Zuru: The New Bride of Kebbi Politics

By

Nurudeen Abdulsalami

Forwarded by Abubakar Sadiq Ajiya

SADICOM@aol.com

The impending political battle for 2003 is promising to be an interesting one in Kebbi State. From all indications, the re-election bid of the incumbent Governor is in serious difficulties. His opponents, both within and without his party, are ever determined to unseat him, and this situation is worsened by the recent' limousine-gate ' scandal; an unnecessary action whose essence tends to question the benefactor's motives and judgment, and whose timing tends to expose the gift as an embarrassing gratification, even to the esteem beneficiaries. Exposing the royal fathers to such public show of inappropriate and insensitive waste indeed smells colonialism! Whether they will reciprocate or retaliate remains to be seen.

As political campaigns get underway, the Emirate of Zuru is noticeably taking an unprecedented importance in the political calculations of Kebbi State. A recent study tour of the area gave an interesting lesson in the emergent status of Zuru Emirate as the new bride of Kebbi politics. Zuru is currently given more attention and a constant presence by all the contending groups for election 2003, than any other area in the state. This is probably because there is this general understanding, if not agreement, that the next Governor of the state ought to come from Zuru Emirate, and this is indeed where Aliero ' s re-election problem starts.

Lately, the Governor takes every official engagement opportunity to visit Zuru ostensibly to further his chances in the area. Recently, he was said to be in the area for the launching of fertilizer sale to farmers of the state for the current farming session. He was also reported to have personally gone to Zuru to welcome the decamping LG chairman from PDP to ANPP, which resulted in a fatal clash of party supporters. Zuru PDP big guns on the other hand are dug-in in the are~ vowing to give Aliero the fight of his political life. While Sambawa Samaila has virtually become a fortnightly visitor to the area, rampaging the place with resources and a brand of what approximates to unnecessary intimidation, the Zuru Generals have virtually moved back home, each said to be assigned his native LGA to deliver if he hopes to cling the party nomination. Thus the presence of other candidates from Gwandu like Sambawa, Khaliel and Garba Koko, seems to negate PDP's political promise to its Zuru faithful, portraying it as a party second-guessing on a political promise. This must be unsettling to its promoters in that area, which may engender a repeat of the 1999 election defeat in protest.

UNPP seems to be the party on the move in the state. It is gaining strength by the day as more and more disaffected members of both PDP and ANPP are said to be finding expression in this new party. The party has firm roots in Zuru, as some of its founding members are from the Emirate, an advantage that the party seems to have over its rivals. So curiously confident of Zuru is the party that its campaign seems to be concentrated in Gwandu and Argungu areas. Curiously too, both PDP and ANPP seem to concentrate theirs in Zuru, probably because for the former, it is for the immediate concern of party primaries.

ANPP and Aliero do not seem to contest the idea of the next Governor coming from Zuru, but what they contend is that this should only come after Aliero has served out his constitutional limit of 8years. Aliero is therefore said to be doing everything

Dan' Asabe from the rebellious and irreconcilable group led by Sahabi NabaIki and Bello Bagudu. Even getting Dan' Asabe to opt out of the race will be a big plus to Aliero, since that will create serious difficulties for the former's p~ners with the Zuru factor. But

politically imaginable to convince the Zuru people to accept his interpretation of their turn in return for favours in the second term and his support in 2007. His support base here seems to centre around local businessmen and contractors, and a few carefully select elders whose electoral value may be questionable in the face of the overwhelming determination of the average Zuru person for a shot at the top for their race.

Zuru PDP chieftains are holding firmly to the promise to them, but as it is now obvious, that promise may not hold. Those said to be contending for the PDP ticket from Zuru are, Musa Bamaiyi~ Tanko Ayuba, Usman Sami, and Danladi Bamaiyi. Gen Magoro's position is not clear. He is either going for senate or waiting to be the consensus candidate, but he cannot be working tirelessly for nothing. From Gwandu, there are Saidu Sambawa, Bello Khaliel, and Garba Koko. Buhari Bala is said to be planning on making up his mind. The entrance of Gwandu candidates may indeed not affect the party's promise to Zuru. It is said to be an anticipatory move in case the latent animosity and mutual distrust within the Zuru group does not allow one candidate to amicably emerge without subsequent repercussion to the party .Except for Magoro perhaps, the other candidates may be hard sells in the other Emirates. On the whole, the quality of the candidates is another worrisome thing for the PDP, except possibly Sambawa, whose reputed money, youth, and unknown political antecedents may be attractive to party elders like Chairman Alhaji Maigishiri.

