The 2016

The 2016 'BRICS' India (GOA) Summit: - Wether Nigeria

Abubakar Atiku

The 8th gathering of leaders of the five world's leading emerging economies and markets namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (representing about 43 percent of the world's population) under the umbrella name or acronym ‘BRICS’ concluded on Sunday, 16th of October 2016 in the ancient Indian city of Goa.

While this very important gathering was going on (15 - 16 October 2016); with very important and far- reaching economic, social and political and security issues being discussed by the leaders of this exclusive club, events in Nigeria were equally happening, albeit differently from the Goa event.

For instance, Nigeria that is supposed to be a very strong member of this exclusive club of emerging economies and markets but whatever reason or reasons it isn't, was consumed in an unexpected and unwarranted first family cross fire war of words involving President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) and his lovely and loving wife, Aisha Muhammadu Buhari (AMB).

The unpalatable exchanges happened due largely as a result of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) Hausa Service interview granted by AMB and aired to global Hausa language listeners. The interview got translated into English and other languages across the globe and became a very serious topical issue of analyses by the mainstream global media and the ubiquitous social media channels and outlets. The rest is now history.

What matters here in this piece is what Nigeria missed out from the concluded 2016 BRICS Indian Summit. Although not a member of this exclusive club, Nigeria stands to benefit from the relevance of the wider developmental agenda discussed at the Summit hosted and chaired by the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi.

To begin with, the BRICS economic bloc is a sub-set of the Group of Twenty (G-20) Worlds’s most industrially developed economies and or World's largest emerging industrial economies. All member nations of BRICS equally belong to the G-20 economic bloc. The other very important global exclusive economic group is the Group of Eight (G-8) World’s most industrially developed nations. Russia equally belongs to the G-8 as well.

The Republic of South Africa (RSA) is a member of the BRICS exotic exclusive club. And, Nigeria is not a member of any one of these very influential global exclusive economic blocs.

RSA is the second largest African economy (Nigeria being the largest) and also is the 25th in the world in terms of population (0.74% of the total world’s population or 55.129, 964 million people) according the Worldometers.info - based on the latest United Nations (UN) estimates.

Nigeria on the other hand is listed as the 7th largest in terms of world's population (2.48% of world population or 188, 414, 346 million people) according to Worldometers.info - based on the latest UN estimates. The significance of the above economic and demographic comparison is to underscore the point that Nigeria ought to be a member of at least one of these leagues of clubs and be a direct and not indirect beneficiary of their decisions whenever such decisions are made from time to time by members of these clubs.

It is a fact that decisions reached at the end of Summits under the umbrella of any one of these groupings no matter how, usually have some impacts on the rest of the global economy in general and Nigeria in particular, to say the least. Hence, this justifies this attempt to do an ex-post review of concluded 2016 BRICS Summit. That said, the rest of this piece focuses on the key issues or points that need the serious attention of the Nigerian government vis-a-vis the just concluded 2016 BRICS Summit that took place in India.

As usual with any international Summit, a Declaration (rather than a Communiqué) is issued. The contents of the Declaration are usually the summation of all the issues of the Summit’s agenda supposedly discussed and mutually agreed upon to a larger extend. Thus, the 8^th BRICS Summit produced 109 paragraphs or 7,322 worded declarations tagged “Goa Declaration” - named after the host Indian city of Goa. This Declaration contained virtually every issue of significance in the global arena that directly or indirectly has bearing on all the member countries of the club collectively, individually and or shared interest (s) among or between member nations. Some of the issues deal with extra-territorial concerns to a larger scale. Now, the big question is what is the relevance of the Goa Declaration to Nigeria?

The Relevance of Goa Declaration to Nigeria

From the onset, it may seem very stupid to think of the relevance of decisions reached at the 2016 BRICS Summit vis-à-vis Nigeria, a non-member country! But, in a very highly interconnected world that exists today, no nation can be said to be totally immune or unaffected from the action or inaction of any nation or group of nations no matter how far away in terms of geographical location that nation is from where the activity took place or the theatre of an event with international dimensions, to say the least. Nigeria is never mentioned anywhere in the 7,322-worded Declaration, unlike the Republic of South Africa (RSA) that is a member nation. Therefore, why should any Nigerian for that matter bother about the relevance of the Goa Declaration to Nigeria?

