Tony Blair Wins Again

Tony Blair Wins Again

Dr. Wunmi Akintide

On the advice of the British Prime Minister, His Royal Majesty, Queen Elizabeth !! has dissolved the Parliament and fixed the next general election for the 5th of May, less than a month from today.

Tony Blair the young and charismatic Prime Minister still has close to one year to complete his term. But like most of his predecessors have always done, he is not waiting till the end of his term to give the British voters another chance to reevaluate his performance, and to decide whether or not to rehire him. That is the beauty of Democracy where the unwritten rules of it have been perfected and fully observed and implemented with decorum and honesty.

Why the rush to dissolve Parliament? Good question. Tony Blair himself has publicly admitted that his decision to rush to War in Iraq along with the United States may have eroded public confidence in his Government and personal popularity. he needed a reaffirmation as to whether or not the British voters still want his Labor Party to continue in Government, or be pushed to the opposition. He has been in Government for eight years out of the ten he was constitutionally elected to serve in two consecutive general elections. In some so-called democratic states in third world countries, Prime Ministers or Heads of Governments like Tony would have devised some formula or create some crisis or stalemate to prolong their tenure by 12 or 15 years or find some ways to keep their job for ever.

The Nigerian President has now publicly admitted he is being pressured by a cross section of Nigerians to stay put beyond 2007. Here was a President who in 1979 had voluntarily handed over to a civilian Government in strict adherence to the time table his predecessor, Murtala Mohammed had crafted, before his painful assassination in 1976. It is the same President who is now flying a kite to prolong his leadership of the Nation, even though he has already gone down in history as the longest serving Head of State, and yet most of the nation's problems like Instability based on ethnic rivalry, Corruption, Nepotism, Poverty, Diseases Starvation and Economic stagnation that he inherited on coming to office in 1979 have either multiplied or gotten so much worse, from all we can see, every where you look.

The President had handed over to the civilians in 1979 because he instinctively knew that his doing so, would, for ever, earn him the admiration and respect of the international community which would, enhance his chances of becoming the first pure Black Secretary-general of the United Nations at some point in his life time. We now know the President has a pathological love for power regardless of what he may say to the contrary. How did I know that? Because I served for some two years in New York, as a local staff of the Nigerian Permanent Mission to the UN under the late Joseph Garba as ambassador. I knew how hard Obasanjo had pushed for that job before Butros Butros Ghali of Egypt was selected, and how hard he, Obasanjo had pushed to replace Butros Ghali after he ( Ghali) was forced to resign due to circumstances beyond his control. If the then Nigerian Military Government under Ibrahim Babangida had, in good faith, supported his candidature, with all the powerful leverage Nigeria had, at the time, there is no way Obasanjo could have lost to Kofi Annan. You can quote me on that. I am sure Obasanjo himself and IBB knew that to be a fact. The subsequent decision of IBB to spearhead, champion and bankroll Obasanjo's return to power from prison, in 1999, was in large part to make up for the bad blood arising from IBB's failure to fully rally round Obasanjo's bid for the Secretary-general's job. which in Obasanjo's calculus, at the time, was as good as becoming the Pope or the President of the World.

Why is this point relevant in talking about Tony Blair in this article? It is relevant because Tony Blair is not calling for a general election before his time is up, because he wants to replace the Queen or because he wants to become President of the European Union or Secretary of the UN or even the Pope, he is doing so, out of respect for the right of the British voters to periodically evaluate their leaders, and to decide whether or not to keep them in office. The scenario is even more apposite and relevant in places like Britain, India and the State of Israel where a Prime Minister and his Party can be thrown out of office by narrowly losing a vote of confidence on the floor of the Parliament.Tony Blair did not have to lose a vote of confidence before going back to the voters for another mandate. Let me now go back to the crux of my punditry that come the 5th of May, Tony Blair is not just going to win by a narrow margin, he and his party are going to win with a decent margin of victory. Here is why.

Tony Blair will win again because, like a wise River, Tony has never forgotten his source of power which is the British electorates as articulated above. That is point number one, but there are more powerful reasons.

The performance and universal adulation of the late Pope John Paul 11 has demonstrated to the whole world the efficacy and universal appeal of strong leadership qualities, and why it is so important to educated and informed electorates like those we have in most civilized countries like Britain where election rigging is the exception and not the rule like ours. To be admired and appreciated as a good and strong leader does not mean you have got to be right all the time, and in everything you do. You only need to be right most of the times and on very strategic problems. But above all, you must have strong convictions, and be able to articulate those convictions with clarity and chutzpah in much the same way like the last Pope and the young Prime Minister have done.

