Obasanjo's Emergence As the PDP Flagbearer in 2003 is Still a Giant Question Mark

By

Dozie Ikem Ezeife, Esq.

ezeife@yahoo.com

Olusegun Obasanjo was elected president in 1999 with an overwhelming mandate and with the support of almost all sections of the nation. The lone exception was his Yoruba tribesmen and women. Nigerians had real hope that because he was a former head of State, had spent some time in prison on trumped up charges and was a born-again Christian, that President Olusegun Obasanjo will come in and clean the Augean stable. He was thought to have the requisite experience and was therefore given a rare second opportunity to have a go at the leadership of Nigeria. His party had control of the National Assembly. The other two parties, the AD and APP were in disarray and their supporters were decamping to the President’s PDP in droves. He poached members of the AD and gave them positions in his administration. Obasanjo had a stranglehold on power both at the Presidency and at the PDP national executive having spearheaded the alienation of the leading founding members of PDP.

His first act as President was to alienate and marginalize the prominent Nigerians that were instrumental to the dominance of the PDP and by implication Obasanjo’s success at the polls in 1999. He shoved aside Chiefs Alex Ekwueme, Sunday Awoniyi, Edwin Ume-Ezeoke, Edwin Clark, Solomon Lar and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, to name a few. He schemed Chief Germade and Okwesilieze Nwodo in as Chairman and Secretary of the PDP respectively. He surrounded himself with ruthless henchmen such as Chief Anthony Anenih and General Yakubu Danjuma and had a coterie of seasoned professional charlatans such as Professor Jerry Gana and Tunji Oseni. He had absolute power and he was soon consumed by it.

He subsequently turned his attention to the National Assembly where he mounted an unprecedented campaign to subjugate the legislative branch. He bribed, intimidated, cajoled, and starved the Senate and members into removing Dr. Chuba Okadigbo as Senate President and replaced him with the political greenhorn Chief Pius Anyim. With this move he had effective control of the Senate. The House however proved intractable for him and his machinations. Alhaji Ghali Umar NaAbba was and still is indeed a handful. He is a cat with a thousand lives having survived every effort made by President Obasanjo and his henchmen to turn the House into a “Yes Chamber”.

Next the President waged war against the PDP Governors who dared complain that their State was starved of federal projects. He went after Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia State, Dr. Egwu of Ebonyi and a few others in the North. His agents of choice were federal appointees and willing members of congress from the target states, the so-called “Abuja Group”. He used the Abuja group and the police to terrorize and intimidate these Governors and their perceived supporters. He allowed the Abuja agents to “accumulate” huge sums of money and properties, which they exhibited to flex their muscle and show the supporters of the target Governors, where the “bread” really was.

Obasanjo and his choirboys told Nigerians at every opportunity that Nigeria will completely disintegrate if Obasanjo did not return as President in 2003. Rogue “men of God” and political opportunists predicted that Obasanjo has been ordained to repeat in 2003. We were told that there wasn’t any other Nigerian that could preside over the country. In other words, that the survival of Nigeria was inseparably joined at the hips with the re-election of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2003. A lot of Nigerians were actually persuaded that the fortunes of Nigeria rested on Obasanjo’s “capable” hands. What hype.

With his apparent political dominance and huge incumbent factor, President Olusegun Obasanjo seemed a shoe-in for the PDP presidential slot in 2003. There was not even any muting of a possible challenge as PDP flag bearer. It was taken for granted that the PDP top spot was his for the asking. It was not a question of whether he will run but when he will announce that he is running. To heighten the drama he hid under the ridiculous claim that he was waiting for God to tell him what to do. What arrogance. Soon desperate hangers-on and political appointees started sending delegations to the President to beg him to run for re-election. This charade culminated in the Ottah debacle orchestrated by Chiefs Anthony Anenih and Solomon Lar and was later crowned at the so-called “Obasanjo Speaks” at Abuja several weeks later.

The bubbles soon bust. A floodgate of criticisms poured forth and a deluge of declared opponents appeared on the scene. Obasanjo’s cocky mien seemed a bit bent and the arrogant pronouncements of the inevitability of his return quickly dried up. The indomitable Alhaji Abubakar Rimi went on the offensive and others noted that President Obasanjo’s seemingly indestructible aura was just a myth. It turned out that uncle Sege was not untouchable as was previously thought. The running battle between the youthful Orji Uzor Kalu and Mr. President on the marginalization of Ndigbo as well as the Igbo presidency made another dent on Obasanjo’s supposed impregnable Armour. The young Governor fought the mighty president to a virtual draw and earned the respect of Nigerians. Mr. President was forced to change his tactic and decided to jettison his Abuja troopers in favor of incumbent Governors. It had become clear to Mr. President that the incumbent Governors with their control of the State Electoral Commissions are guaranteed to win control of the local governments and by implication will have control of their states come 2003. His handlers figured that the only way Obasanjo could repeat in 2003 is if he has the support of the PDP State governors. The Abuja Group made good cheerleaders but they have no real political base.

