanjo administration in the zone has been remarkably profound. Although Atiku had claimed that the Federal Government had spent billions of naira on the north- west roads and projects, Bafarawa had challenged him to prove where those sums were expended on. Although Obasanjo has pockets of supporters here and there in the zone, it is believed that the bulk of the 779 delegates - the largest in the country - will favour Ekwueme or other candidates especially with the political relationship between Ekwueme and this zone. Ekwueme is expected to get the highest number of votes from this zone. It is a critical zone.

KADUNA (130 electoral votes)

Kaduna is a more tolerable state for Obasanjo, especially as Gov Makarfi is considered one of his unalloyed loyalists. However, it seems things are changing as the governor has been attending pro- Ekwueme meetings. The support for Obasanjo in this state will go beyond the position of the Governor who may, indeed, not be in control of majority of the delegates, therefore there may not be a landslide victory. However ,with the expected support of the likes of Senator Mohammed Aruwa, Obasanjo may just be able to scratch out a modicum of support from the 130 delegates from the state. Kaduna, considered as the political capital of the north, and given that the National Assembly caucus of the House and the senate may decide to vote en bloc, Obasanjo's chances may well be reduced. Indeed, Kaduna may well be split between Ekwueme and Abubakar Rimi.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

KANO (197 electoral votes)

This state perhaps represents the hotbed of opposition to the Obasanjo government. Incidentally, it has the largest number of delegates in he country - 197. Sometime last September, Obasanjo was, in Kano, pelted with stones by miscreants at the book launch of the Emir of Kano. Being the home state of Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, who himself is an aspirant and that of Alhaji Ghali Umar Na'Abba, the Speaker of the House of Representatives. With the long-drawn battle that has raged between Na'abba and Obasanjo, coupled with the criticisms that Rimi had fired at the Obasanjo administration, it is to be expected that Obasanjo may not be very well on the right pages of the people of the state. Although Gov Rabiu Kwakwanso may want to influence a few delegates for Obasanjo, the pervading presence of the Abacha clan in the politics of Kano will further ensure that any flicker of support for Obasanjo will be immediately extinguished. Again, the governor cannot control the delegates.

Verdict: Too close to call.

KATSINA (190 electoral votes)

Ordinarily, this should be a friendly state to Obasanjo given the affinity between the late Yar'Adua and Obasanjo on one hand and between Atiku and the same Yar'Adua, on the other hand. Gov Umaru Yar'Adua is in charge of the state party machinery, and so may sway the votes of the delegates to favour Obasanjo. But the presence of Gen Muhammadu Buhari in this state, although not a member of the PDP, is believed to have loyalists in the PDP who may work against Obasanjo's candidacy. But watch out for the Atiku factor.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

KEBBI (64 electoral votes)

This state is one of those that also have unfavourable disposition to the Obasanjo administration. The state strongly believes that the Obasanjo administration has not been fair to them. There is the likelihood that the Bamaiyi sentiment will be strong on the state, in which case Ekwueme may have an edge over any other contestant. It is worse for Obasanjo that the state is not controlled by the PDP.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

JIGAWA (80 electoral votes)

This is a political appendage of Kano, and so should ordinarily go the same way with Kano. But the presence and political might of he likes of Sule Lamido, the Foreign Affairs Minister in the state may turn the table against Obasanjo's critics. The fact that the state is not being controlled by PDP, makes it a little easier for Lamido and co to control the 80 delegates from the state.

Verdict: Obasanjo slightly ahead of Rimi.

SOKOTO (74 electoral votes)

This ancient seat of the Caliphate, with 74 delegates, has also not been exactly warm about the Obasanjo administration. Indeed the state strongly shares that the Obasanjo government is anti-north. The state has Muktar Shagari, the Water Resources minister, and Danladi Bako, immediate past DG of the Nigerian Broadcasting Commission (NBC), now a senatorial candidate of the PDP and Senator Abdullahi Wali. However, the fact that the political gladiator like the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Second Republic President, may not throw their weight behind the Obasanjo candidacy. The fact that Ekwueme was the Vice President to Shagari is bound to awaken some sentiments for Ekwueme in Sokoto state.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

ZAMFARA (44 electoral votes)

This is also another political outgrowth of Sokoto State. If any history will be faithful, then it will go the way Sokoto will do. Being an ANPP state, and one that also feels strongly that the Obasanjo administration has not been exactly fair to them, the chances of Mr President getting enormous support from this state are slim. The National Security Adviser, Lt Gen Muhammed Gusau may mobilize some support for Ekwueme, who is said be be favoured by IBB, Gusau's soul mate. The bulk of the 44 delegates may be split between Ekwueme and Rimi, leaving Obasanjo with almost nothing.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

