Intro Derivation and resource control has always been an emotional and vexed political issue in Nigeria since independence. In today’s terms the debate centres on how the Multi Billion Dollars Oil Revenue should be apportioned between the Oil Producing States and the Federation Government in Abuja? Add to this debate ethnicity, religion, perceived notions of marginalization, lack of alternative sources of hard currency, regionalism and you see what a controversial issue this is.

New Industry in Nigeria The argument and competition for control of oil resources has given birth to a new industry in Nigeria called the ‘Resource Control Industry’ otherwise known as ‘resource control movement’. This debate and argument has created tension and friction between those who feel they are being short changed by the Nigerian Federation (mainly the states, tribes and peoples of the Niger Delta region), the Non- Oil Producing States and the Federation Government in Abuja.

Current Position Without being too legalistic, the current arrangement is that all oil discovered on and off shore belongs to the Nigerian State. All receipts are due to the Federal Government and the FG has a constitutional duty to remit 13% of revenues back to the source of its derivation in the Niger Delta. In the past, before Oil became the main source of national sustenance, the Nigerian arrangement was based on a 50-50 derivation between the Regions and the Centre.

Niger Delta Position The arguments are old and well rehearsed by all sides in the debate. The Niger Delta people feel that because the oil from which Nigeria gets 95% of her foreign exchange is located on their land that they should have a greater share from the proceeds of Oil Sales for the development of the Niger Delta. That the area has had no tangible benefit from their God given wealth and that in actual fact the pollution and environmental degradation has completely destroyed their traditional way of living-fishing and farming. There are also issues with the political/power status of the bread- basket of the nation vis-à-vis other regions of the country. For example, they argue that they have never been given the opportunity to produce the President or Vice President for Nigeria in a democratic setting- not the same during the Military Era as Admiral Aikhomu was Vice President under IBB for a long time and Admiral Akhigbe was also the No.2 under the Abdulsalam transition regime. Both Naval men are of course from Edo State in the Niger Delta.

They further argue that the Federal Government, the Oil majors and the Nigerian Elite have got rich and fat on the petro-dollars from the Niger Delta whilst the indigenes live in abject poverty; that the Oil revenue has been used by the Nigerian State to develop other parts of the country at the expense of the Niger Delta; that some states in Nigeria are enjoying more than the people of the Niger Delta. They argue that during the First Republic when agriculture was the main source of sustenance for Nigeria, derivation was on a 50-50 basis between the Regions and the Centre. They would like to see the same derivation principle for Oil revenues today. Some call for true federalism or fiscal federalism- meaning each state should control what they produce and remit something back to the centre for the common pot- basically a reverse of the current position. The political class in the Niger Delta argue that if the Nigerian State does not agree to a just and fair settlement for the Niger Delta that the Militants will continue to get stronger and may one day challenge the Sovereignty of the Nigerian State in the Region. They also want to know what proportion of the US$400B derived from Niger Delta Oil in the last 50 years made its way back to the Niger Delta to develop the area.

Position of the Non-Oil Producing States

The non-oil producing states, on the other hand, know that Nigeria is totally dependent on the Niger Delta Oil for survival. All the states in Nigeria survive on the monthly pay cheque or allocation received from the Federation Account at the Centre. Without it all, but one or two, just cannot survive-they cannot pay salaries, they cannot run schools, they cannot build roads, they can’t do nothing- everything will come to a standstill over night. Even with their monthly allocations from the FG most cannot pay regular salaries. Just don’t imagine the situation without the monthly handout from the Federation Account. They know that since the discovery of Black Gold in commercial quantities other traditional forms of sustenance like Agriculture has gradually disappeared as a source of foreign revenue. They know that Nigeria has failed to establish alternative revenue centres (even ‘small Ghana’ is earning vast sums now as the call centre hub for West Africa). The only game in town is collecting your share of the national cake from the centre every month.