The UNPP seems to be skillfully engineering itself to power by avoiding the pitfalls of its older rivals. Most of its operatives on the ground in Gwandu and Argungu were members of the political machinery that engineered Aliero's success in a tactical move that outflanked the old men of Kebbi politics in 1999. Faced with a similar challenge and especially the potent Zuru factor, the party's choice of the youthful Dan ' Asabe Abdullahi is intended to outsmart its rivals once again. His candidacy

satisfies both the yearning of Zuru and also maintains the leadership of the younger generation in Kebbi politics, the two contending issues in Zuru and Gwandu respectively.

Adamu ALIERO (ANPP): Curiously, he is not disliked for none performance, but mainly for his methods. He is widely accused of giving most contracts above N20m to his brother Abba, and many party faithful and associates feel alienated and thus resent this Abba-monopoly. Those that are lucky to come near that contract figure get their payments deliberately stalled, while others are forced to sell off their contracts to the same Abba-controlled mafia if they hope to profit from the contract. Thus most of his original political co-travelers like Hon Bello and Atiku Bagudu, Kabiru Turaki, Saidu Sarnaila, Umaru Tafidan Argungu, Abullahi Argungu, Sulaiman I1lo, Sen Bamaiyi, etc, have all jumped ship for differences that are incredibly irreconcilable. None of them seems willing to risk trusting Aliero again, whatever his price ! From his calculations, which might well be correct, Zuru holds the aces in his political survival, as it did in 1999 it seems. He has therefore continued to woe and entice the area, appointing the well connected and respected Alh. Lawan Bawa Zuru as ANPP National Vice Chairman NW Zone and appointing Alh Abdullahi Idris Zuru, as his new chief press spokesman. The Emir of Zuru is said to be impressed by these overtures and those direct to him, and may therefore have shifted grounds. But getting UNPP's Col Dan' Asabe and his liberal group to his side is said to be the next task of Aliero's re- election efforts. It will seek to separate the group led by Col Idris Bala Zuru and Aliero carries another big liability in Zuru, and that is his reported disrespect and abusive tendencies towards the elders of Zuru, especially its generals. Such provocative and inappropriate outbursts are said to have been the main, even if remote, cause of the fatal showdown between ANPP and PDP party supporters in Zuru.

Bello KHALIEL (PDP): He has indeed seriously launched his campaign in Zuru too. As the PDP candidate in 1999, Aliero defeated him, and his imposition from the top is said to be responsible for the defeat of PDP. In Gwandu, his sour political relationship with Garba Koko is still a problem, while in Zuru, he is widely seen as a use-and-dump politician. The general complaint is that no one seems to have benefited from his ministerial largesse, both in Zuru and Gwandu. Khaliel hardly stands a chance, but some say he is in it for the ministerial default again. His confidence is said to hinge on the support of his friends, Magoro and Aliyu Gusau for the re-run of 1999. If Aliyu Gusau could, Magoro may not, because he carries the burden of his people on his head this time around and they would ordinarily expect him to champion their cause rather than the incorrigible ambition of an old friend. But this is politics, and the amount of time and resources that Magoro is reported to be devoting in the area compels a wonder if he will ordinarily be doing so for a friend than for a higher calling. Ordinarily, Magoro is hot expected to be in support of either Usman Sarni or Sen Bamaiyi, or even Garba Koko, for certain political differences. His support for Musa Bamaiyi is at best doubtful, while that of Sambawa is unclear .That leaves his support open for Tanko Ayuba from Zuru or the yet to declare Buhari Bala from Gwandu. Magoro's support is said to be crucial to any of the candidates, and Khaliel is said to believe that he has such a support and is willing to slug it out with Sambawa, naira for dollar! This situation may take its toll on the PDP either way. Those elders opposed to Sambawa are already wondering aloud why a young entrant of yesterday will be allowed to hijack the party with a questionable source of finances.

