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Nigeria Beyond Tomorrow By Anthony A . Akinola
The reason why Nigeria is one nation today was not because of the might of Federal forces during the 1967-70 civil war. Of course God’s will prevails in everything, but one informed reason is because none of the then super-powers America and the Soviet-Union, saw the need to break up the federation. If one of them had shown active interest in the collapse of the Nigerian state, the scale and outcome of the conflict might have been different. In fact, in the 1960’s America saw Nigeria as the problem of Britain and could not be too bothered.
The potentials for disintegration of the Nigerian state, based on ethnological realities and historical antecedents, are there for all to see, hence the prediction in America’s intelligence report could have been gambled by any intelligent observer. Ethnic or religious disagreements could trigger and flare up to unmanageable proportions. In fact, mass anger over unemployment and growing poverty could be exploited to achieve an intended result. The availability of a small minority with secessionist ambitions is a factor. That, indeed, is the sour truth. Rather than visit the report with angry outburst, an intelligent government will study the grounds upon which the author(s) arrived at their conclusions. Honest issues highlighted could then be addressed in the most realistic fashion. Coming at a time when a national conference is taking place, the opportunity for informed discussions would not be missed.
Lessons can be learned from the experiences of others. Maybe the former Soviet Union would have survived as a nation if it had been a democratic, federal union whose peoples, ab mitio, co-existed on agreed terms, rather than by the force of Leninist-Stalinisr ideology. Nigeria's diversity, if property channeled, should be the source of her strength.
The America nation itself had transformed from an unstable confederation of 13 independent colonies into the federal colossus that it is today. The Americans did fight a civil war in the 19th century, as we did in Nigeria a century later. However, America’s founding fathers did put a constitution in place, which has proved capable of withstanding the heaviest political storms. The political institutions that emerged from the Connecticut Convention of 1787, federalism and the bicamera legislature in particular, were compromises and resolutions to issues that were once bitterly contested. That is what we should do for Nigeria – a constitution that addresses the political realities of the Nigerian nation. Let ours be a nation that does not fear to thread on a new ground, and let our patriotism be that of a people determined to shame even the minutest of pessimistic predictions. But our system must be just and fair for that to happen.
The road to the future is about the present generation of Nigerians making personal or group sacrifices in the interest of our collective existence. Federalism is a political idea that derives its energy from the principle of give and take! The danger signal beckons where and when that principle cannot be respected.
The American observer is no fool. There is a constitution conference going on in Nigeria, and one of the issues in discussion has to do with term of office for president. What note do you expect an observer to make when the main ground upon which a key political leader objects to a single term presidency is because a southerner is serving a second term in office, and a northerner should not be prevented from doing same? “These people are not serious” would be the conclusion of a sceptical observer but our Nigerian House will not fall.
Anthony A. Akinola
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