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Wanted: A Vision For Post-Obasanjo Nigeria By Jonathan Manok
If Atiku Abubakar and other readers are hoping to find in here strategies of how to win his battle with General Olusegun Obasanjo they will be utterly disappointed. Rather I am concerned with a matter of more national importance, which is nevertheless related to the feud between these two top citizens of our land.
There is no doubt that the major fall-out of Obasanjo’s deliberate attempt to overheat the polity in his quest for undiluted and prolonged dictatorial rule is that governance has taken a back seat. Priority is now accorded to the struggle for the control of the PDP or rather the struggle between democracy and dictatorship. If the last six years have not yielded the best governance possible then the next 18 months will be even worse. From now until then all we have is politics, yes politics of the crudest variety. So I am concerned more about the future. I have no doubt that Nigerians will again defeat this latest attempt by a military man to impose enduring dictatorship on them. Victory won’t be easy. In fact it will get worse before it gets better. My fear though is that Atiku or whoever else might succeed Obasanjo may be so pre-occupied by this struggle to defeat tyranny that he or she would forget to articulate a clear vision of the post Obasanjo-period. In other words, Atiku or whoever emerges victorious in 2007 might win and find that he/she has no agenda other than what currently exists, in the form that it exists.
There is, therefore, a need for them to devote a little time to articulating a clear vision of where they plan to take this country. Since Atiku seems to be the main man at this moment it will be necessary for him to take this matter seriously whatever the distractions of the battle against the Obasanjo tyranny. If he has not done so already he should put together a team that would work closely with him to put together a programme of action in case he emerges victorious in 2007. This team must include different stakeholders, including labour and civil society organizations that have been his allies in the struggle against tyranny and who have a feel for what the grassroots are going through.
If you ask me this won’t take too much time, energy or resources. I am persuaded that Atiku believes in the core reform agenda of this government. What he is unlikely to be happy about is the manner of its implementation and the arrogance and callousness with which it is being done. I have no doubt that he is comfortable with many of the key figures implementing the current reform agenda. After all he is reported to have brought many of them into government. Since he has proven to be a good talent scout, I believe that he will still be willing to work with them, especially since they are unlikely to behave arrogantly in an Atiku government given that their would-be boss is not like that. In short Atiku is likely to believe (I think rightly) that a changed environment, specifically a change at the top will turn these people into the professionals that they are, people who are committed to getting the job done. It is commendable that Atiku and his people have not in any way antagonized these reformers. That would make working together as a team easier. Since it is clear to everyone that Obasanjo is the problem it would be foolhardy to take the battle to the reformers who, like everyone else are victims of this one-man wrecking crew. Does anybody really believe that Okonjo-Iweala, El’Rufai, Bode Augusto and Charles Soludo are happy that, with less than three months to the end of the year, the 2005 budget has hardly been implemented? Which school of economics would teach that?
In summary because the future of this country is at stake Atiku and all those fighting for real democracy must devote some time to the articulation of a clear vision of where this country is to go and how it will get there. If I am to offer free advice I would say that we do not need any new grand vision or grand initiatives at this time. Just work out a way of getting people in different theatres of our public life to do the little things that they are supposed to do, the way the rules prescribe and this country will stand on its feet. In other words what this country needs at this time is proper management. That requires a seasoned and disciplined administrator. And when that vision is articulated Atiku’s people need to find ways to make those positions public, even if in broad outlines, so that Nigerians will know their principal better and, therefore, have a better sense of what they might be getting if they elect the man.
As for the on-going feud between democrats represented by Atiku and the autocrats represented by Obasanjo, I strongly believe that, with proper mobilization across the country by democrats, Obasanjo will turn around and either support Atiku or remain neutral when the chips are down. He will do so not because of his love for Atiku. Rather he will do so because he would have ran out of options on how to thwart his deputy’s ambition, and more importantly to save his own skin. Of course he is likely to lay mines everywhere for Atiku to trip on.
If you examine the man’s antecedents you will easily find that although he loves this country, he loves himself more. That is why in matters of politics what matters to him the most is how he emerges in the end rather than the fate of the group he works with or the health of the country. Call it political selfishness or whatever but that is the way he sees things. And he is not the only one guilty of it. He just does not have the sophistication, refinement or finesse to hide his own. Crude exercise of absolute power is all he knows, understands and prefers as long as he is the one dishing it out to others. So he is likely to abandon the goons that he has hired to seize the PDP for him. This he will do to save himself from imminent disgrace or worse. We all know that he has a long history of using and discarding people as it suits him at any particular time. One just hopes that in this case he does that early enough to save the country from further trauma.
Jonathan Manok University of Abuja Abuja, Nigeria
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