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The Balkanisation of Nigeria By J.E. Iyobhebhe
US Sub Saharan Intelligence Analysts and Futurologists have predicted the possibility of the collapse of the Nigerian state within 15 years time and gave scenarios that could lead to the collapse of Nigeria, as we know it. One of these included a Junior Officers Coup leading to the outbreak of a protracted Civil War or Yugoslav style Balkanisation War, with no guarantee of reunification of the Country as in 1970.
Do the Americans have any right to predict that Nigeria may collapse in 15 years time? Well, they are entitled to conduct research on sub Saharan Africa, predict likely scenarios and outcomes and prepare effective US response to safeguard US interests. Yes, they are entitled to predict the future of Nigeria in the same way that US futurologist are looking at the global consequences of an emerging Chinese Century, How to Engage and Contain China, the Future of Saudi Arabia, the likely scenarios in the Middle East, Nuclear Bomb in the hands of India and Pakistan, Impact of HIV/ Aids, Future Energy Patterns and its Effect on US Economic and Strategic interests and a host of other topics. Of course they are entitled to study and conduct research on us and draw their own conclusions; but that is not to say that we have to agree with their research methodology, their reasoning processes, their drivers or their conclusions, not at all. I just wish that we are planning and researching our future with as much interest as our foreign observers instead of bickering about all the nonsense we bicker about as a people.
There are serious issues facing the Nigerian federation, of that there is no doubt. We have big issues with Ethnic, Religious and Regional Rivalries, Lack of Patriotism and a strong sense of Nigerian Identity, Lack of Commitment to the Cause of Nigeria, an Unstable Political Culture, the problems of Poverty and Corruption in Public Life, the Failure of the Nigerian State to look after 90% of its population since independence, the over Dependency on Crude Oil, the inability to develop and sustain alternative sources of Foreign Exchange, the impact of HIV/Aids on the productive population, etc, etc. We all know the problems but I don’t think these issues are peculiar to Nigeria. Other nations face the same but it is how we handle them that will determine whether we end up a Failed State as predicted by the Futurologists in DC or a Success Story as predicted by Mr President and eternal optimists like myself.
After all is said and done, the economic condition of the average Nigerian in 15 years time will very much determine how he feels about the Nigerian state and whether it is a country he wants to belong to- it is an economic question in my view. Sooner or later oil will run out, what then do we do? Just imagine Nigeria today without Oil Revenues and imagine the problems. To be honest this is the main challenge for Nigeria in my view. To avoid the scenario painted by US analysts, we need to have an economy in 15 years time that we can call a Middle Income Developing Economy; we need to have moved from $300 per head to something in the region of $10,000- $15,000 per head; we need to have in place a fair and just political structure in Nigeria; we need in 15 years time to have had uninterrupted democratic governments; we need to have in place by then systems for the protection of freedoms, liberties and human rights. These are the challenges facing present and future generations.
I, for one, believe that to balkanise or encourage the balkanisation of Nigeria will be a tragedy for Africa and the Sub Region. The US and the world need a strong and viable Nigerian State as a stabilising force in West and Central Africa. If we balkanise as predicted by the US, how is it going to work? Is it going the to be the Czech option or is it going to be the Yugoslav Option? Who goes where and how? Will it be Oduduwa Republic, Republic of Biafra, Republic of the Niger Delta, Republic of the Middle Belt and the Islamic Republic of Northern Nigeria? The alternative to a United Nigeria is just too horrendous to contemplate. It is just not worth thinking about. We all have to ensure that this prediction never comes to pass, even if that is what the Strategists and Analysts in DC may foresee for Nigeria.
We were told the likely outcome for Nigeria in 15 years time but what would be interesting to know is what the US is planning to do if all hell breaks loose in Nigeria in 15 years time as they predict. Will they support the successful reunification of the Nigerian State or will they encourage our balkanisation? What do you think? As they are keen to let us know our predicted end, they should also be kind enough to let us know what they intend to do if their Futurologists are correct. No doubt this US prediction will give encouragement to those in the Unhappy Marriage who have always said in public and private that the only way to happiness and prosperity is to end the Unhappy Marriage and Balkanise the Country. What would be helpful now is a statement from the US State Department that the US will never accept or deal with any future military government in Nigeria (no matter the excuse or corruption or usual reasons given for military usurpation of power) and that the only viable future for Nigeria is a United, Secular, Indivisible, Democratic Nigeria under the Rule of Law.
I just hope that we are not witnessing a change in US policy towards Nigeria. First, they advised their citizens and business people not to step anywhere near Nigeria; secondly, they say No Charles Taylor, No Debt Relief and No UNSC Seat; and now, we will balkanise within 15 years. What message are they sending, directly or indirectly, to Long Term Strategic Foreign Investors in Nigeria? What next for Nigeria, Uncle Sam?
Personally, I don’t think we will balkanise in 15 years time. I just think there are to many ifs and buts and I don’t think there will be another civil war within 15 years. We will have issues and challenges but we will have to manage and contain them in a constructive and intelligent way. If Oil runs out in 30 years time and we are not able to put in place by then alternative sources of sustenance for Nigeria then we may be in big trouble. This is a more likely threat than religious, tribal and regional rivalries. The worse case scenario is if Oil runs out and we have no alternative revenue source in place and all hell breaks loose, slaughter all round and the Far North, the East, the West and Niger Delta all decide at the same time to balkanise the Country. Well, the likelihood of all these factors coming together at the same time is remote in my view. Besides, I don’t think after our last experience of Civil War that many Nigerians will be keen to take up arms against follow brothers. We all know now that all wars are pointless at the end of the day because after all the slaughter, blood sacrifice, heroism and deaths we still end up at the negotiating table, this time to accept the verdict of the Victorious.
Sentiments and emotions apart, I don’t think the military will return for a number of practical reasons. First the political situation in the country is very different from that which pertained in the 70’s, mid 80’s and during the 90’s. Nigerians are very aware of the fact that the military have set us back, politically and economically, 40 years. Second, OBJ has put together one of the best security and intelligence machines in Africa since he returned to power- a machine that will be available to an elected successor, even if a true civvy. Third, the tribal and regional sentiments that encouraged coups and the passing of the baton from one military ruler to another have been severely weakened since 1999. Fourthly, the current leadership corps of the armed forces is of a different breed and they understand and accept their duty under the constitution. Fifthly, the Nigerian people will not accept any usurpation of an elected government, no matter the corruption or justification. Finally, the international community will not recognise or deal with such a government, of that I am sure or should I say I hope they won’t. Finally, I think we are currently putting in place effective civil, constitutional, political, security and intelligence measures that will ensure the sustenance of democracy
I don’t think we will have military intervention within the next 15 years for I believe democracy is here to stay and only Democracy, Freedom and a Market Economy can guarantee the economic success and development that will sustain Nigeria as a viable state. I hope we never have the Military back ever because it would be tragic for Nigeria. I think what the US Futurologists are saying is that a Military Coup will have serious consequences for the Nigerian state and I think we know this already. But futurology is not an exact science so let us not worry too much. As the President said in reply to the prediction, only the Great Architect of the Universe knows our future-the future of Nigeria and the whole world, including the US, is in his hands.
My challenge to Nigerian academics and futurologists is a very simple one: the Americans have predicted our future; it is now time to predict theirs. Any takers?
Good Luck.
J.E. Iyobhebhe
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