Knowing this reality, it is obviously not in the interest of the non-oil producing states to allow more derivation to the Niger Delta because that would invariably reduce their monthly allocation from the general pot. Although most sympathize with the Niger Delta cry of political and economic ‘marginalization’ (the most overused and misused word in the Nigerian political dictionary), they don’t see why their standard of living should be lowered just because of perceived notions of injustice. To the non -oil producing states, the oil belongs not to the Niger Delta alone but to Nigeria; and all Nigerians should benefit from it pretty much on the basis of the Marxian Creed: to each according to his need. It is obviously in the collective interest of the South West, South East, Far North and Middle Belt that the status quo is maintained and that the oil wells continue to produce Nigeria’s daily bread.

Federal Government Stance Sandwiched between the Oil and Non -Oil Producing States is the orphaned Federal Government that no one cares much about other than when it comes to receiving their monthly pay cheque from the Federation Account. As the Chief Guardian and Guarantor of Nigerian Unity and Well Being and as the overall landlord over any oil discovered on or off shore Nigeria, the issues are pretty clear as well. The oil belongs to Nigeria. It is for the benefit of all Nigerians and should be allocated on the basis of fairness, justice and need between the three competing parties. But as overall landlord, bearing in mind its national obligations for defence, foreign affairs, police, civil service, federal highways, health, education, feeding the nation and keeping the Good Ship Nigeria afloat, you cannot expect it to earning less from Oil than the six oil producing states. Besides the FG has an obligation to cater for over 130 million Nigerians not just the people in the oil producing states. There is also the unspoken view from the centre of: What Oil Producing State? They argue that the oil is produced by Shell, Chevron-Texaco and the other big multinationals- not by the locals.

These are all interesting views and, to a larger or lesser extent, valid depending on which side of the fence one is on.

General Commentary There is no doubt that oil discovered on and off shore should be beneficial to the people and states with the greatest territorial proximity to the resource. I think we all accept this basic principle of fairness and justice. The current Nigerian solution broadly accepts this notion and hence it gives 13% derivation from the proceeds of sale to the Oil Producing States, mainly in the Niger Delta region of the country. This is without prejudice to the overriding principle that any oil discovered on and off shore Nigeria belongs to the Nigerian State. This arrangement has meant that the states of the Niger Delta have received billions of dollars over the years from the Federal Government as their share of the proceeds or National Cake, if you like. This has made the Niger Delta states nominally some of the ‘richer’ states in the Federation to the envy of non-oil producing states, so much so that their not so fortunate counterparts call some of the Niger-Delta Governors Oil Sheiks.

The question of what these states have done with the billions of dollars sent their way by the Federal Government is a different question altogether. Some have used it assiduously in an attempt to improve the lives of their citizens in terms of road, hospitals, schools, water and other life enhancing projects. Others have been less than prudent with this money preferring to use it as if Federal Government allocation is the Governors monthly pay cheque for him to use as he pleases (the lines between use of state funds for state and personal purposes blurred, to say the least).

The Evidence/ Factual Observations I must say that, from what I witnessed in my recent travels in the Niger Delta states, apart from Port Harcourt and certain areas of Delta state, there is very little to write home about. Driving to Warri from the Benin end I don’t think you can compare Warri or Delta state to other parts of the world with a similar proximity to black gold. The same can be said of Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River and Edo state. The general poverty and sense of underdevelopment is all too glaring. In fact, these states generally look like other parts of Nigeria- poor roads, poor infrastructure and a general sense of underdevelopment. Generally speaking the evidence is that there is not much difference between the oil producing states and the non- oil producing states. Well, they certainly don’t stand out as the Dallas or Kuwait of Nigeria. The big question is whom do you blame. Do you blame the states or do you blame the federal government for the general underdevelopment in the Niger Delta? The states and resource control warriors say blame the FG. Others say to the Niger Delta people ‘ask your Governors what they have done with the Billions of Dollars received from the FG over the years’. This is a classic case of passing the buck.

