The Dangerous Political Landscape of Nigeria, as the 2015 Election Looms

By

Tam Alex

tamkemabonta@gmail.com

Every election in Nigeria since 2003 has been dire – evident by the abysmal loss of lives during these periods. Nigeria, with good reason has always been thought to fizzle out of existence after every election. This same dire feeling pervades the atmosphere as the February 2015 election draws near.

The reason why this macabre feeling shows its head at every election is because Nigerians have refused to understand the roots behind the instability of the political landscapes within their state. This instability, like a balloon dangerously being stretched beyond its elastic limits is threatening to explode and the February election might just be the pin prick.

I have tried to explore the roots on these dangerous landscapes that threaten to turn Nigeria into an abandoned parking lot when they shift for the worse.

Preamble

In 1999, as Nigeria was transitioning from a military dictatorship to a democracy a tacit agreement was made by all the political parties involved in that election to field Yoruba candidates, as a compensation to them for the 1993 elections won by their ‘brother’ Chief Moshood Abiola but was annulled by General Ibrahim Babangida.

This lead to an unwritten agreement among the stake holders of the most formidable party (the People’s Democratic Party – PDP) that there would be a rotation of power between the north and the south every 8 years. So every 8 years the party would field a presidential candidate from the north or the south as the case may be. This arrangement was called zoning, which seems to be a shrewd political solution to the constant power struggle between the north and the south. So Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military head of state won the election and became president for the next 8 years. For the period of his tenure there was ‘relative’ stability within many political spheres, as the north was waiting for their turn.

Finally in 2007, Obasanjo’s administration was done, and he sponsored Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua, a Hausa-Fulani and northerner which was in fulfilment of the unwritten agreement made 8 years earlier – though he used questionable means to achieve this. Obasanjo eve stated in a televised address that the election "could not be described as perfect"¹. Though Yar’ Adua was a northerner there were concerns as to why Obasanjo chose him to be his successor. This may be because Yar’ Adua’s elder brother Shehu was the friend and de facto vice president of Obasanjo during stint as a military head of state in the 70s².

Yar’ Adua eventually died in the third year of his first term and his vice president Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner became president, as the constitution states but putting a dent in the unwritten agreement of zoning within the political party³.

Now this is the general mistake Nigerian politicians make when making political manoeuvres. They forget to have contingency plans in case fate the capricious goddess decides to play a tricky one on them.

Zoning was an astute political arrangement to the political tensions in the atmosphere in the country at that time, but its proponents forgot that a person could die and that according to the constitution the vice president – who is usually not from the same part of the country as his boss – becomes president.

Jonathan had to be president, but with the elections approaching in 2011 the northern political stake holders were agitated since Jonathan had the right by the constitution to run for president if he wanted to, but this would destroys a political arrangement – zoning -  that was meant to quill this kind of agitation. So Obasanjo with the higher echelons of the PDP got Jonathan to agree that he would only run for one term. This again was another smart political move and was fairly popular in the country, because for the first time the top job in the country would be filled by a South-Southerner⁴. But as usual with Nigerian politicians, they forgot to forecast what would happen if Jonathan acts in bad faith. They did not get him to sign a written document that could stand against him in court if he goes in breach of contract. This he would have done gladly, because at that time, he wanted to be president but did not have the political capital. So he needed the help and support of these powerful politicians within his party if he was going to be successful against his formidable contenders like Muhammadu Buhari (CPC), Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP) and Nuhu Ribadu (AC) – all northerners, because it was ‘their turn’.

Into his first official term as president, Jonathan began to build his political capital, while telling the media that he had no interest in running for presidency in 2015⁵. Jonathan after building a powerful political base went on to deny he acquiesced to any agreement⁶. And since nobody has been able to produce any documented agreement, it is safe to say that the agreement was a verbal.

But his administration has been criticized an accused for mismanagement and has lost face with public opinion. He removed petrol subsidy that led to a shutdown of the country for a week in protests⁷, he has also proved incapable to handling the Boko Haram insurgency, an extremist Islamist group that has been the scourge of the state since 2009. This ineptitude became a world media sensation when 272 girls were kidnapped on the 14th of April 2014. All these did not stop Jonathan from announcing his candidacy for the presidential election in 2015 in November 2014, and as evidence shows he has built up the political capital to run with or without the help of certain political behemoths.