Saidu SAMAILA (PDP): This young banker is thought to be supported by the Bagudu brothers because of their business relationship, but indications are that he may indeed be on a solo mission. There is this uncomplimentary view dogging his person that in his attempt at edging Khaliel out of contention, he got himself endeared to the former's godfathers in Abuja reportedly at the expense of his friends. Whether Aliyu Gusau will abandon his friend for Sambawa is something doubtful. Other views dismiss this as a mischief intended to tarnish Saidu's image. Atiku and Bello Bagudu are said to be solidly behind his moves, at the same time financing the UNPP, and this is said to be the thing that makes Dan' Asabe's group uncomfortable. Like Aliero, Saidu seems to have a problem of trust with his friends and  associates. Though he probably runs the most elaborate campaigns in terms of money and time, his tours unfortunately leave trails of violence in their wake between his supporters and those of his arch political enemy, Aliero. This situation is already worrying to the elders and security chiefs of the state. Saidu is said to be in the race because he believes he can snatch the PDP nomination by default. He may be intent on exploiting the deep division within the Zuru group, and his seeming closeness to Sen Bamaiyi is said to worry the generals in this regard. The politically enterprising senator can possibly trade their collective aspiration for a reported promise of the Deputy Governorship slot to his choice, if not to himself. Going by their combined resources, this is indeed a workable possibility. But if this fails for Dr Saidu, indications are that he may have a ready reception with his friends in  UNPP, and this may not seat well with people like Idi Bala, Turaki, Tafida and  Dan ' Asabe, etc.

Musa BAMAIYI (PDP): He may be the best Governor that Kebbi State will probably never have, so said one of his campaign managers in Zuru. This mayas well be true, going by his reported impressive performance as the nation's drug czar. But the rather crude image he cut for himself then is unfortunately now proving to be a political liability to his ambition in the current environment. While the age factor may not be in his favour, he is engaged in a seemingly endless family feud with his other brothers, a situation that makes him and his younger brother senator bitter political foes. Being more experienced in Kebbi politics, especially that of Zuru, the young Bamaiyi is said to have deployed everything in his political machinery to cancel out any chances his elder brother may have. It is a general belief even in Zuru that the candidacy of the elder Bamaiyi cannot be a serious one.  Though he has put in a lot of time and resources, most people believe that his managers are just getting themselves employed and paid, because the Zuru General never stood a chance, for he does not seem to have the democratic image for a political contest. Bamaiyi is better off standing solidly behind a better candidate from Zuru and hoping to get a pride of place and the status of a respected elder and kingmaker. His campaign is infact said to have slowed down of late.

Tanko A YUBA. (PDP): Ayuba cuts the image of the winning candidate from Zuru in the PDP nomination contest. He does not have the image problem of Bamaiyi, and his antecedents in government are positive ones, for which his Zuru people are the main beneficiaries. He however needs to get the endorsement of Magoro on one hand, and Senator Bamaiyi on the other, if he hopes to a-void any political ambush. The distrust among Zuru political leaders may rub its people of the quality service Ayuba is said to represent. Though he justifiably flaunts his influence in the creation of the state itself, that may not be sufficiently appealing to the electorates of Gwandu and Argungu where he seems to have no representation at all Moreover, there is said to be this latent misgiving about his liberal religious inclinations even when he is a Muslim.  These potent factors could be a drawback in Ayuba' s chances even in Zuru, since any choice of candidate for a statewide general election must take into consideration the factor of wider acceptability in the face of other credible candidates.  

Usman SAMI. (PDP): The younger brother to the Emir of Zuru and the oldest in politics among the contestants, he is a decampee from the ANPP to PDP, and his political image even in Zuru is said to hardly be an asset. Nobody seems to see his candidacy as serious, but everyone see it as a bargain strategy for political employment or patronage. But he says he is very serious and has vowed to carry his campaign through to the primaries, a move widely seen, even if unfairly, as a deliberate attempt at blocking other Zuru favorites to the advantage of those from Gwandu. It is not sure if his brother still supports his ambition. But this is politics, and anything can happen.