The answer to this fantastic question is very easy or simple. Nigeria matters anywhere in the world that Africa is discussed regarding any matter directly or indirectly bearing on the African Content. As earlier mentioned above, Nigeria is second to none on the African Continent in terms of both population size and economic scale.

Therefore, whatever happens anywhere in the world in general and on the African Continent in particular is likely to have direct and or indirect ramification, consequence and or implication on Nigeria. Take for example, the Goa Declaration mouthed general and specific support to the African Union (AU) Agenda 2063 and other associated issues of main concern to the AU; including conflict resolution, terrorism, regional integration and sustainable development among other issues with which AU member states are currently facing challenges.

For instance, Nigeria is currently facing both economic and internal security challenges of unprecedented scales and dimensions never experienced since the aftermath of its civil war years of 1966-1970. Therefore, any declared reaffirmation of continued support to the AU in addressing security challenges such as terrorism and post-conflict reconstruction on the African Continent must of necessity be of relevance and interest to Nigeria and thus, cannot be ignored by the Nigerian government. For example, considering the enormous financial resources required in the fight against armed insurgencies in the Northeast, the Niger Delta and elsewhere in Nigeria. And, the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the Northeast and the Niger Delta regions are also big ticket items needing huge amount of financial resources from the national treasury. Hence, these issues fall within the purview of the Goa Declaration within the context of support for the AU Agenda 2063.

Furthermore, the operationalization of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) – formerly referred to as the BRICS Development Bank; its domestication on the African Continent in the Republic of South Africa cannot be equally ignored by the Nigerian government. According to the founders of the NDB, one of its main objectives is to start funding infrastructure projects in the developing countries among others. In addition, according to President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, the NDB African Regional Centre which is being established in South Africa will pay particular attention to project preparation, funding and the implementation of Continental projects.

Thus, here again, within the context of the objectives of the NDB, as Nigeria is financially handicapped and is facing massive infrastructure decay and deficits across all the sectors of its economy, the NDB is a great window of opportunity for Nigeria to explore for infrastructure funding. The current domestic sources of fund raising to bridge the huge financing gap of the 2016 Budget are grossly inadequate. For instance, the estimated N2.2 trillion (US$11bn - US$15bn) 2016 budget shortfall has made it necessary for Nigeria to seek for external sources of assistance. Hence, the need to explore for offshore financing options to meet some of these obligations.

For instance, it is on record that Nigeria needs about US$30bn to address its infrastructure deficit and other social programs this year alone. The Nigerian government is already discussing with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) and also, is approaching Euro Bond as alternative offshore sources for financing the 2016 budget deficit. Efforts in this direction have started yielding some positive results. For example, AfDB has offered $1bn as budget support loan and $1bn is expected to come from Euro Bond sales. These amounts are far too short from the US$15bn needed by the Finance ministry to bridge the 2016 budget deficit alone. Thus, the NDB can also play a vital role in providing Nigeria with the needed offshore funds to close its budget deficit at very highly liberal terms and at a concessionary rate.

Finally, Nigeria has bilateral financial intermediation and foreign direct investment (FDI) arrangements with almost all the five member states of BRICS. For instance, presently, it is on record that the Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Dr. Ibe Kachukwu is negotiating for a US$15bn upfront petroleum purchase deal with India. China is providing several billion dollars in sole financing and co-financing a number of infrastructure projects in Nigeria. The Brazilians are injecting a lot of investments in a number of upstream oil and gas projects in Nigeria and the Russians are equally not left behind as they are involved in investment in the Nigerian gas sector etc. Furthermore, South Africa has substantial investment in the Nigerian telecoms sector; with the giant South African Mobile Telecommunications Network (MTN) playing a dominant role in the Nigerian telecom industry.

In conclusion therefore, one expects that Nigeria will leverage upon the Goa Declaration using its bilateral relations with all the BRICS member states in order to substantially benefit directly and indirectly from it even as a non-member nation. However, this can only be achieved with a proactive foreign policy; which the current administration is working towards putting in place at the moment.