The North/South power struggle

The Hausa-Fulani could be said to be the most successful ethnic group, politically in Africa. They are one of the most widely dispersed and culturally diverse ethnic groups on the continent. Their reign in Nigeria began when Usman Dan Fodio a Fulani preacher led a Jihad to liberate the northern part of Nigeria from the ungodly and corrupt Hausa states in the nineteenth century. His crusade was so successful that it even threatened the Yoruba’s of the west. This is the reason why there are Yoruba Muslims today, and why the Emir of Ilorin – a proud and ancient Yoruba town – is ruled by a Fulani Emir. Dan Fodio established Emirates in all the conquered states, where he left his loyalists to be Emirs, but would become his vassals that would swear fealty to him the Sultan of the Sokoto Caliphate⁸.

Since then an age old feudalistic society existed in the north with the Hausa-Fulani as the lords of the entire domain. All other rulers or administrators ruled and served at their pleasure. This continued for about 100 years until the British conquered the caliphate in 1903. Then in 1914 both the Southern and the Northern protectorates were amalgamated into one polity – Nigeria. The Hausa-Fulani proved themselves again to be masters of political manoeuvres; they understood that they could not defeat the supreme military power of the British in a confrontational means, so they resorted to a diplomatic solution. The structures of the whole caliphate would remain, but they would be left to rule at the pleasure of His Majesty the King. Considering the political climate of the Sokoto caliphate, as observed by the British, which was not very much different from that of Europe some centuries ago, they acquiesced to the deal; as long as the northern people would remain docile their feudal lords could remain in charge.

By this time within the caliphate it was common knowledge that the rulers of the caliphate were ordained by God, and the people had a religious obligation to follow. This is the reason why very few Islamic Empires in the East some 1000 years ago hardly suffered any dissent, unlike the political mad house Europe was then with the reformation, the crusades, Alexander IV, Henry Tudor and the disestablishment of the Roman Church in England - popes and kings manipulating themselves for their own selfish means.

But unlike the north, the south proved much more difficult to conquer especially with the industrious and egalitarian societies of the east and west. In these places, though traditional rulers reigned they were very much ceremonial leaders and the people could rise to positions of prestige by their own hard work. Nobody had the God given right to rule anybody.

So it was when Nigeria became independent in 1960 that the British left power in the hands of the Northerners: with Sir Tafawa Balewa a Bageri as prime minister serving at the pleasure of the Sarduna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello a Fulani and an unquestionable descendant of Usman Dan Fodio.

But this is where the power struggle really began. The Fulani only know one thing, Statecraft – an art they have mastered over two centuries. This is why anybody who rules Nigeria has to do so with their blessing. But now, since 1991, a Fulani man (Yar’ Adua) has only ruled the country for 3 years out of 15 years. This, many powerful Northerners find unacceptable. For there to be avoidance of violence, politics has come to the rescue. It is through political arrangements – compromising for the greater good - that people of different ideologies can live together in peace. The problem with Nigeria is that everybody wants peace but nobody wants to relinquish power. This is why the arrangement, called zoning would have been a politically sound one if its proponents thought it out fully and prepared for all contingency. The Northerners want power back, and they are determined to get it by any means necessary. In political intrigue all is fair game, and in a country were systems set up to protect individuals like the justice system and law enforcement systems are very much handicapped, the dangers cannot be overstated.

''When I say that the Presidency must come to the north next year I am referring to the Hausa-Fulani core north and not any northern Christian or Muslim minority tribe… The Christians in the north such as the Berom, the Tiv, the Kataf, the Jaba, the Zuru, the Sayyawa, the Bachama, the Jukun, the Idoma, the Burra, the Kilba, the Mbula, and all the others are nothing and the Muslim minorities in the north, including the Kanuri, the Nupe, the Igbira, the Babur, the Shuwa Arabs, the Marghur, the Bade, the Bura, the Igalla, the Zerma, the Bariba, the Gbari and all the others know that when we are talking about leadership in the north and in Nigeria, Allah has given it to us, the Hausa-Fulani.” Those were the words of Ismaila Gwarzo, a former National Security Adviser to former Head of State, General Sani Abacha In a bold op-ed. Gwarzo went on to say “We also captured Ilorin, killed their local King and installed our Fulani Emir. We took that ancient town away from the barbarian Yoruba and their filthy pagan gods. We liberated all these places and all these people by imposing Islam on them by force… It was either the Koran or the sword and most of them chose the Koran. In return for the good works of our forefathers Allah, through the British, gave us Nigeria to rule and to do with as we please… Since 1960 we have been doing that and we intend to continue. The Igbo tried to stop us in 1966 and between 1967 and 1969 they paid a terrible price. They were brought to heel and since then they have been broken… No Goodluck or anyone else will stop us from taking back our power next year. We will kill, maim, destroy and turn this country into Africa's biggest war zone and refugee camp if they try it.”⁹