Danladi BAMAIYI. (PDP): He is arguably the kingmaker of Zuru politics. He seems to have his ways and means with the Zuru electorate, because he seems to connect with them more than any other. He is said to believe fervently in the need for a Zuru Governor in 2003, but does not see such a candidate within his party at the moment. Moreover, he is aware that a Zuru Governor will be at the expense of his senate seat,  which should revert to Yauri Emirate. But an alliance with Sambawa could possibly  allow him retain his senate seat.  His political profile got a boost recently when most of his candidates won the  party primaries in the area, inspite of the preferences of other party elders. This may seem to have energized his desire to contest the Governorship inspite of the obvious religious odd As a Christian, he may be an impossible sell in both Gwandu and Argungu, while he could be a hard sell in Yauri and Zuru. Otherwise, he could have been the thorough breed politician that Zuru requires to wrest political power for once.  Having declared his intention to contest inspite of the odds, means that the  Senator has a 'joker in his sleeves', according to those close to him. He can only be in the race for the bargain or for a political ambush, or both. For some curious reason, he is believed to be a financier of the newly registered UNPP, and seems to be negotiating for  a space. He is a consummate politician that spreads his presence and relevance for maximum advantage, and it has often paid off against anticipated odds. He is never to be underestimated, for he remains a credible threat to any opponent in the state. But his real opponents in this case might be the party leadership in Abuja.

Garba KOKO. (PDP): It is still doubtful if he will indeed continue in the race, but indications are that he may continue if only to block Khaliel's chances. He may also be hoping to win sympathy for what is widely perceived as the manipulated defeat he suffered in the previous party primaries. But he still has the Magoro-Aliyu Gusau support for Khaliel to contend with again.

Though he is widely known and respected in Zuru Emirate, and has some political understanding with Senator Bamaiyi, his candidacy like those of Sambawa, Khaliel, Aliero or any other person from Gwandu, will carry a liability as far as the Zuru support

is concerned. If and when Gwandu Emirate's Aliero goes, it will be inequity for another Gwandu person to take over as Governor, from whatever party.

Abdullahi DAN' ASABE. UNPP): This is a young fine gentleman who ought not to be in politics at all, if the Nigerian variant is all there is to partisan politics. He it was, and Idi Bala, Karmashe and Hamid Bawa, that founded the party in Zuru .Today the UNPP is the greatest obstacle to Aliero's return. His chief coordinator, Idi Baja, observed that they are in the UNPP and in the race because they have practically made it the sure route to achieving the aspiration of their people. True to this optimism and confidence,  the party has all but anointed his friend ~ the sole candidate.  Even when Dan ' Asabe is still the relatively less known physically among the candidates, he is surprisingly well accepted and trusted to even those that have only heard of him. There is this air of confidence and optimism for his candidacy, possibly because of the general belief that his sponsors are in the B group.  Curiously, the odds seem to favour him the most among the contending parties: While his virtual nomination unites his party, that of any of the PDP candidates may do otherwise and even provoke a backlash in favour of UNPP, most likely; His youth matches that of Sambawa and Aliero, if age becomes a factor; If Sambawa gets the ticket over the Zuru candidates at the PDP primaries, the party would have exposed the group  as indeed incapable of bringing the ticket to their people as they had earlier promised, and Dan' Asabe's choice by UNPP will therefore compel those in the PDP to support their own son as the most honorable face saving option, irrespective of party affiliation; Moreover, a Sambawa (or Khaliel, or Koko) and Aliero and Dan' Asabe three-way contest, will split Gwandu votes between ANPP and PDP in favour of UNPP. From all indications therefore, the party to watch closely in Kebbi is the UNPP, and as it is often said in its offices in Birnin Kebbi, 'get your valid ticket and be on the winning train'. But does Dan ' Asabe have enough gas to last the often torturous train drive/ride to the Government House?  

Abubakar MUSA. (NDP): This first civilian Governor of the State is said to have brought the NDP to the State. But the growth of the party here seems to have been stunted by that of UNPP. The Yauri man is said to want to try the Government House once again, using a new platform possibly in order to by-pass a conventional wisdom.  The few remaining loyalist from his earlier government do not seem to have the resources to help him build up the party. He will need to put in considerably more in time and resources for the NDP to make any meaningful impact here, because all other parties are having a good head start, even in Yauri Emirate.  He obviously has not been successful in selling the party as an IBB associate, and any ambition he may have will be in difficulty, since nearly all of his political colleagues are still in the PDP he left. Whether he will indeed remain in the race or hire the party out to someone more willing and eager remains to be seen.

In Zuru Emirate, the presence of the party is hardly noticeable, as there is no noticeable personality that claims its membership. And going by the current conventional wisdom here, the former Governor and his people are expected to show their gratitude by reciprocating the political credit Zuru gave Yauri in support of Musa's first coming.  Yauri is not contesting this claim in any of the parties, but Musa's current candidacy seems to do just that, and the road to the Government House for him will, this time around, be a different ball game.