Is It Really Worth Fighting For A Third Term?

By

Reno Omokri

renoomokri@yahoo.co.uk

Nigeria stands now at a crossroads. We all know how when Nigerians gather together to talk about our country, everybody is always impressed at how bright we are, how lucid our arguments are, and finally how apt our suggestions for making things better. Universally, we are known as good talkers. But talk is cheap! What we have to learn to do is to turn our talk into action. Obasanjo by most accounts when compared to the type of leadership we had in the past is a well-grounded leader. What he lacks in finesse, he makes up for in his singleness of mind, his undeterred belief in the infallibility of what he is doing. Some may term this as stubbornness, but it may be better to have a leader who would take a stand on something, even a wrong stand, than one who wrings his hands while all hell is let loose.

From the first crisis of his presidency i.e. the sharia issue where he refused to be provoked to take a rash action, to the Odi issue, it is obvious that Obj has as his priority the continued corporate existence of Nigeria. He shies away from taking drastic action when that might affect the continued existence of Nigeria, and then overreacts where he feels that such overreaction would scare different groups who might want to rock the boat a la Zaki Biam, Odi and Plateau state.

In all these, any unbiased commentator will agree that Obj has achieved quite a lot. He has put together an excellent economic management team that has amongst others stabilised the exchange rate, and has seen the country reach a $30 billion dollar foreign reserve savings, astutely managed the excess crude oil account unlike what obtained in the past, and has stabilised inflation rate to a manageable level.

Yes he has also served as a stabilising influence in West Africa and perhaps Africa. We only need to remember his intervention in Sao Tome and Principe and Liberia, but most recently in Darfur, Sudan.

Perhaps the star of his achievements will be the recent cancellation of the nations debt to the tune of $18 billion from the Paris club as a way of recognising the president’s fight against corruption.

So yes, the president or his supporters and advisers may see all of these and be tempted to suggest that he should stay “ a bit longer” to quote Obj in Berlin. After all, if we have such a good pilot, why change him in rough whether?

Daily, Nigerians have now become inundated with request for the president to have a third term. They are told it is good for stability and that the president means well for the country.

But let us pause for a minute. He means well! Is that any reason for us to allow him to stay on after 2007 because he means well. This same argument, has been used time and time again to turn otherwise good men into tyrants. And it is not even the tyrant that is the worse of all these. No! What we have to fear is the precedent.

You see, if we allow the Nigerian constitution to be changed to allow Obasanjo to stay on for a third term, what we have done is to set a precedent. And it is not very easy to argue against a precedent. So let us assume that Obasanjo really does have good intentions and we allow him to stay on, how do we know that the next person who will want to take advantage of the precedent of a third term will be a person with “good intentions”?

The thing is that we have to go beyond promoting individuals, we have to promote institutions and strengthen them to such an extent that these institutions are so strong they can not be compromised by individuals whether good or bad.

For example, if we strengthen THE Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to such an extent that no one person can control the board that manages INEC, then it would not matter who becomes the INEC boss, as he would be constrained by the institutional rigidity to do what he has to do rather than what he wants to do. If we allow the National Assembly to function how its meant to function without external influences, that is allow its elected members to choose their leaders without coercion, to watch over the executive without fear of persecution, then it would not matter who gets there, because they would be constrained by the institution to act the way the institution was designed to act.

It is some times necessary to remind Nigerians that our leaders can only get away with what we allow them to get away with. If we do not want an action, we don’t just layback and allow it to happen. We don’t just TALK about the problem, then when it comes to the time of doing something, and then we keep quiet.

I like and respect Hon. Aminu Bello Masari. He has ensured that for a very long time there was harmony between the house and the executive because there was no need for friction between the two institutions. But when the president’s admirers started to take the third term idea into full throttle, he knew that he just had to speak, to be on the side of the people. That is a classic example of an institution having superceded a relationship. Because we are aware that Masari became speaker through Obasanjo’s influence. Now it lies on the house to protect Speaker Masari from any onslaught that might be visited on him for publicly challenging the third term agenda.

Mr. Obasanjo has to know that if he gives into the temptation to attempt a third term, he will be setting a precedent that is going to weaken democracy in Nigeria and eventually destroy all he has achieved.

Where as, if he makes the institutions that he has put in place have stronger, then he would one day find his image on the highest denomination of currency.

Because though he will certainly have much power if he succeeds in his third term, his authority would have diminished. Not just that, he wont have the moral high ground to go after the corrupt, because he would be seen as corrupt. But even more than that, all the good things he did as president will now be suspect because the suspicion would be that he did them not because he meant well, but because he meant to use those achievements as justification for clinging on to power long after the ovation has died down. Thus his achievements will no longer be achievements, but a means to an end. Which will make his only achievement be that he successfully had a third term. I am sure Obasanjo would not like to be remembered like that.

But that would really be a pity, because it will make all Obasanjo’s international friends that he likes to impress very disappointed. In their minds it will be like oh this man that we thought was better than Mobutu, Babangida, Mugabe and a host of other sit tight rulers was just another pretender. And that would be a shame, a terrible shame because Obasanjo has a lot to lose. He would make people see his voluntary hand over to civilians in October of 1979 as something else. They would think perhaps it was not so voluntary, maybe he was not the gentleman we thought he was.

So is it really worth it, risking all ones lifetime of achievement for a few more years in power with diminished authority and a shaky platform that will most probably attract all kinds of odium on his person? I can only say that if it were me, I would not think twice before quitting when the ovation was loudest.

Reno Omokri,

Abuja Nigeria.