The Northern Elders Forum, a pressure group has said that “there is no going back on the presidency returning to the North in 2015”.¹⁰ on the 14 of October 2014, the same group said anyone who votes for Jonathan and the PDP in the 2015 elections, would be deemed an enemy of the North.¹¹

Threats too from the south have not been very tacit. A former Niger Delta militant, Mujahid Asari-Dokubo said “2015 is more than do-or-die. It is our very survival that is being challenged, and we must tell them: you are a man and I am a man, we are going to meet on the battle field”.¹²

What is most prescient here is that those who clamour for Jonathan to remain in power are doing this out of pure sentiments. “It’s our turn” most of them say. An argument could be made that the south-south has had their turn in the last 5 years and should relinquish power to another group. Everybody wants their turn; Obasanjo from the South-West  had his stint for 8 years, Jonathan from the South-South has had his stint for 5 years, while the late Yar’ Adua from the North ruled for only 3 years; so when it comes to ‘turns’, the North possesses a better claim than others.

This is the political atmosphere that Jonathan is blinding himself to. The same way Aguyi Ironsi blinded himself in late 60s, instead of paying attention to the political climate and acting accordingly by installing Dipcharima as the prime minister, as would have been the right thing since he had been nominated acting prime minister by members of Balewa’s cabinet and given the perceived ethno-political bent of the January 15 1966 Coup. He went on to dissolve the structures of government and consolidate his power, paving a path into the darkest times of Nigerian history.¹³

The rise of the an unexpected and formidable opposition – APC

In February 2013 the All Progressives Congress APC, was formed by the merging of the four most powerful opposition parties. These parties include: ACN; Action Congress of Nigeria, ANPP; All Nigeria’s Peoples party, CPC; Congress for Progressive Change and a faction of APGA; All Progressives Grand Alliance.¹⁴  

One thing is certain, after this merger the political landscape of Nigeria shifted in ways we are still figuring out. Never in Nigeria since 1999 has the position of the ruling party PDP been more untenable.

The intrigues within the political sector of Nigeria this merger brought with it is worth considering and analysing, because it did not just create a powerful dent in the PDP’s fifteen  year hegemony, it has also made the political battleground more sinister than ever.

First, disgruntled members within the PDP found a home they could defect to. These members included the five state governors, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and some other party chieftains. The rebel state governors include governors are Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers state) Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara State), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano state), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto state) and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa state). These defections increased the number of state controlled by the opposition to fourteen leaving PDP with twenty – the biggest blow to the party’s stranglehold over the nation yet.

Second, since the coming of APC, the ruling party has many times not-so-subtly accused them of being sponsors to the Islamist militant group Boko Haram, a group that has left destruction and disaster in its wake since 2009, especially in the north-east of the country, which is largely controlled by the APC. The PDP went on to describe the APC and its leaders “a hypocritical lot, wolves in sheep skin, devils who, through their utterances, stoke the fires of violence by night only to wear messianic robes in the morning to shed crocodile tears for their victims”¹⁵.

The political intrigue between the two parties, one could agree, borders on a psychopathic tendency to attain or keep power, for personal gain instead of for national interests.

To stop or at least slow down the ‘hostile takeover’ of most of the governorships or even the presidency in 2015, the PDP began manoeuvres against the opposition to secure its position in the country.

These carefully orchestrated machinations include filing a suit against the dissident governors urging the federal courts to remove these men since they are no longer members of the party that got them elected to office¹⁶, and instigation of impeachment process of two northern APC state governors with PDP dominated state legislatures. Murtala Nyako, the governor of Adamawa state was impeached while the attack was not so successful on Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, the governor of Nasarawa.¹⁷ 

So far b0th parties continue to make statements that are seditious in nature and could eventually lead to further devastation of national security. Bola Ahmed Tinuba, an APC leader, and former governor of Lagos state with tremendous influence and political capital in the south-west, said in April 2014 “it is going to be rig and roast. We are prepared not to go to court but to drive you out ¹⁸ …” and in July 2014 Governor Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom state threatened “those who want to take power through the back door will die. They will die! And PDP will continue”.¹⁹