The massacre at Odi and Zaki Biam portrayed the President as a ruthless tyrant. His reaction to the grieving crowd at Ikeja after the loss of over 1,000 lives and the terror suffered by Nigerian showed him as a callous and unfeeling leader. The unjustified closure of Savannah Bank, the Tokunbo ban and his incessant foreign trips have exposed his inability to articulate basic sensible policies. He was deaf to the strident calls for him to abandon his incessant fruitless search for foreign investors. He could not take fair criticism and would not accept sound advice. Obasanjo became an “eze onye agwannam” and is therefore knee deep in political feces.

His disastrous failure at an attempt to manipulate the 2001 Electoral Act sat his chances of a repeat in 2003 on its head. His ongoing battle of words and wits with the Senate President has ensured his loss of control in the Senate. The stage is set for a real bloody political confrontation between Obasanjo and the National Assembly. An impeachment process is starring him in the face.

Obasanjo was heckled in Kano and completely humiliated by the citizens of Kano. He stoically sat in dazed stupor as citizens of Kano chanted pro-Buhari songs at his recent visit to the Emir of Kano’s palace. He is loosing support in all the political zones of the country. More and more people are emboldened to throw in their hats into the presidential fray. Even within his own PDP candidates are lining up to mount a challenge against his nomination. The political dam built around him by Mr. Fix it has broken. He is set to battle Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, Dr. Chuba Okadigbo, Chief Germade and Senator Ike Nwachukwu for the PDP presidential slot.

The House of Representatives recently passed a resolution calling on President Obasanjo to quit or face impeachment. This call seems to resonate with cross sections of the Nigerian public. The leaders of some of the unregistered political parties at a recent meeting at the Ikeja Airport Hotel lent their support to the Federal legislators. Some of those who spoke in support of the House resolution were the fiery civil rights lawyer Chief Gani Fawehinmi, Alhaji M.D. Yusuf, Alhaji Musa Sani and Alhaji Balarabe Musa. 

The Senate President, Chief Pius Anyim, revealed recently that the PDP zoning scheme did not call for a second term for the President. This is a re-affirmation of an earlier revelation by Sonny Okogwu that the deal pursuant to which Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as the PDP presidential nominee in Jos in 1999 called for a one-term presidency for the chicken farmer. The President’s hope of being the PDP presidential nominee in 2003 is fast becoming quick sand. Speaking recently on the issue of second term, the Governor of Imo State made several very interesting points. In the Guardian of August 20, 2002, his Excellency was quoted as saying that:

A second term in office is not a must. Any fool can build a road or give water. The underlying factor is what you have to offer. It is not a question of wanting to complete projects started by me. No. After all I completed some projects started by my predecessors and others will complete projects that we may not be in a position to complete.

Governor Udenwa’s position clearly stands Obasanjo’s argument for wanting a second term on its head. President Obasanjo has often argued that the reason why he is running again is to enable him complete “projects” began by him. The president has so far failed to show Nigerians these much-vaunted fictional projects.

The recent successful impeachment of the Enugu State House of Assembly Speaker by the Asogwa group has turned the table on the pro-Obasanjo forces in Enugu State. Obasanjo and perhaps the PDP are in real danger of losing Enugu State in 2003. The ability of the President to lean towards the Emeka Offor group in Anambra State will decide whether or not he will carry Anambra State in 2003. With the recent mass decampment from PDP of prominent Plateaus State politicians, the stage is set for AD to carry Plateau State in 2003. It is unlikely that President Olusegun Obasanjo will carry Niger State in 2003. Not with his continued antagonism of their favourite son Ibrahim Babangida and the current running battle between the State Governor and Obasanjo’s ministers from Niger State. Governor Bafarawa of Sokoto State in the recent past had said that the North under the auspices of the Arewa Consultative Forum would not back Obasanjo for a second term. The charismatic Governor Orji Uzor Kalu has vowed to stick by his resolve to support the election of a southeast/south south president in 2003. President Olusegun Obasanjo’s hope of riding the coattail of PDP governors to a presidential victory in 2003 is fast becoming as elusive as his search for foreign investors.

The single most fatal obstacle to Olusegun Obasanjo’s re-election in 2003 is the forceful claim to the presidency by the south south and southeast. The same unique political climate that guaranteed the widespread support that Obasanjo garnered in 2003 will be his undoing in 2003. Olusegun Obasanjo beat Alex Ekwueme because the nation (especially the north) felt obliged to cede the presidency to the southwest on account of the guilt around the June 12 debacle. This time around, the preponderance of views and climate of opinions seems to suggest that the next president of Nigeria will come out of the East. The stark reality is that the political whirlwind that blew Olusegun Obasanjo into Aso Rock in 1999 will inevitably blow him out in 2003 in favor of a President from the East. The North has acknowledged that the time has come for the Igbos to be fully integrated into the Nigerian nation. The Igbo Presidency in 2003 is such a potent political force that no elected official from the southeast will dare to align on the wrong side of the issue. The lone exception is of course Arthur Francis Nzeribe, a derelict of the corrupt past on whom I do not intend to waste words. Suffice it to say that his perceived political relevance in Igbo land is merely a figment of his decrepit imagination.

