This general state of insecurity often leads to disenchantment among the populace, mass revolt (revolution) and atimes the break-up of any government.  This leads us to the recent situational report/prediction by an America Security Organization that Nigeria may break-up in the next fifteen years, given the present indices on ground.

This assessment/prediction was not taken kindly to by the present Civilian administration under President Olusegun Obasanjo and has consequently gone ahead to tag the security report a prophecy of doom and a deliberate attempt by some Western powers to bring down the government and cause the dismemberment of the Country.

Right and orderly as this reaction of the Nigerian government may look, some realists in and outside Nigeria have cautioned that rather than condemn the American Security report on Nigeria, Nigerian government and indeed Nigerians should sit and give a realistic view of the happenings in the Country and project if it could indeed lead to the break-up of the Country in fifteen years to come.

This crop of realists urged the government to take the report as an advice/warning, rather than castigating the author of the Security report.  While urging the government to put into place without delay such moves/actions that will prove wrong the prediction in the security report, they querried if those reasons advanced in the security report as the likely reasons for the break-up of the country are not being notices in the country.

Nigeria as an entity is bound together by love, respect, mutual understanding and above all, justice and fair play among the constituent parts.

The current situation in Nigeria indicates that these essential ingredients that bound the Country together is fast eroding.  People no longer have confidence in government and in one another.  There are complaints of cheatings, injustice and unfair treatment being meted out to people.  Consequently, while some people are demanding for immediate normalization of the decaying situation, others are threatening secession as the only solution to the problems in Nigeria.

Despite this state of hopelessness and despair that is starring the Country in the face, the present administration of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo has not done any better to address the situation.  The whole system is woven around corruption/general decay, both in morals and real governmental system.

In short, the very foundation which is the democratic process that brought the present administration into power is shrouded with fraudulent electoral malpractices although the apex Court has ruled otherwise.  All arms of government, including the judiciary is enmeshed in large scale corruption.

Thus, it is a common occurrence in Nigeria today to hear that the top echelon of the executive or the legislature or the judiciary is involved in one scandal or the other.

This happenings is in the face of hunger, general decay in the provision of social amenities, rise in social ills such as armed robbery, assassination, inter-ethnic/religious crisis, rise in the birth/activities of regional defence groups that have of recent become very militant and violent.

The Judiciary Most worrisome is the recent happenings in the Nigerian Judiciary.  The Nigerian Judiciary which is expected to be the last hope of the ordinary Nigerian has of recent caved in to moral decadence and corruption, thus putting the hopes of the Nigerian masses in jeopardy.

A typical case in study is the recent Supreme Court Judgement (1/7/05) on the 2003 presidential election that was widely known to be full of electoral malpractices.  Nigerians were not at all too surprised with the Supreme Court judgement which validify President Olusegun Obasanjo’s electoral victory, because it is not normal in Nigerian context to remove an incumbent governor or president no matter the degree of illegalities surrounding his ascension to power, what baffles Nigerians is the No case verdict delivered by the Supreme Court, even in the face of glaring facts/evidence.

Most amusing is the drama epilogue to the judgement of the Supreme Court on the Presidential election. Various methods such as blackmail, intimidation, harassment and threats were deployed by government agents to cow the judiciary to submission in favour of the government that is standing trial before the Supreme Court.  This method of intimidating people to submission is becoming a common practice in Nigeria.

Consequently, Nigerians have lost hope in the judiciary and indeed the entire system.  What now persists is hopelessness and despair in aggrieved and hunger-striken Nigerians.

It will therefore not be an exaggeration to say that Nigeria masses have gotten to a point where they are ready to stake their lives to defend or salvage the unbearable and unacceptable situation.  If the bold stance of Nigerians who had gone to witness the Supreme Court judgement last week, as when they confronted the trigger-happy Nigerian Police is not a pointer to say that the people have been pushed to the wall and are now ready more than ever before to turn and face the challenges, the present situation at the government organized National Political Reform Conference where the sharp ethnic divide as a result of resource control is threatening the corporate existence of the Country is enough a signal that the Nigerian balloon has been air-filled beyond the peak and could burst open any time.

This reality will come to pass if Nigerian government continue to believe that Nigerians are packs of ignorants and foolishly enduring lots.  Should in case the Nigeria-balloon is allowed to burst, both Nigeria as a Country and the International Community will not be good for it.

Whole Nigeria is likely to turn into pieces and possibly get engulfed in Civil unrest/war, the International Communities will not be spared.  Various business interests owned by foreign Countries will be endangered, particularly, the oil installation, which is today part of the controversial aspects of the Nigeria resources.

Similarly, the Western World will be held partly responsible for the woes of the Country, especially for aiding and abetting corruption in Nigeria.  This is because most of those that have ran the economy of the Country aground through corrupt practices, have in Countries of the Western World a safe haven for their ill-gotten wealth.

In the same manner, these Western Countries with business interest in Nigeria, especially in the area of oil exploration have not done any thing tangible to develop the devastated area, where they do their oil exploration, hence the frequent incidents of attack on foreign oil companies in the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria by aggrieved youths. Or is it that the provision made by these foreign oil explorers are diverted to private pockets by their indigene dignitaries?   Finally, as the time ticks by, it will be a question of time before the reality dawn on us.  Unless if there is a quick change of heart by government and Nigerian Leaders or if the military class decides to stage a come back to clean the mess, the prediction that Nigeria may eventually break-up, may turn to be a prophecy accompli.

Ahmed Adoke

adomuha63@yahoo.co.uk