The Nigerian Political Mind

It is important for one to understand the political mind of Nigerians and how it relates to the dangerous political atmosphere that pervades the country. Nigerian political parties do not operate on ideologies; these parties are used as fronts for getting power. The concept behind the political party system of government is abstract to Nigerians. They do not understand what it means to be conservative or liberal or progressive. Nuhu Ribadu, a former 2011 presidential candidate for the now defunct ACN said there was no real difference between the character and ideas of the two parties, when he defected to PDP on the 16th of August.²⁰

Concepts like the ‘State’ and ‘Constitution’ are still very abstract to the average Nigerian political mind. They see ‘President Jonathan’ instead of ‘the office the president’. They cannot seem to understand why when a man takes the post of the President he can no longer do as he likes, say some things and publicly censure his opponents.

Most foreigners or outsiders would think that the PDP describing the APC whose foremost leaders (Muhammadu Buhari – their current Presidential candidate – and Bola Ahmed Tinubu), both Muslims, as a “Nigeria’s Muslim Brotherhood”, and a “party of bloodthirsty, religious and ethnic bigots averse to the unity of the country”²¹ should have no effect. But Nigeria is a country where ethno-religious sentiments run deep and such statements can easily incite violence across ethnic and religious lines.

Nigerians have powerful attachment to their land and their age old traditions. The stunt the British played in 1914, by bringing together over 250 ethnic groups into one polity, something that would never have happened otherwise, could be traced as one of the roots of Nigeria’s problem with political instability. The Nigerian constitution still gives room and allowance to age old barbaric customs. It is still common that when some traditional kings are buried with human heads, or live human beings who are meant to answer to their every whim in the world beyond, when they die. During these periods curfews are announced and the hunt for human heads begins, the constitutional government turns a blind eye. It is also common for men to marry underage girls and even debate in the National assembly if child marriage should remain in the constitution.²²

During the colonial years, the British government reduced the power of sharia law in the north but after many years of military dictatorship that ended in the 1999, many people in the north began to clamour for sharia. Twelve northern governors decided to capitalize on this and instituted sharia laws into state penal codes²³. This led to protest by the Christian minorities in these regions that eventually culminated in the deaths of over 2000 people.²⁴

The well-educated Nigerian who lives in the suburbs, has college education and engages in social circles that consists of people with the same social background, but different ethnic and religious backgrounds with him or her, would find it difficult to believe that there are many Nigerians who have never had contact with people of different religious and ethnic backgrounds. He would also not understand these people would react violently when they are made to follow a leader from a different religious institution or ethnic background. These individuals like to believe that all of Nigeria thinks like them and have the same values and ideologies shared in their small social groups.

Not paying attention to the religious trajectories in Nigeria within the political arena is a sin that almost always never goes unpunished. Many politicians have been known to pander to religious leader for support. Many of these religious leaders have considerable influence on a substantial portion of the population. This influence borders on the demagogic kind, that if one of these leaders were to ask his church congregation of about two million people to vote for a certain individual, there is almost no doubt that that individual would get all two million votes.

In October 2013, President Jonathan led thousands of Christians on pilgrimage to Isreal – a first by any Christian president²⁵. Consequently in October 2014, President Jonathan led another group of Nigerians on pilgrimage to Israel. This time he had in tow some of the most powerful religious leaders in the country²⁶. Individuals whose congregation could make real difference where they to vote for him. Some of these men include Bishop David Oyedepo, the president of the Living Faith Church Worldwide, which has an estimated membership of 6 million people²⁷. The primate of the Anglican Communion in Nigeria was also part of the president’s entourage, sending a not-so-subtle message to the estimated 18 million Nigerian Anglicans²⁸. One could argue that Jonathan’s visit to the Vatican on the 22 of March 2014, was a political move to capture the votes of the estimated 20 million Nigerian catholics.²⁹

In a country where realities like this are dire, it would be a great tragedy for any one with idealistic sentiments to ignore these realities. It therefore goes without saying that when it comes to the strategy and tactics of Nigerian politics religion must never be ignored

The legends of the ‘Big Man’ and the ‘Godfather’ still reign supreme.³⁰ The Nigerian political mind has a serious contempt for the concepts of ‘due process’ and ‘having-ones-day-in-court’. It is very common for criminals to be killed extra-judicially by angry mobs. An offended rich man could pay the police to beat up a former employee, so as to teach him a lesson. And when a bold individual speaks against these things he or she is seen an aberration and immediately shut down. ‘Powerful’ men are known to blatantly flaunt court orders with impunity. Once a man becomes rich he is widely celebrated and even given state honours, no one bothers to know how he became rich, since just the other day he was a normal citizen living on a merger wage, but as he assumed high political office he becomes a billionaire over night – no one ever wonders or asks why.

