Before Writing Off The Us Intelligence Report By Madaki O. Ameh
Since the news broke a few days ago, there has been understandable umbrage about the contents of the US National Intelligence Council report titled “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future”. The report attempts to look into the future of sub-Saharan Africa for the next 15 years, and in a crystal ball like manner, predict what the trends are, and what may happen in the region within the period of their projection.
Like all things Western in nature, the report appears to paint a gloomy picture of the situation in sub-Saharan Africa, and mentions specific countries like Nigeria, South Africa, and others a number of times. It has also been widely reported in the press that the report stated that Nigeria would become a failed State in 15 years. Such comments, if true should elicit feelings of anger and an outpouring of patriotism from Nigerians and indeed other well meaning Africans, both at home and in the diaspora. The President has understandably responded to the report in his letter to the Senate, where he reportedly condemned the report as a doomsday prophecy from those who do not wish Nigeria and the African continent well, in spite of all the efforts being made on all fronts to put things right, concluding that they must be living in the past.
Coming from a Western country like the US, with their penchant for putting the African continent down whenever they have the opportunity, such umbrage may not be altogether unjustified. However, before an outright condemnation of the report, it is important to read it carefully, and come to an informed conclusion on whether or not, it is as damning as being widely reported.
Before making any comment on the issue, I took time to read
every line of the said report, and my honest conclusion is that it is a
balanced report. This may appear difficult to agree with, given the
sense of hurt national pride and the possibility of misinterpreting the
report as a doomsday prediction for Nigeria and other African countries,
but the truth is that, nowhere in the report was there any false
assumption on the prevailing situation in Nigeria and other countries in
Africa. If at all, the writers of the report have demonstrated a much
more in-depth knowledge and ability at analysing African affairs than most
of our self acclaimed messiahs in Africa will like to admit.
To start with, nowhere in the report was it stated that
that Nigeria is a failed State, or would fail in 15 years as gleefully
reported in the press. The relevant section of the report reads as
follows:
No matter the extent of President Obasanjo’s lofty 'dreams' for Nigeria, which I believe we all share in, there is a time to wake up from slumber and really carry out a realistic assessment to determine whether you are headed in the direction of your dreams or not. Not to do so is to continue to wallow in self deceit.
For the avoidance of doubt, I have set out below, verbatim reproductions from relevant sections of the report, which I consider to be factual statements and conclusions, which in no way warrants an angry reaction of the sort we have seen in the last couple of days, with appropriate comments where necessary.
QUOTES FROM THE US INTELLIGENCE REPORT
The above is a factual comment, which buttresses the fact that good governance and international investment go hand in hand.
No one can realistically controvert the fact that Nigeria suffers from the ‘Resource Curse’ syndrome, as we have had little or nothing to show as a country for the several years of oil and gas production and revenues, most of which has ended in private overseas bank accounts, and still supports their grandiose lifestyles. Even with the few recent efforts at entrenching accountability and curbing corruption, the overwhelming consensus is that the efforts are selective and don’t go deep enough, as no one has, to date, been convicted of corruption. In spite of the brilliant and bold efforts by the EFCC in recent times, such efforts lack the institutional structures and support required to sustain them in the long run, leading many to believe that the results seen so far has been due to the fearless disposition of the Chairman of the Commission, who can be dropped at any time. The fact that most basic amenities required to sustain life in a civilised manner are lacking in Nigeria cannot be denied by any serious minded person, except the traditional government apologists.
This again is a factual comment, which needs no further elaboration.
Again, another factual comment. If oil and gas revenues have not salvaged or lives in the last 40 years, it is unlikely that there will be a dramatic turn around in 15 years, without concrete actions on ground which we cannot see, unless with binoculars provided by the government.
This is a fair comment, and accurately reflects our penchant for burying the hatchet, even when there has been mindless mayhem over flimsy conflicts, many of which are reactions to events that happen in places far away. The incidents in Kano, Kaduna, parts of Plateau, Odi, Zaki-Biam, and many others, where thousands of innocent Nigerians were mowed down in cold blood, without any efforts by government to bring the culprits to book, cannot be denied. Also undeniable is the death of uncountable Nigerians in the Ikeja Cantonment disaster, and because Nigeria has no accurate data on its citizens living and dead, casualties from such disasters and many more are only estimated, with government officials stating on a number of occasions that contrary to press reports, ‘only 200 people’ died, as if the death of one Nigerian in questionable situations is not regrettable enough!