You have got to show your followers and the world you are more than equal to the job by the type of confidence you radiate even at the peak of a crisis. I see some striking similarities in the character and attributes of the last Pope and Tony Blair. After his victory at the Conclave in 1978, Pope John Paul 11 had just passed through the so-called Hall of Tears and Sorrow to be introduced, for the first time, to the waiting and anxious crowd at St Peter's Square in the Vatican . In spite of the heavy toga of responsibilities he had just assumed, his very first word to the congregation is "Be strong, be not afraid" followed with a disarming smile that can melt a stone. He had carried all that positive message and confidence in all his holy pilgrimage to all corners of the Earth. He has shown same confidence when the last word he had uttered before his death is "Amen" . That statement tells me the Holy Father must have been praying all the time as he was dying, and he was confident, in faith, that all would be well with him and the Church he was leaving behind.

Tony Blair, on the other hand, as leader of opposition, and later as one of the youngest British Prime Ministers has radiated much the same confidence at every twist and turn of his political career.It is a special joy to watch him speak in Parliament and more so at the Prime Minister' Question time in the House of Commons and at News conferences with the media around the world . Tony Blair is an amazingly eloquent, knowledgeable and intelligent man. I was once privileged to watch him address his Party's Convention at Liverpool during a vacation trip to Britain, before the last general election which his Party had won by a landslide. He was very persuasive and convincing as Party leader, and can hold his own any where in the world. The voters in Britain are not going to forget him in a hurry. Whatever his political transgressions may have been, there is no question that he is a good and successful Prime Minister and one of the best European leaders of this era.

The Conservative Party or the Liberal Democrats in Britain would probably make some inroad into his margin of victory in a few places across the country. There is no way they are going to be able to gather enough momentum to push him aside in the coming election. Their greatest weapon against him could have been his role in supporting the United States and Bush in their unpopular War against Iraq. But that has to be seen as a non starter with the voters, because some of their members too were equally as guilty as the majority in the Labor Party who had taken the same position. There is no way Bush could have succeeded in Iraq to the extent he had done, if Tony Blair has refused to back him. Tiny but diplomatic and resilient Britain led by Tony Blair had been able to make a more credible case on the Iraq War than President Bush was ever capable of making. The British voters or majority of them have to always remember the United States as a traditional ally of Britain. When the push comes to shove, what do they really expect Britain to do. They would remember the support of America for Britain as making the difference in the British War with Argentina over the Falkland Islands while Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister.

I see Tony Blair as the live wire and the brain box of the Coalition's effort in the Middle East and the Palestinian/Israeli Conflict, and so would the majority of voters in Britain. I am aware of the fact that Winston Churchill lost a crucial election following his great success at the Second World War and that Tony Blair could conceivably lose the next election because of the Iraqi War. I just don't believe the two situations are the same. Tony Blair has made his mark as Prime Minister and he therefore deserves to win one more time. I recall his role in the Northern Ireland Peace Effort where he had worked hand -in-hand with Bill Clinton and George Mitchell and the Irish Prime Minister to move the Peace Process forward.

The few commentators who have dared to call Tony Blair the lap dog of George Bush for always supporting America, simply did not know what they are talking about.He disagreed with the calls by a few influential Americans to have Kofi Annan resign his job over the Oil for Food Scandal, and it was his position that carried the day. Calling him the lap dog of any American President is a total misrepresentation of Tony Blair. Mr. Blair like John Paul the Second is his own man. He knows his goal and how to get there. He has proved himself a great world leader and a supremely confident leader at home who would be Prime Minister for as long as he wishes because the voters know his worth.

I cannot end this article without commenting on his Government role in shaping the future of the British Monarchy as we speak. The Monarchy was in deep trouble in Britain following the sudden death of Princess Diana. Tony Blair's Government has succeeded in managing the crisis in a way that has brought a peaceful reconciliation between the Monarchy and her people. He also deserves some kudos in the way and manner he has worked with the Monarchy to lessen the tension and ill feeling that would have arisen with the decision of Prince Charles and the future King to finally marry Camilla Parker-Bowles, her friend and confidant of more than thirty years. I guess you have to say the same thing of the uncanny ability of his Government to manage the security of Britain in a way to avoid or preempt the 9/11 type of tragedy from occurring in Britain, despite the fact that he had actively participated in prosecuting the War in Iraq, and despite the huge influx of Muslims and Jews into Britain. He is a great Prime Minister by any stretch of the imagination and he is a sure candidate for the Prime Ministers' Hall of Fame in much the same way like great Prime Ministers before him like Winston Churchill, Harold Wilson, and Margaret Thatcher to mention a few. I bet he would win again and win big on May the 5th. Mark my words.

I rest my case.

Dr. Wunmi Akintide