The Political/ Economic Consequences of Underdevelopment in the Niger Delta The economic underdevelopment in the Niger Delta region has given birth to political agitators, campaigners, gangsters, protectionism, racketeering, lobbyists and outright stealing of crude oil (a.k.a. oil bunkering)- the last not confined to Niger Deltans alone, I must add. It has also given rise to general disenchantment, resentment and a sense of abandonment and powerless by the locals. The ND people believe that the Multinationals, the FG and a few rich and powerful Nigerians have highjacked their land and Oil to their detriment. I must add that this general level of disenchantment and abandonment is not peculiar to the people of the Niger Delta, it is the general feeling in a Nigeria that simply cannot generate enough wealth to provide the basic necessities of life for its people- food, water, shelter, basic road, education and healthcare. The problem has simply been accentuated by the fact that there is oil on their land. This feeling is based on the old notion of: why should we suffer in the mist of stupendous oil wealth? The view that ‘why should the multinationals, the FG and a handful of privileged Nigerians enjoy the benefit of Petro- Dollars whilst we the people of the ND live in poverty and squalor? This is a very widely held view across the Niger Delta. There is, of course, the issue of pollution and the destruction of the Ecosystem and of traditional farming and fishing in the Niger Delta.

Another observation is the level of youth unemployment in the Oil rich Niger Delta. Apart from a handful of privileged individuals who have jobs with the State or Federal Government or within the Organised Private Sector, including the Oil industry, the level of youth unemployment is very high in the Niger Delta despite the presence of oil. This group of the unemployed and the disenfranchised is the natural recruitment field of the Militants in the Niger Delta who do not have to do much convincing or persuading- they are preaching to the converted usually. These groups are claiming the disenfranchised youths abandoned by the State and FG for themselves. Come to think of it, if you are a youth in the Niger Delta with no job despite your education, unemployed and directionless with no prospect of channelling your youthful energy in a productive way and you see all around you the poverty, sadness, hardship of life and the State or Federal Government or Organised Private Sector cannot offer you a way out and you are promised a role in an Oil bunkering or kidnapping gang that will keep you busy and bring money beyond your wildest dreams- it is not that difficult for the disenfranchised youths to say yes when you add a bit of tribal rhetoric and fighting for the survival or development of our people and a sense of belonging to a Cult or Special Secret Group to the cocktail. There is no doubt that the vast underdevelopment in the area has created an opportunity for militancy and subsequently a major security issue for the Nigeria State.

The Various Resource Control Groups While some of these movements were genuine campaigners for a better life for their people, environment and future, others simply saw it as an opportunity for political relevance over a very sensitive and important national and local issue. A third group of economic opportunists and contractors saw it as their meal ticket out of the poverty of Nigeria or as an opportunity to amass even more wealth than they had already by acting as middle men, contractors, suppliers, facilitators and peace brokers between the FGN, Oil Companies and the militant wing of the movement threatening to hold the Oil companies to ransom and consequently the daily bread of the entire Nigerian nation. Without the regular flow of oil, receipts from the Oil companies will gradually start to dwindle with predictable economic consequences for the entire country. There is a final group of disenfranchised militants determined to get their perceived share by any means necessary. In summary, there are four groupings within the Resource Control Movement: the Environmental/ Ecological Group, the Political/ Establishment Group, the Business/ Economic Group and the Militant /Disenfranchised Group. I must add that there is an element of cross- fertilization between the environmental, business and political establishment group.