The average Nigerian cannot understand why an individual whose brother was killed should not kill the perpetrator as revenge. The concept of the state having a monopoly on violence is nonsense to the Nigerian political mind.

The 21st century politics in Nigeria takes a dangerous resemblance to the politics of Europe in the middle-ages. In tandem with the nefarious nature of political activities in 13th century Europe, the Nigerian political arena of present day include malevolent activities like extortions, kidnapping, debauchery, lechery (it is a common sight to see a Nigerian statesman or politician publicly having multiple mistresses without fear of reproach from the media or elsewhere) and assassinations.

On the 7th of May a PDP leader, Eshiet Usung-Inwang was assassinated near Eket, a small town in Akwa-Ibom state, by allegedly political rivals³¹ – the implication of it being the APC was not lost.

The residence of former Imo state governor, Ikedi Ohakim was levelled by thugs just a couple of day before he announced his intent to run for senate, leading him to put a halt to the announcement. He blamed the attack on his political enemies.³²

Political assassinations have been the hallmark of almost every election since the 1999 transition to democracy.

Just before the 2007 elections Funsho Williams, a politician seeking the gubernatorial ticket for the PDP in Lagos was found in his home tied up, stabbed and strangled. Williams had become very popular with the people of Lagos and for the first time had given PDP a real chance to control Lagos.³³

Ayo Daramola, a PDP gubernatorial aspirant in Ekiti state was found dead with multiple stab and gun shot wounds in his hometown in Ijan-Ekiti on the August 14 2006.³⁴

Otunba Dipo Dina, another governorship aspirant was shot dead on January 25 2010, around Ota, Ogun state. Dina was supposed to participate in the 2011 elections.³⁵

Every time these assassinations happen the political opponents of the victims are accused. But that is all that happens. Nobody ever gets arrested or indicted because of the infrastructural defects within the structures of Nigeria’s Law enforcement agencies that cripple their ability to undertake investigations of this kind.

Power and glory are the desires for many politicians and statesmen in the world and as a rule: the easiest way to get glory is to get power³⁶. Otto von Bismarck concurred to this when he said “Patriotism was probably the motive force of but a few statesmen… much more frequently, it was the ambition, the desire to command, to be admired and to become famous”³⁷. Men would do anything to get power and glory no matter how devious and unscrupulous. This insatiable desire to command as Bismarck says, is inherent in politicians around the world and not peculiar to Nigeria politicians. But in Nigerian politics it is extremely difficult to curb the excesses of men on their quest to power. There are no rules as to what is allowed or not allowed, and in situations where rules exist they are powerless because no one enforces them.

Since the concept of a state is very abstract to many Nigerians, it is no wonder that the state finds itself highly handicapped in developing systems to effectively achieve its basic functions as a state – protecting the lives and property of it citizens. If these basic functions cannot be effectively carried out, then it becomes very difficult for the state to manage the economic, social and political systems of the nation.

The Scourge of Boko Haram

The Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (“People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad” in Arabic), an extremist Islamist group popularly known by the global and local media as Boko Haram, has shifted the political landscapes of Nigeria into regions that reek of the macabre.

Its wanton destruction of life and property especially in the north-eastern part of the country led the president to declare a state of emergency in some of the states in that geopolitical zone in May 2013³⁸.

Boko Haram has left death and disaster in its wake since it began its violent escapades in 2009. Since then more than 5,000 people have been killed in Boko Haram-related violence. U.N. and Nigerian officials report that more than 6 million Nigerians have been affected and more than 300,000 have been displaced³⁹.

Boko Haram has left most of the Nigerian population paranoid. It has turned brother against brother, friends against friends and has led to a blame game between the ruling party and the opposition.