The North clearly understands that throwing their very weighty and decisive support behind the agitation of southeast and south south for the presidency in 2003 is the best option for the north for several reasons. Support for an Igbo/south south presidency will portray the north as coming down on the side of fairness and further solidify their long standing political alliance with those sections of Nigeria. An Igbo/south south president will satisfy the yearning of the remaining zones in the south in one fell swoop and thus effectively kill two birds with one stone. Such a presidency ensures the return of the presidency to the north in 2007 and thus another 8-year sojourn of the coveted position in the north. The flip side is a scenario where Olusegun Obasanjo puts in 8 years and in 2007 the Southeast and South south will insist on having a go at the presidency. That will delay the return of the presidency to the north for 16 years. That would be unacceptable to the north. The northern strategy and its interplay with the Igbo agenda was beautifully analyzed by Hassan S. Indabawa in his seminal piece: North and the Igbo Presidency, published in the Weekly Trust of August 20, 2002. In it Indabawa says:

It is in this light that some Northern politicians have come up with the pragmatic and realistic idea of supporting a South-South or South eastern candidate.. Subsequent developments have turned out to manifest the practicability and wisdom behind promoting a possible Igbo ticket. It is now clear that the vast majority of Northern leaders are giving the issue serious consideration. This of course is for obvious reasons. Political expediency readily comes to mind. Despite the common notion that it is almost impossible to unseat an incumbent from office, it is however not tenable in the case of Obasanjo. The north on whose support he saddled the mantle has disowned him. Ditto the Southeast, the most unjustly treated region. Same for South-south who are known as the Niger-Delta who would be the last to forgive the president for his refusal to assent to the NDDC bill of 13% derivation and the president’s callous resurrection of onshore/offshore dichotomy. Can anyone imagine how the Tivs or the Odi community (sic) will work for the re-election of Obasanjo after he sent soldiers to raze their communities to ground zero. Another reason why the north should consider an Igbo presidency is the political pay back. The Igbos have remained our traditional allies. When the political chips are down, ‘the Igbos are always there to support us’. Therefore, it is in this same light that Northern leaders should employ their political astuteness to consider and realize an Igbo presidency. At least even for self-preservation. (Emphasis supplied).

The North also recognize that if they insist on running a northern candidate in 2003, Olusegun Obasanjo will easily make the case that the north are merely interested in retaining power in the north and not because he is not a good president. But a southern candidate who is not Yoruba will garner more appeal in the south and with the support of the north will beat Olusegun Obasanjo even if by some miracle he was able to convince his kinsmen to support him. As far as the north is concerned, they are willing to go to bat with any other candidate other than Olusegun Obasanjo.

President Olusegun Obasanjo is so desperate that he starved INEC of funds that would enable it revise voters register and thus clear the way for the conduct of local government elections. His scheme has caused INEC to delay the exercise and has led to an indefinite suspension of the scheduled local elections. Obasanjo wants to secure nomination of PDP to run for a second term before the conduct of local government elections. His handlers know that if local government elections were held prior to the PDP national convention, Olusegun Obasanjo would lose his local government to AD. The loss of his political base will obviously bring his aspiration for a second term to a screeching halt.

The crude and unprovoked campaign of calumny launched on Ibrahim Babangida by Olusegun Obasanjo through his henchmen has backfired. The attempt to use the Oputa Report to force General Babangida to declare his support for Obasanjo’s re-election, coupled with the Presidency’s clumsy effort to co-opt Gani Fawehinmi to join their attempted political mugging of the wizard of Minna was a monumental political suicide. Rather than garner its expected result, it has driven the master of political chess to the bosom of Obasanjo’s platoon of detractors. What a monumental disaster.

Stripped of his entire claim to fictional national and international acclaim, Olusegun Obasanjo is nothing but another local tribal chieftain masquerading as a detribalized national leader. Olusegun Obasanjo has effectively been reduced to a Yoruba President who incidentally does not enjoy Yoruba mass support; a pathetic people less prince. Obasanjo is a lost soul attempting to use his second coming to correct his past faux pas vis a vis the Yoruba nation. He has used his 1999 national mandate to compensate his kindred for what he did to Chief Obafemi Awolowo in 1979 and Chief MKO Abiola in 1992. His political appointments and projects distribution clearly proves this. Recall that the late Bola Ige had revealed early in Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidency that the President was implementing the manifesto of the AD and not that of PDP. That explains why the only support he draws currently in his battle with the House of Representatives is mainly from individuals from the Yoruba stock. He is even allegedly trying to cut a political deal with AD whereby AD and Afenifere will mobilize Yoruba support for him in the Presidential race in 2003 and in return he will keep PDP out of Odualand with respect to other electoral positions.

Even the PDP has gotten the message that Olusegun Obasanjo is damaged well. That is why the party recently set up a committee headed by Alhaji Lawal Kaita to review the viability of Olusegun Obasanjo as the PDP flag bearer in 2003. I predict that Olusegun Obasanjo will not be the PDP nominee in 2003. In keeping with the signs of the time, a candidate from the East will eventually emerge as the PDP flag bearer in 2003.

Dozie Ikem Ezeife, Esq.

Attorney-At-Law

Oakland, California