Tactics Deployed By the Environmental Group The tactics adopted by the resource control groups varied from group to group and the personality and agenda of its leadership. And this is true today as it was historically. Those genuinely interested in the environmental impact of oil exploration on their land lobbied the FG, oil companies and the international community for a more reasonable and just settlement for their people; urging the multinationals and the FG to provide funds to counter the economic and environmental devastation caused by oil pollution and to provide job opportunities in the oil sector for locals or indigenes. This group maintained at all times a non- violent posture and won the support and sympathy of the some in the FG and the international environmental lobby. This group has good contacts in the international environmental lobby and have achieved some level of success in their campaign. In this category are groups like Environmental Rights Action and Friends of the Earth Nigeria. The late Ken Saro-Wiwa could also be said to belong to the environmental group as well as in the political camp. Their global campaign against Shell in the early nineties created a massive PR problem for the multinational at the time. I better not say anything negative about Shell, as my in-law is the new MD in Nigeria! Political / Establishment Group Tactics The Political wing of this campaign had clear political objectives in mind and understood that the entire issue could not be separated from the vexed question of the nature of the Nigerian state and the division or allocation or perceived hijacking of politico /economic power by a certain group of people in the country to their exclusion. This group made up of local and national political leaders, intellectuals, business, cultural and traditional leaders from the Niger Delta sought to influence the debate on control and allocation of oil resources between the Federation and the Niger Delta states. They sought influence over the appointment of FG ministers with particular reference to who becomes the Oil Minister. They sought influence over appointments into senior positions at the NNPC and other FG controlled companies in the Oil and Gas sector. They lobbied for the appointment of indigenous technical and managerial experts in the private oil sector dominated by the multinationals.

This establishment political group is still the dominant group today in the resource control debate. They are establishment people and have no interest whatsoever in wrecking the Nigerian State as they have been beneficiaries of Nigeria. They are more concerned with notions of political power, fairness, justice and a better deal for the Niger Delta people. If they can control 50% of oil revenues their states and people will be very well off, they say. This group is currently being given voice by some of the governors and senior establishment political leaders from the Niger Delta. They are the representatives of the Niger Delta people at the ongoing National Political Reform Conference in Abuja.

The Effectiveness of the Political/ Establishment Group The political group within the movement has achieved a reasonable level of success for the resource control cause. Their relationship with the FGN has been fruitful to their cause and to them personally. Most of the leading figures have enjoyed FG patronage as Ministers, State Governors, Board Chairmanship or Membership of FG Boards, Ambassadors, Senior Civil Service posts, leadership roles in the educational and health sectors and as Contractors to the FG and its institutions.

Politically they have achieved great success by getting Nigeria to carve out their Oil Producing lands into self- governing regions and states. First out of the old Western Region in the 1st Republic in the form of Mid West region (taking the oil fields of Delta from the Yoruba dominated Western Regional Government) and out of the old Eastern region by Gowon creating more states in 1967 (thereby carving out the oil producing areas in present day Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River and Akwa Ibom out of Igbo political control). They have achieved success also by getting Nigeria to accept the basic notion of benefit by proximity, as far as oil is concerned, based on the current 13% derivation principle and are still pushing for an increase till today. They have achieved the additional success of getting ND indigenes into senior managerial positions in the Oil industry in Nigeria, so much so that at one point more than 50% of senior managers in the NNPC and its subsidiaries were from the ND region. This group has achieved the additional success of pushing, in collaboration with local business interests, for a decent and respectable local content policy from the FGN resulting in the Oil majors having to incorporate local content into their overall operations in Nigeria. The group has been instrumental in getting the Nigerian Government to grant exploration licenses to some Nigerian business interests. These are small fields mainly, but nevertheless a step in the right direction. The effectiveness, technical expertise and ability to deliver from these local licensees in a sector dominated by multinational corporations with billions of dollars to invest is a different question altogether.

The relationship between the political group and the Oil majors is one of mutual respect. They accept the role of the Oil majors in Nigeria’s economic life. They accept and acknowledge that the economic benefits of oil exploration overrides the down side of pollution and the destruction of traditional farming and fishing. They are able to lobby for jobs for technical and business experts from the ND into the Oil majors. They push for community development programmes and schemes from the oil majors. This group is at the forefront of Nigerian energy development policy and its overall impact on the operations of the oil majors in Nigeria. This group has been able to influence the FGN in relation to local content policy in the Oil industry thereby creating job opportunities for local people.

