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Between OBJ, IBB, Atiku and 2007 By J.E. Iyobhebhe
We are all watching with interest the unfolding drama at the NPRC. With talk of different factions, mystery version of a new constitution, six year single term presidency, etc.
We must all remember that the NPRC is not the product of the NA. It is the brainchild of Mr President after the call for a SNC became too much to bear. So therefore if the convener and the paymaster of the Conference has an idea as to how the new constitution should look I don’t think it is necessarily a bad thing for delegates to be given copies and their views and opinions sought. I don’t think those circulating the document are saying here is the Constitution. They are saying this is our idea, what do you think. I don’t think there is any thing wrong with that.
The political reality of the situation is that after all is said and done, OBJ’s views cannot be completely ignored. After all, he is Mr President. The Conference is a Presidential initiative. Once all the debates and resolutions are over and done with, the NPRC must submit its final report to its convener, OBJ. It will be just a Report after all. There is no legal or constitutional obligation on OBJ to accept any or all of its findings and proposals. OBJ will determine in line with his own visions for Nigeria which bits to accept and which bits to set aside. Which bits to lay before the NA for deliberation or the people in a referendum. How and when this is done is again up to Mr President. The elements of timing and surprise are in his favour. The point I am making is that after all the politiking and manoeuvrings Mr President has all the cards at the end of the day.
The PDM people at the conference will obviously try to push for the banning of all ex military leaders and no change to the status quo. They would also like any proposed change to be retrospective. I don’t think they will have enough punch to push through these clauses. Besides, I don’t think it would work to their leader’s advantage if they are perceived to be pursuing an agenda different from that of the Govt in which their man is No.2. It will not enhance their man’s chances for 2007 and beyond in the eyes of his distracters within the Presidency and OBJ’s inner circle. Besides OBJ has the trump card.
The IBB boys will obviously fight any attempt to ban all ex military rulers from contesting in 2007. They will also battle hard any adverse recommendations from the Oputa Report and attempt to answer uncomfortable questions on Dele Giwa, June 12th, Gulf War Oil windfall as best they can. I don’t think we will be banning all ex leaders in the new order. Even if the Conference proposes it, I don’t think OBJ will accept it. In this regard OBJ and IBB will have a common cause to pursue at the Conference.
I don’t know IBB that well apart from the little I have read about him and his tenure as Maximum Ruler and Dictator of Nigeria between 1985-1993. From the little I can gather I hear he is a very amiable and charming man. I hear he can even charm his enemies into loving him. He is reputed to be generous and savvy. He knows his strengths and weaknesses. He knows when not to fight a losing battle and when the game is up. He knows when to step in and when to step aside. He has a very strong sense of self- preservation and survival. I don’t think his boys can have the upper hand at the Conference but may be able to protect their master’s reputation and keep hope alive. I don’t think IBB will be banned and I don’t think he should be- for reasons I have previously stated in my last article.
I believe he is doing the right thing by continuing to support OBJ and his fight against corruption in public life. I believe he is a smart guy. I think he has some very strong attributes but I think its a tactical error coming out so openly and asking to be crowned President in 2007. I think his advisers have made a mistake by pushing him to declare his hand. The dust of the political undercurrent has not settled yet for him to show his hand so soon. I could be wrong. What if at the end of the day the PDP turns round and say they want to field OBJ again to complete his work. Will he continue in his campaign for Aso-Rock in 2007? Will he stand against the President in the political battle of his life? How many true political foot soldiers has he got within the PDP and the Country? How many ‘political divisions’ does he command? Will he go into political battle against his superior officer? Can he take on the machine with OBJ as Commanding Officer?
From the little I gather about him, he does not fight losing battles. After all the sycophants and hangers on have done their work and it becomes clear to the Infantry General that 2007 may not be, for whatever reason, the man will withdraw rather than face a humiliating defeat at the primaries. Decamping or forming new political alliances to take on the PDP would be difficult. He may try to get his friends in the ANPP to give him the ticket over Buhari. He has a few options but no real solution to the problem.
The aura and myth of IBB is based on his survival Sixth Sense and his excellent reading of the political pulse of Nigeria over the last 4 decades. The man helped to overthrow a democratically elected Government in 1983 and installed Buhari. He kicked out Buhari at a time when he knew Buhari was weak and vulnerable and installed himself maximum ruler. He played his game with style over a period of eight years until the game was up. Until his political and military constituency got tired of his games. The man stepped aside when the knives were out for him and knew he had no more room to manoeuvre. The man refused to step into the race in 2003 when he knew, no matter what, OBJ and his men were going to prevail. The man has lived comfortably and peacefully in his hill top mansion in Minna since stepping aside. He has never really upset any ruler after him so much so that they want to jail or disgrace him. Not Abacha, not his cousin Abdusalam, not really OBJ. He is a smart guy.
It is my view that if it becomes clear to him (sooner or later) that the Presidency he left behind in 1993 cannot be reclaimed in the new democratic order he will retire from public life rather than allow the IBB myth and magic to be broken. If this is the case he will realign his forces with the winning group and call it a day. He will always play at the political centre and avoid aligning himself with the fringe and marginal players in Nigerian politics. On the other hand, his sycophants and advisers may tell him to take on OBJ’s men and that he will defeat them. Well, well, well.
What about the leader of the PDM? If at the end of the day the conference recommends a fix 6 or 7 year presidency and it does not ban OBJ or IBB or any past civilian or military ruler and it is approved by the NA and the PDP machine say they want to field OBJ again, will he rebel and finally come out to challenge his master for the heart and soul of the PDP? How strong is the PDM machine? Can the PDM take on OBJs men in a war of attrition? Where are PDM people in the structures of the PDP and Government now? Are they organised and strong enough to take on OBJ's men? Can they prevail when the chips are down?
From what I gather, the current political power play may work out in his favour in the long term. You see, if the PDP and the Nigerian people want OBJ to continue and make it constitutionally and legally possible for him to do so, it may be in the best interest of the PDM to toe the line. If the thinking is that OBJ is only needed to complete his work ( as I have always argued) , it therefore follows that if the job is completed by 2009 or 2010 there will be no need for him to carry on once the mission is accomplished. OBJ may resign half way through his tenure and whoever is VP will automatically succeed to the Presidency. In this scenario if Atiku is still VP he will succeed OBJ for the remainder of the new tenure and then by 2013 or 2014 stand for a full term in his own right. This way he will get to rule Nigeria longer in his own right as Numero Uno than if he got the ticket in 2007 under the present constitution. This way he becomes the longest serving politician in the corridors of power in Nigerian history. They say the vulture is a patient bird.
If this is how it is going to be, it may well be that those promoting this game plan are actually fighting for the Turaki and not against him. They could be protecting his long-term interest. You see, your enemies are not always who they seem. They could be afraid that if left in the field alone with IBB in 2007 he may not be able to withstand the charm of the Maradona.
Leaving the PDP to fight for the Presidency in 2007 is a no brainer. Openly fighting OBJ’s men at the primaries for the ticket if the machine wants OBJ to have it would also be suicidal.
If you were in his shoes what will you do? Interesting times ahead for the main political players.
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