Our experience with democracy in Nigeria so far clearly vindicates this position, as undue efforts have been channelled towards preserving our so called ‘nascent’ democracy, even if that means keeping quiet in the face of fraudulent elections, misrule, high handedness and outright arrogance on the part of people in government positions. Many people who were cheated out of the last elections in 2003 are still licking their wounds and maintaining actions in Election Tribunals, and it is obvious that some of those cases may still be pending when the tenure of this administration runs out in 2007. This does not happen in any part of the civilised world, and as long as we continue in our practice of primitive democracy, the international community cannot have anything other than contempt for our so-called democratic structures.
This analysis can also not be assailed in a reasonable manner, with facts on ground. Unless something is done urgently about our fraudulent electoral systems and the intolerant nature of our politicians, Nigeria will clearly still be in the category of democratic aspirers in 15 years time. The shameful manner in which Brigadier Gen. Buba Marwa was prevented from declaring his membership for the ruling PDP, even in his own State, which is controlled by the PDP recently, speaks volumes of the kind of democracy we are practicing in Nigeria. One would have thought that declaration of support and membership of a party by such a prominent citizen would have been a thing of joy for the ruling party, but not in Nigeria, as the party apparently already has more than enough members!
Also, the continued refusal of President Obasanjo to release Local Council funds to Lagos State, apparently to further his arms wrestling contest with the Lagos State Governor, in spite of a clear and unequivocal judgment of the Supreme Court to that effect directly challenges the institution of the judiciary and renders it completely impotent to play its constitutional roles. Considering that the Supreme Court is the last court in Nigeria, maybe President Obasanjo is waiting for the result of an appeal to God before agreeing to release the funds and save the families of the hapless workers in the Local Governments from starvation, due to non payment of their legitimate salaries.
The above analysis shows a glimmer of hope, and what needs to be done to address the pitiable state of things on the African continent. The key question President Obasanjo and his other colleagues in Angola and Sudan should be asking themselves is what they will do to ensure better management of oil resources in their countries, to enable the positive prediction of their becoming stronger, tens of millions of Africans benefiting from reduced poverty, and a significant impact on the region, to come to pass, rather than condemning the report.
Again, another good advice on the need to position Agriculture and ensure that it achieves its full potentials. African leaders keep paying lip service to promoting agriculture, but painfully, the efforts are not sustainable and not deep enough to make any difference. It is shameful that with such abundant blessings in terms of weather, most African countries, including Nigeria, cannot feed themselves, and have to rely on food imports, whereas countries in Europe, Asia and America where you would think there are no farmers, actually produce so much food that no one bothers to think seriously about the cost of food in these areas.
The above comment is responsible for all the bad press about the intelligence report, but it can be seen clearly that it is a fair comment. It is true that the marriage of Nigerian politicians is one of convenience, and the ties are actually fragile, given our penchant for degenerating into sudden feats of violence for no justifiable reason, with government watching helplessly until the warring parties choose to stop. As mentioned earlier, this is just a scenario setting, which has no bearing with reality. Much as we all agree that military interventions are despicable and must never happen again in Nigeria, the recent incident of ‘security breach’ for which Major Al-Mustapha and a few others are being tried at the Federal High Court in Lagos shows that, undesirable as it is, such incidents cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in the face of blatant misrule and ever increasing despair among the populace with the never arriving ‘dividends of democracy’.
This is also a factual comment that cannot be assailed by any serious minded person. It provides suggestions of areas which need urgent attention to ensure that Nigeria and other African countries pull out of their desperate situation.
CONCLUSION
As the Nigerian Senate commences debates on the US intelligence report, one can only hope that their enlarged and informed membership will read in between the lines, and ensure that the report is turned to a window of opportunity for Nigeria and the rest of Africa. They should avoid the temptation of joining the band wagon of criticism, which appears to have been so ably commenced by the President in his letter, but rather play their roles as legislators, and see the intelligence report for what it is, a projection of different scenarios. They should then galvanise efforts into ensuring that the upside scenarios come to pass and the downsides do not happen. After all, 15 years is just around the corner, and before you know it, all the indignation and outrage that has followed this report may turn out to be misplaced aggression, if nothing is done now to correct the structural imbalances prevalent in our country and the rest of Africa.
________________________________________________________________ Madaki O. Ameh, a Lawyer, is currently a Chevening Scholar at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland, U.K.
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