In relation to the local communities in the Niger Delta, this group is by far the most influential. They control leadership positions at the State level and are the natural class from which federal appointees (ministerial, board, ambassadorial, etc) and elected officials (Reps and Senators) are drawn. This political group is looked up to by the Niger Delta people as their natural representatives in relation to dealings with the Federation Government and the multinational Oil corporations.

The Business/ Economic Group There are some in the movement whose interest is purely economic and personal financial gain. This group of economic opportunists are business people purely concerned with using resource control to obtain supplies contracts from the Oil companies and the FGN. They are not interested in violent agitation and have only a cursory interest in the main political and environmental questions. Some in this group have become major contractors to the Federal Government and the Oil majors. They shy away from the more serious political confrontation with either the Oil majors or the FGN on the basis that you do not bite the hand that feeds you. They are still active in the debate and will continue to do so for obvious reasons. Success to this group means one thing- contracts and profits. They judge their success purely as business people do everywhere else in the world. And to the extent that some in this group have gained FG, NNPC, Oil majors supplies contracts you can say they are successful. Others in this group who have not been able to gain legitimate access to Oil services contracts have resorted to obtaining their share of the national cake by participating in illegal oil bunkering activities.

In relation to the local population this group has influence and prestige because having money or being perceived to have money or access to money is very highly prized by Nigerians generally. The worship of money and the rich in a society where poverty is wide spread is a very big religion. Some would argue that it is the main religion with Islam and Christianity coming a poor second. Some of the successful people in this group have achieved success and comfort far beyond the imagination of the average Nigerian with assets worldwide. They are envied, emulated and respected for their economic success.

This group are not in anyway interested in any political or local problems that could affect their pecuniary interest. They work very closely with the main contracts awarding bodies- the FG and its Oil Corporation (NNPC) and the Oil majors. They are not the major movers at the NPRC on the resource control debate.

The Militant Wing of Resource Control The last group is the group of local area boys and desperados who realized that there is money to be made in all this confusion and developed their own militant branch of resource control- that of gangsterism, protectionism, racketeering and aiding and abetting oil bunkering- under the disguise of resource control and fighting for the local population. In short, this is the Organized Crime Wing of resource control. This group has nothing but loathing for the political, environmental and business wing of the movement seeing them as no more than collaborators, opportunists and sell-outs. Some people will include Atake Tom’s Niger Delta Vigilante (NDV) group, Asari Dokubo’s Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force and Egbesu Boys in this group. Others will include Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People in this category as well.

The tactics of the militant wing are unconventional and mafia style. They are willing and prepared to and have used kidnapping, extortion, violence and threats of violence against who ever stands in their way- be they State Governors, the Nigerian Navy, the Oil majors or the security forces of the FG. They are heavily armed and highly dangerous individuals. We have seen in recent times kidnapping of foreign oil workers, shot out with the Nigerian Navy and Army, threats to State Governors and the FGN and attempts to carve out no go areas for the Oil majors and the Nigerian state-all in an attempt to force payouts and settlements from the Oil majors and the FG.

This group is predominantly led by working class local gangsters with a version of resource control based on frustration and resentment of being left out of the National Cake Sharing Party by the FG, Niger Delta political and business elites and the Oil majors. These are the disenfranchised. Whilst they generally echo the frustrations of most Niger Delta people in this regard, it is doubtful to what extent this group can carry the people with them. When push comes to shove, the people will listen and follow the lead of the traditional political elite as they are perceived as better educated with greater contacts at the level that matters (FG and Oil majors). For as we all know- contacts make contracts.

Politicians & the Militants With the advent of democratic rule since 1999 some of the local gangsters in the ND were hired by the new political elites as thugs, assassins, election riggers, enforcers and local bully- boys. They were probably armed and given cash to ensure their patrons electoral success in their locality. Some of this cash has been used to finance the purchase of more arms and to create private armies (a.k.a. volunteer forces and cults) for the gangsters so much so that sometimes they had more sophisticated weapons then the police and army sent to confront them.