The Boko Haram insurgency in the north-east has led to deliberations as to the possibility of having polling station within the zone. On the 16th of December 2013 the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Attahiru Jega, said that because of the insurgency in the north-east, elections may not hold in the affected states.⁴⁰

This led to an uproar by the opposition party who has a formidable presence in the north-eastern party of the country. They accused Jega of conniving with the PDP to alienate a large number of their supporters from the 2015 elections. The APC warned that it will not accept “the deliberate disenfranchisement of large swathes of the citizenry”⁴¹.  

With Boko Haram’s significant presence in the north-eastern part of the nation and the insecurity it possess to the lives of voters and polling officials – including the fact that the legitimacy of the winner of the 2015 elections could be called to question were a whole geopolitical zone isolated from the polling – shows how dire the political situation is and how sticky the aftermath could get.

Conclusion

It is obvious that the Nigerian political arena is very much affected by the religio-ethnic sentiments within the Nigerian state. These sentiments run deep as people build their entire lives around them. One should not presume to ignore them with impunity. The need to stand behind ones kinsman far surpasses the need to stand behind justice in the Nigerian state. Nigeria imported many institutions from the west wholesale without considering her values and cultures, which these institutions require to be effective. It is important that Nigerians begin to understand their realities.

Bertolt Brecht was known to have said “the worst illiterate is the political illiterate. He hears nothing, sees nothing, and takes no part in political life. He doesn’t seem to know that the cost of living, the price of beans, of flour, of rent, of medicines, all depend on political decisions. He even prides himself on his political ignorance, sticks out his chest and says he hate politics. He doesn’t know, the imbecile, that from his political non-participation comes he prostitute, the abandoned child, the robber and worst of all, corrupt officials, the lackeys of exploitative multinational corporations”.

The political illiterate Brecht is trying to describe is an embodiment of many Nigerians. Nigerians always stay blind to complex political dynamics and look for the easy way out, which is practically impossible. Nigeria is a country of over 250 ethnic groups speaking over 500 different languages with proud and ancient cultures. To get Nigerians to live together in peace it is important for Nigerians to get engaged in her complex political spheres. It is by becoming politically involved, taking into cognizance the social, religious, ethnic and economic dynamics of the Nigerian people, that a model of effective governance can be achieved to make Nigeria a state of envy to the world.  This is the only way Nigeria can achieve political stability which will automatically lead social and economic development.

Notes

¹ “How to steal yet another election”, the economist, 19 April 2007

² Major General Shehu Musa Yar’ Adua (March 5, 1943 – December 8, 1997) was a Nigerian businessman, soldier, and politician. He was the older brother of current Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua. When Olusegun Obasanjo was military head of state from 1976 until 1979, Yar'Adua was his Vice President. For Further reading on Shehu Yar’ Adua: Shehu Musa Yar'Adua: A Life of Service (Lynne Rienner Pub., 2004). 

³ “Nigeria's president Yar'Adua dies”, Aljazeera, 6 May 2010 

⁴From independence in 1960 to January 1966, the prime minister (Abubakar Tafawa Balewa) was from the north east and from 1966 to 2007, one south-easterner (Major General J. T. U. Aguiyi-Ironsi) ruled for six months and two south-westerners (Olusegun Obasanjo and Ernest Shonekan) for less than twelve years, while seven northerners (Yakubu Gowon, Murtala Mohamed, Shehu Shagari, Muhammadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida, Sani Abacha and Abdulsalami Abubakar) held the top post for the remaining 29 years

⁵“I’ll not contest 2015 election – Jonathan”, Vanguard, 1 February 2011.

⁶“2015: I didn’t sign one-term deal with anybody – Jonathan”, Vanguard, 30 September 2013

⁷ “Nigerians plan mass strike as fuel subsidy ends”, Amanda Morrow, global post, 2 January 2012

⁸ Mervyn Hiskett, The Sword of Truth: The Life and Times of the Shehu Usuman Dan Fodio, New York: Oxford University Press, 1973: very seminal for those who want to study the travails of the great conqueror.

⁹ “NIGERIA IS ALLAH’S GIFT TO THE FULANI”, Ismaila Gwarzo, former National Security Adviser, the Nigerian voice, 4 October 2014

¹⁰ “2015: power shift to North not negotiable – northern leaders”, The Nation (Lagos), 26 October 2013.

¹¹ “2015: We’ll regard anyone that votes for PDP as enemy of the North – NEF”, Vanguard, 15 October 2014.