South East

This is the home zone of Dr Alex Ekwueme, and so should ordinarily enjoy maximum support from it. But politics does not follow such straight logic most times. What may twist the support base of Ekwueme may well be vaunted ambition of the various political leaders from the zone. Indeed, some of the five Governors of the south-east may be nursing some presidential ambitions, perhaps in 2007, presumably after they may have ended their second term. With that at the back of their minds, some are already calculating that giving Ekwueme the chance now may indeed weaken their chances when 2007 comes. To those with this with end of the argument, they reason that it is thus better to allow Obasanjo to have his second term to pave an unhindered chance for the Igbo candidate in 2007. Indeed, the decampment of Ike Nwachukwu from the PDP 48 hours to the primaries narrows the choice between Obasanjo and Ekwueme, just as it was in 1999. However, some other factors like the marginalisation swan-song echoing from the east may strongly work against Obasanjo. It is however remarkable that none of the south-east governors supported Ekwueme, their kinsman, at the 1999 Jos convention. At the end of the day, when push comes to shove, Igbos will vote for Ekwueme because this is their best chance ever.

ABIA (80 electoral votes)

Headed by Gov Orji Kalu, who is holding the ace of the party machinery in the state, the 80 delegates may from the state are more likely going to be more controlled by Gov Kalu. Kalu's mind may be influenced by two factors: one, his advertised dissatisfaction with the Obasanjo presidency may knock off Mr President from his reckoning, yet, his own ambition of one day becoming a president of this country may similarly cause him to ditch Ekwueme so that his chances subsequently will be brighter.

However, the presence of the likes of Onyema Ugochukwu, Ojo Maduekwe, Vincent Ogbulafor, who are all Obasanjo supporters may influence some votes in Obasanjo's favour.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

ANAMBRA (127 electoral votes)

This state has 127 delegates. And it is Ekwueme's own state. Without much permutations, Ekwueme is expected to be the man to beat here, if nothing else for the sake of home support.

With the humiliation Gov Chinwoke Mbadinuju faced on the issue of the primaries, it is likely that he will swing the support of the delegates under his control to Ekwueme. But other contra-factors in the state like Emeka Offor, Ben Obi, may work towards delivering the state to Obasanjo.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

EBONYI (92 electoral votes)

The face-off between Senate President, Chief Anyim Pius Anyim and President Obasanjo, on the one hand and between Gov Sam Egwu and Anyim on the other are likely going to split the votes in this state. While delegates controlled by Anyim will tilt towards Ekwueme, those controlled by Egwu will opt for Obasanjo. The decampment of the likes of Lawrence Nwuruku, the Minister of State for Industries, will further weaken Obasanjo's strength in the state. Thus, the 92 delegates from this state, may be split apiece by Obasanjo and Ekwueme.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

ENUGU (99 electoral votes)

Again, the face-off between Nwobodo and Obasanjo may adversely affect the latter's chances in this state which is sending 99 delegates to the convention, even though Gov Chimaroke Nnamani may mobilize support for Obasanjo. The recent declaration by Nwobodo that Obasanjo used him against Ekwueme in 1999 implies that he is now "wiser" and may support his kinsman this time around. Nwobodo, who controls much of the party machinery, may have lost faith in Obasanjo after the latter failed to come to his aid when his bank (Savannah Bank Plc) was liquidated by the CBN. This may be Nwobodo's pay-back time, and Ekwueme will be the maximum beneficiary. His henchmen in the state like Dubem Onyia may not be able to influence the tide to Obasanjo's favour.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

IMO (140 electoral votes)

This state has the largest number of delegates (140) from this zone. Although Dr Kema Chikwe, the aviation minister and Evan Enwerem may seek to mop up support for Obasanjo, the sentiment is strongly held in this state that Obasanjo has also net been fair to the Igbos in the last three years. The delegates who are not exactly under the control of a particular individual in the state are therefore not going to file out behind Obasanjo. However, the opinion by Gov Achike Udenwa that the Igbo nation may not be exactly ripe for Igbo Presidency may not make him enthusiastic about the Ekwueme candidature

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

SOUTH-SOUTH

This is the oil-bearing zone, often considered as the livewire of the nation. It is sending 477 delegates to the convention. It has been the zone that has understandably championed the resource control struggle, because they feel they are not getting enough for the huge resources their land produce to the country, moreso that the process of oil exploration has ravaged their environment with devastating effect on the life and economy of the people. Incidentally, the Obasanjo government has not quite responded to their quest in increased revenue for the zone. And this has taken several labels in the struggle. First it was resource control, then 13% derivation formula, and on-shore/off-shore dichotomy and now continental shelf and contiguous zone, President Obasanjo, recently refused to assent the on-shore off-shore abolition bill. And this has once again set him against the people of the zone. For all intent and purposes, this may be a strong issue to determine the support of the zone for Obasanjo's candidacy.