These armed gangs have got so violent in recent times that their disruptions to Oil supplies was impacting on global oil prices and creating no go areas for the Oil companies. This has forced the FG and some ND States to dialogue with them and granted certain financial concessions and amnesty in return for the surrendering of arms and disbanding these violent gangs or so called volunteer forces. To what extent this policy has succeeded is open to debate. Some of these gangs were empowered, armed and financed by some local politicians and these gangs got so big that they had started to pose a threat to the state governments themselves- a classic case of the chickens coming home to roost. The policy of financial concessions and amnesty was to rein in the monster they had empowered that was now threatening to devour them. The gangs were given money but did they hand in all their weapons? The Effectiveness of Militancy Some in this group believe that this mafia and militant tactic will achieve results and make them millionaires- and it has, to some extent. They have partially succeeded with the violence and mafia tactics in that it has forced private settlements from the oil majors and the government. Some of the leaders have become rich as protectors for oil bunkering vessels in the Niger Delta. Others in the group see their role as the violence support brigade for the other resource control groups. By using violence, kidnapping and worse they figure they can force the Oil companies and FG to reach a compromise with the establishment group. The recent kidnapping of some German Oil Services workers and the walking out of the Niger Delta delegates at the NPRC illustrates this tactic. I am not saying it was coordinated but it coincidentally illustrates the point. The minority in the movement who see their violence as a tool of support see their role as very similar to the Sein Fein and IRA relationship in many ways.

The Militant faction gains publicity for their cause whenever they kidnap or kill, but the overall impression created in Nigeria and the international press is a bunch of Terrorists, Kidnappers, Hoodlums and Outlaws trying to create problems for the FG and the Oil companies producing the Oil which Nigeria sells to the West for survival, which in turn helps to fuel Western economies. I am not too sure how this group is perceived by the local indigenes. I guess they see them as the Militant wing of their struggle. Whether the local indigenes think or believe that the Militants can get them a fair and just settlement is a different matter altogether. I doubt it very much; otherwise they would be joining the Militants in tens of thousands. In so far as creating security problems for the Oil companies and the FG, they cannot be ignored because they are the main physical challenge to the FG and the Oil companies in the region. In so far as forcing a change in FG policy on resource control, their impact is limited.

The Response of the Oil Multinationals to Militancy The Oil majors have responded to this threat to their investment in different ways. Some in the Niger Delta have accused them of collaborating with the security forces in their heavy- handed policy against the militants during the violent days of the military dictators between 1984-1999. They have always denied this accusation.

They have put in place elaborate private security for their top foreign workers, staff quarters and to protect their installations in the Niger Delta. The massive private security industry in the Niger Delta is in response to the need of the multinationals in the region. They have excellent contacts with local law enforcement agencies in the Niger Delta and also with Federal Security Forces stationed in the Niger Delta. By n large, the oil- majors carry on their business in the volatile Niger Delta without significant or major interruption apart from the occasional kidnapping for ransom and damage to oil pipes from vandals and organised criminals.

The Oil majors have responded economically to the threat as well. They are the employers of choice for the local educated elite. They pay far above the local average wage and offer the very bright an opportunity for career advancement unrivalled by any other sector in Nigeria, private or government. In fact it is a thing of pride among the local workforce to say I work for Shell or Chevron Texaco or any of the other multinational oil companies- it is perceived as a sign of progress and social mobility. They have invested heavily in staff quarters, accommodation, welfare, healthcare and general conditions of employment is good by Nigerian standards.

The Oil majors also acknowledge the political and environmental issues and have a massive PR, Community & Government Relations machinery in place to win over the sceptical locals and protect their investment. They attempt to pay compensation to the local community whenever there is spillage and grant local supplies contract to the local business and political elites as a form of indirect protection money. They work in collaboration with the FGN and have been able to drive a wedge between the militant mafia style groups, the establishment political group and the rest of the ND population whose main concern is self, family and community advancement as opposed to trying to fight the FG or the oil majors.