¹² “2015 more than do-or-die, Asari-Dokubo insists”, New Telegraph, 3 May 2014

¹³ OPERATION 'AURE'- The Northern Military Counter-Rebellion of 1966 By  Nowa Omoigui

¹⁴ The All Progressives Congress (APC) is a social-democratic political party in Nigeria, formed on 6 February 2013. The party was formed by an alliance of Nigeria's three biggest opposition parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) - and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – to create a formidable force to take on the People's Democratic Party in the 2015 elections.

¹⁵ “Fani-Kayode’s revelation: we have been vindicated – PDP”, statement by Olisa Metuh, PDP national publicity secretary, 3 June 2014, at www.peoplesdemocraticparty.net. *** find this article and read it****

¹⁶ “Defection: Court adjourns suit against 5 govs sine-die”, Vanguard (Lagos), 25 June 2014.

^{17 “}Botched Impeachment Has Made Al-Makura More Popular – APC Chieftains”, leadership, 11 August 2014

¹⁸ “Words of Fire”, Tell, 7 July 2014.

¹⁹ “Akpabio’s ungubernatorial demeanour”, Thisday, 25 July 2014

²⁰ “Ribadu defends defection to PDP”, The Punch, 18 August 2014.

²¹ “PDP Condemns Dominance of APC Executive by Muslims”, Thisday, 8 January 2014.

²² There were discussions within Nigeria’s Senate to remove section 29 (4)(b) of the Nigerian Constitution. The Constitution was however not amended because of the uproar within the Senate over the amendment when Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima said that removing section 29 (4)(b) from the Constitution would go against Islamic customary laws. More at http://thelawyerschronicle.com/child-marriage-in-nigeria-the-senate-to-the-rescue/

²³ “Political Shari’a”? Human Rights and Islamic Law in Northern Nigeria, Human Rights Watch, p. 18. 

²⁴ The “Miss World Riots”: Continued Impunity for Killings in Kaduna, Human Rights Watch, vol. 15, no. 13(A), July 2003, http://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/07/22/miss-world-riots-0, pp. 4-5.

²⁵ “Jonathan leaves for pilgrimage, official visit to Israel”, Thisday, 23 October 2013.

²⁶ “Jonathan leaves for pilgrimage to Israel”, Vanguard, 23 October 2014

²⁷ Oyedepo made the disclosure at a breakfast meeting with members of Omu-Aran Government Secondary School Old Boys Association (OGSSOBA) at the Landmark University (owned by the church of which he serves as its chancellor), Omu-Aran, Kwara.  READ MORE: http://www.naij.com/350504-oyedepo-reveals-winners-chapel-population.html

²⁸ The church of Nigeria: Anglican Communion’s website estimates the number of Anglicans to be 18 million.

²⁹ “President Jonathan visits Vatican, meets with Pope”, the herald, 22 March 2014

³⁰ Olufemi Taiwo, Africa must be great, Bookcraft, Ibadan, 2011: In the chapter Process, not outcome: Why Trusting your Leader, Godfather, Ethnic Group or Chief May not Best Secure your Advantage, he dutifully address the horrifying situation of ‘godfatherism’ in the Nigerian political sphere.

³¹ “Gunmen assassinate PDP chieftain in Eket, Akwa Ibom”, The Guardian (Lagos), 9 May 2014.

³² “Imo Bomb Blast: Ohakim holds ‘political enemies’ responsible”, Leadership, 20 May 2014.

³³ “BREAKING NEWS: Lagos State PDP Gubernatorial Candidate, Funsho Williams Assassinated!”, Sahara Reporters, 26 July 2006

³⁴ “Breaking News: Prof Ayo Daramola, Ekiti Gubernatorial Aspirant Assassinated”, Village Square, 14 August 2006

³⁵ “Breaking News: AC Ogun State 2007 Guber Candidate, Otunba Dipo Dina Assassinated”, Village Square, 2011

³⁶ Bertrand Russell, Power: A New Social Analysis, George Allen and Unwin, London, 1938

³⁷ Walter Isaacson, Kissinger: A Biography, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1992, pg. 108

³⁸ “BREAKING NEWS: Jonathan Declares State of Emergency In Borno, Yobe and Adamawa State”, Sahara Reporters, 14 May 2013

³⁹ U.N. Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Humanitarian Bulletin: Nigeria, Issue 03, April 2014

⁴⁰ “2015: INEC rules out election in states under emergency rule”, Thisday, 17 December 2013.

⁴¹ “Rumbles in Borno, Yobe, Adamawa over Jega’s comments on 2015”, Daily Trust, 22 December 2013