AKWA-IBOM (111 electoral votes)

Perhaps, this is the most economically injured states regarding the resource control judgement delivered by the Supreme Court. On the issue of continental shelf and contiguous zone, this state again will be worse affected if Obasanjo has his way, given that most of its oil are located off-shore. The state therefore has been vertically opposed to Obasanjo's return. In fact, a group, Northern Democratic Alliance, believes Governor Victor Attah can indeed become the nation's President and have called on him to run for the Presidency, given his detribalized nature. Armed with 111 delegates, the chances of Obasanjo are bleak in this state, as the delegates may feel more comfortable with the Ekwueme candidature.

Verdict: Ekwueme may win the state.

BAYELSA (53 electoral votes)

This state has the least number of delegates in the zone - 53. Its Gov. Diepreye Alamiyeseigha had also predicated the support of the zone on Obasanjo's signing of the On-shore/Off-shore bill. Although Alamiyeseigha may have been saved by the presidency over the controversial primaries that re-presented him as the Governorship candidate despite damaging reports against him, he is not likely going to be an enthusiatic embracer of Obasanjo candidate, although the likes of Timi Alaibe and Anmbassador Emmanuel Otitio may well canvass support for Obasanjo. The fact that a large share of the state party machinery is under the control of Alaibe, may swing the votes in Obasanjo's favour. But Obasanjo's draw back in the state may be he sour memory of the Odi killings of 2000, in which several innocent civilians were killed and their homes burnt by soldiers sent by the Fedreal Government as a retaliation for the killing of 12 Policemen in the state by some youths.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead

CROSS RIVER (67 electoral votes)

The fact that the people of the state are generally impressed with the handling of the Bakassi peninsular issue by the Federal Government may win for Obasanjo some modicum of support. But more than that, is yet the anger in the zone that the Obasanjo government has denied the people of the zone their due. Cross River was also badly hit by the resource control controversy. It is sending 67 delegates ro the convention. The fact that that Donald Duke and Godwin Agabi have always worked at cross-purposes may also affect a wholistic support for Obasanjo. If the decision of the Governors of the zone to abandon Obasanjo is upheld, then Cross River may go a perpendicular path with Obasanjo's ambition. The governor is howver with Obasanjo.

Verdict: Too close to call

DELTA (122 electoral votes)

The largest producer of oil in the country. It has 122 delegates to the convention. Its Governor, Chief James Ibori, has championed the resource control struggle, a fact which has affected he relationship between Obasanjo and Ibori. The people of he state also have3 a feeling hat Obasanjo has played too much politics with the oil in their state, especially with thre attendant negligence the satte suffered in Obasanjo's first term. An enthusiasm for Obasanjo's second tem appear ill. This is more so that Ibori is believed to have more a mind of his own irrespective of he influnce Anenih has on the zone. The only minister Obaasnjo has in the state, Chris Agbobu, is of a veritable light weight politically. If Ibori skids off the Obasanjo circle, the 122 delegates from the state may dump Obasanjo.

Verdict: Ekwueme ahead.

EDO (100 electoral votes)

Governor Lucky Igbinedion has surprised everybody by pitching his tent with Ekwueme. Tony Anenih may be able to deliver some delegates from his local government area to Obasanjo.

Verdict: Too close to close, but Ekwueme may spring a surprise.

RIVERS (124 electoral votes)

This treasure base of the country has the largest number of delegates from the zone. With the exit of the likes of Dr Marshall Harry and Sergeant Awuse from the party, Gov Peter Odili, considered a lackey of the Obasanjo government is thus firmly in charge of he party machinery. The poor handling of the onshore/offshore bill may hurt Obasanjo here. Odili is watching from the sidelines.

Verdict: Too close to call.

SOUTH WEST

If all zones will reject Obasanjo, not this. Unlike Ekwueme's south- east, which is not certain about its support for one of their own, Obasanjo's south-west is solidly behind him. With the politics of abrasion of the likes of Chief Olabode George and Sunday Afolabi, Chief Obasanjo is bound to have a swell-support from his kith and kins. No doubt, the about 436 delegates from the zone are largely going to file behind Obasanjo.

EKITI (54 electoral votes)

This state with the least number of delegates from the zone has the likes of Prof Adediran and Prof Borishade, the Education minister, will mobilize support for Obasanjo. It must be noted however that this is the only state in the south-west that originally produced a PDP senator in the person of Gbenga Aluko. Incidentally, because of the controversy surrounding the senate scandal in which Aluko was indicted (but later pardoned) and the subsequent war of attrition between the older Prof Sam Aluko and Obasanjo, the Aluko family has elected to work for Ekwueme with Gbenga being a cardinal member of the Ekwueme campaign team. But despite the Aluko strand of opposition, Obasanjo is still tipped to carry the day in the state.

Verdict: Obasanjo will have a straight victory.