The Response of the Federal Government to Militancy The intensity of the resource control campaign has varied over the years. During the Wild -Wild West days of the military presidents (1984-1999) it took a very violent turn and gave birth to several militant and tribal self-protection movements. These movements claimed they were acting in the interest of their land, their people and or their economic survival, and took on the FG and multinational oil exploration companies operating in their area The response of the FG has varied depending on who was in power and the severity of the disruption to its only source of Foreign Exchange. In the past, military governments have had little or no time to publicly engage or dialogue with this group and the relationship was often violent and brutal on both sides, with stories of killings of soldiers and police men and massive reprisals from the armed forces against ND villages and towns. Although the stick was often wielded out via the heavy FG security presence in the Niger Delta, the military boys used the carrot as well by appointing indigenes of the Niger Delta as Oil Ministers in the FG. They also tried different forms of FG funded Niger Delta Development Agencies to show that some of the oil money is being invested by the FG in the Niger Delta. This was particularly true during the regime of IBB and the late Abacha.

Although there have been reported cases of serious clashes between local militias and the security forces in the Niger Delta, the Obansanjo response has been more carrot than stick as you would expect in a democracy, but the overriding federal interest is still enforced. The FG approach since 1999 has been to deploy a combination of tools to tackle the problem. First, it meets its constitutional obligations to the Niger Delta by paying 13% derivation to the oil producing states; secondly, pumping billions of dollars into its development corporation for the Niger Delta known as the Niger Delta Development Corporation (NDDC). The NDDC is charged with spearheading and coordinating the FG development programme in the region; third, deploying a significant security, intelligence, military and naval presence in the trouble spot to protect Nigeria’s oil interests; fourth, ensuring the political victory of establishment politicians in the Niger Delta states and using political, security and ‘Nigerian means’ to ensure that the gangsters do not take control of this vital region; fifth, developing a local content policy in the Oil and Gas sector which hopefully will create job opportunities for the disenfranchised and reduce the sense of alienation from Oil, Prosperity and the Good Life ; lastly, attempting to legally outlaw some of the most violent groups in the Niger Delta.

The FG needs to completely overhaul its economic, political and security policy in the Niger Delta in an attempt to find a lasting solution to the Resource Control issue. The issue of derivation apart, it has a big PR and hearts and minds job in the region. How you win the hearts and minds of a people without jobs, food, proper housing and prospects is a difficult one. But it is preferable to wielding out the big stick of the Security Apparatuses of the Nigerian State whenever there is a problem. The FG needs to increase the role of the Security and Intelligence Services and reduce the physical presence of the regular forces (Army and Navy) so that they look less like an army of occupation as perceived by the Militants. Where were the Security Services when gangs were planning to kidnap and did kidnap oil workers in the Niger Delta? The Status of the Militants in the Current Resource Control Debate This militant/ mafia style group is on the fringe of the main debate and has no real or intellectual input into the great debate for resource control other than its ability to cause occasional violence against the Oil companies, their employees and FG forces to unpin their claim to relevance and a share of the National Cake. I don’t think they are working in concert with the ‘respectable’ political and business branch of the movement. They do not pose a real, substantial or imminent threat to Oil operations or to the Sovereignty of the Nigerian State in the Niger Delta. However the FG must find enduring solutions to the resource control issue and the proper disbandment of all militia groups in Nigeria before they completely get out of hand. And I mean militia groups not only in the ND but East, West and Far North as well. Nigeria needs effective, well- funded and motivated police and security services, not tribal and regional militias carving out no go areas for the FG and people going about their legitimate business. The FG should have a more robust approach to this issue before it gets too late. I remember once driving to Benin from Lagos. Just as we got to the outskirts of Lagos we noticed a group of men blocking the road. I said to my driver: what is happening? He said, maybe they are armed robbers. They approached my car at a gunpoint and started asking us silly questions like: where are you from and where are you going etc. After the exchange of a few words they waved us on our way with the butt of their pistols. They were OPC operatives providing a form of vigilante security service in the area. I am sure there are thousands of similar stories in Nigeria every day. Where is the Nigerian Police? Why are unlicensed civilians in civilian clothing carrying and brandishing arms in the Street in broad daylight? Resource Control and the National Political Reform Conference It is therefore not surprising that in the ongoing political reform conference in Nigeria the issue of resource control has raised its head again and is the number one issue for delegates from the Niger Delta states. The political wing of the movement is obviously in charge of the agitation for resource control at the conference. Some have argued for 100% resource control-they must know it is impossible. Others have said 5o-50 between the FG and SG- they probably know this is unobtainable.

In my previous article- Observations On the New Constitution- I stated that oil resources belongs to Nigeria and not where it is located. I accept a certain level of derivation for the states, but think it would be unfair to the rest of the country if the Niger Delta gets 100 or 50% derivation. I proposed a slight increase from the current 13% to either 17 or 19% to take into account the yearnings of the Niger Delta people and to give their governments more resources with which to develop their areas. I think an increase to 17-19% is not a bad idea. In real terms this could put a few hundred million dollars in their coffers. If you add the NDDC expenditure to the proposed percentage, we are probably talking about 20%+ in real terms. Not bad.

My view is that if derivation to the state is too high it will directly affect the ability of the FG to maintain the Nigerian State. It could even place the centre at the financial mercy of the Niger Delta region. The Centre must not be weakened for the sake of any single region. I have always said that in order to maintain the equilibrium in Nigeria no region or geo political zone should be placed in a position where it’s so powerful that it can effectively hold the rest of the nation to ransom either in Military, Political or Economic terms. Therefore, granting 50-60% derivation will basically make the FG a junior partner in the Oil business in Nigeria. That is not possible. Consequently, any attempt or arrangement that might potentially weaken the centre and its financial ability to carry out its functions across Nigeria should be resisted. And besides, the FG is and should continue to be a major force in the development efforts for the region. I think 17- 19% is not a bad deal for the region. If that is what the rest of Nigeria think is fair then the Niger Delta should accept it and use the increased revenue wisely. They are still getting more money in real terms than the other geo political zones in Nigeria. It is progress.

The ND reps at the Conference have put their case, the rest of Nigeria have put theirs. If the vote is for 17 or 19%, so be it. There is no point walking out just because they did not get what they wanted. They have made their case and the Jury (conference) has given its verdict. Walking out will not make them change their minds; neither do I think it politically wise. To an outside observer it shows that they have lost the debate. If we are to be honest I think the Niger Delta delegates knew that equal or total derivation was never on the cards. If the question was to be determined by the Niger Delta delegates alone, then fine, they can have 110% derivation. But the political reality is that of the 36 States in Nigeria today they only have 6 states (Edo, Delta, Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River and Akwa Ibom); of the six geo political zones, they have just one. If we assume that the ND delegates were 1/6th of the total delegates at the Conference, where did they think the support would come from? They should return to the Conference and make their contributions on other national issues. I am all for facing political realities. The ND region must now move on to the next issue of getting the FG to increase the budget of the NDDC so that the Federal Government can do more to improve the lives of the ND peoples. They must also prepare themselves for the post conference position and realign for 2007. To those delegates who say they cannot go back to the Niger Delta and face their people if the don’t get 100% or 50% derivation, please don’t worry, go home. I don’t think any serious thinking person in the Niger Delta with basic political knowledge expected you to get equal or total derivation.

Conclusion There is no doubt that resource control is a major political issue for the Nigerian State and will continue to be so for a long time to come. The competing interests must take into account not only what is good and fair for them but also what is good and fair for the others so as to achieve an enduring solution on the issue. The overriding interest should be the interest of the Nigerian State   John Iyobhebhe is a director of a City of London based international financial services search and selection firm. He is also Dean of Academics & Lecturer at RIMS Institute of Management Sciences in the Docklands of London. He was educated at Trinity Hall Cambridge and King’s College London. He was once Political Assistant to a Member of Parliament at Westminster. He is an occasional Commentator and Analyst on African Affairs with special reference to Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa.