Third Term or the End of Democracy? By Muhammad Bashir Usman African continent in general, like the experience of Latin America and some sizeable portion of South-East Asia has been a historically sorry affair as far as democratization is concerned. From the barbaric era of slavery, through colonialism, racism (in particularly South Africa ),dashed hope of nationalism to military and civilian dictatorship, the continent has found the epidemic of sit-tight dictatorship to be one of its greatest undoing and quite a leading contributor to its rampant civil war and endless circle of economic underdevelopment. Thus, Abdel Nasser who imported military dictatorship from Latin America in 1952 was later succeeded by Sadat and Husni Mubarak, Paul Eyadema has been in Togo since 1962,Ghaddafi since 69—and there has been a host of other military dictators tightening their grip on power in Africa.Here in Nigeria, we had Gowon for nine years, IBB for eight while Abacha was unpredictable until death seized him in 1998,after five years in power. Then civilian autocracy emerged with Ghana being the front runner in 197 0s later to be followed by Nigeria during the Second Republic. Nontheless, it remained a zero-percent progress when you read the histories of,say for example, Tunisia under Bourgiba, Tanzania under Nyerere, Malawi under Kamuzu Banda or even Zambia under Kenneth Kaunda as its supposed life president. Still, the story is the same in Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and –until recent revolutions- Algeria undermine the constitution and unleash the security forces on the people in order to make themselves the maximum rulers of the countries. At 80 after 25 years in power, Robert Mugabe is still rigging elections to enjoy another five years as the Zimbabwean despot. Mobutu Seseseko was an outstanding figure among dictators in Africa. Think of Uganda, Burkina Faso and hitherto Namibia. All the same—one man and one party dictatorship. Umar Bongo has, barely two weeks ago after 38 year despotism won another election to rule Gabon in the next seven years.It is business as usual as far as African rulers are concerned. That is why Obasanjo wants to take Nigerians for another ride come 2007.The most funny side of it all is the ongoing legislative proposal on conducting opinion poll to gauge the aggregate views of Nigerian people concerning the third term blueprint. Yes-Nigerian people as to quote from Suleman Kumo cannot vote for the president anymore so long as they remain in their human mentality. Why was it necessary for the president to rig the 2003 elections if he believes in his popular public image? Truth to be told however, Obasanjo can get away with whatever rascality he deems fit having cajoled members of the National Assembly the last six wasted years. Since he is the supreme commander in the nation to hire and fire, do and undo what he likes and dislikes, he can trample upon the constitution even if, as it never seems, he fails to get the mandate of the National Assembly. If Sam Njuoma could twist as many as five times, the supreme constitution of Namibia to give himself another tenure—why can’t Obasanjo? Remember during the last Reform conference. Some of them went to court in protest of his constitutional breach seeking the court to stop him yet endorsed the outcome at the behest of Ghana –must –go inducement. I heard 38 members from the upper house received 10 million Naira each while their colleagues in the lower house, numbering 107 partook of 6 million apiece as part of their mobilization allowances.Indeed, that is all the president needs to get away with another tenure come 2007. And now among his chances. Like it happened during the last 419 elections, Obasanjo can instrumentalise the duo of Nigeria n police and the so –called Independent Electoral Commission to do his bidding in the next general election. Didn’t we hear the new INEC boss, professor Maurice Iwu saying there will be no any election monitors and they will only condone electronic voting in the 2007 elections? Who needs to know why such statements are coming from a supposed Electoral chairman? Besides, The president of the Nigeria Manufacturers Association, Chris Ugwu told the nation recently that Obasanjo is better allowed to round off his reform programmes. Worse,he said it is the collective view of his colleagues within the sector. Not only Ugwu, among the promoters o f the third term agenda are the sitting Senate president, Ken Nnamani, Nzeribe, Mantu, Tafida, Jerry Gana, David Mark, Festus Odimegwu, MD Nigerian Breweries, Omar Hambagda, Tony Anenih and a host of other crooks in the country. I digress. Faced with the possibility if not reality of his deputy, Atiku Abubakar sneaking to succeed him in 2007,Baba embarked upon a serial plot to uproot the former’s seeming political pillars across the country. As such ,perceived members of the VP’s camp began coming under clandestine witchunt , deadly attacks and political persecutions all at apparent presidential instigation. Events started with the VP himself receiving threats of enquiry into his alleged handling of the NPC, a constitutional post he chaired but which was unduly terminated by the vengeful president. That was happening when his personal aides had been removed arrogantly by the president. Came the Adamawa gubernatorial election petition, where the tribunal was primed to nullify Boni’s re-election. It was on that occasion that the Vice president nearly lost his temper with his enemies. Thanks to God he didn’t. It is more than obvious that Obasanjo has openly declared a war on his deputy. And that only highlights how adamantly fixed Baba Aremu remains to his much talked about sit–tight agenda.His revenge mission does not spare even Atiku’ men in the polity. Where is Audu Ogbeh, Tafa Balogun despite his past complicity in Baba’s gang rape on democracy. Joshua Dariye and of late, Alamieyesei gha are another examples. They are in no way bigger crooks than the other sitting governors across the nation yet continue to receive threat of legal prosecution and possible impeachment under the of money laundering offences. Think of Hamisu Mai rago, a young breed now in the net of Ribadu’s EFCC. Al –Bishak, an editorial board member of the New Nigerian Newspaper, was sacked for writing an editorial, exposing in it, the real machinations of Obasanjo’s foot soldiers within the party aimed at weeding out the VP and his political allies considered a threat to the third term ambition. There is no gainsaying however, that Al-Bishak’s dismissal would not be unconnected with his putative closeness to Boni Haruna, his class mate from primary school and Atiku’s biggest boy in the country. Even the last Confab as I once said, was a two- way traffic to achieve a hidden agenda by the president with regards to his tenure extension. On one hand, it was a plot to give the Zuma treatment to Atiku through constitutional impeachment. On the other, it was designed to teleguide the outcome of the conference to draft a resolution endorsing tenure extension for the president-subject to approval by the National Assembly. (see my recent article titled : The Aftermath of the Illegal Confab.. on gamji site, archive ;57 for details ).Even though efforts to bring down Atiku proves abortive to the Villa,he still has a long way to go in warding off the missiles of his political hunters as we advance to 2007 elections. This is a no-easy task given that Obasanjo has already hijacked and to some extent militarized the party in the last ten months. That the party is now in the hands of the president’s clique is not a new story to even a casual observer. We all saw what happened to the VP and his staunch loyalists during the last re-registration skullduggery. Think of the new-found non-elective convention hatched and canvassed illegally by members of Obasanjo’s third term project. Only a dundee cannot see the writings on the wall for Atiku. Most glaringly, his personal security is now being undermined by the Villa. We heard that his ADC, one Abdullahi Yari was detained and relived of his duty by top security operatives in the Federal Capital Territory just a week ago.His crimes: alleged security breach and playing politics with his master. Imagine! That was what happened to Orji Kalu less than a year ago now. The VP is hereby advised to reject any other person presented to him as did Kalu-otherwise he will find himself working with a planted spy in his house. He that worked with Obasanjo during the first four years knows his manouevres more than any other person in the country. He should learn more from the Ige and Dikibo experiences before the head is cut off. Reports say there is another plot to link him to sponsoring Islamic terror and to masterminding a phan tom coup in order to justify his planned humiliation Nevertheless, while it remains true that Atiku was quite instrumental to all the PDP destruction of the country during the first tenure, one cannot stand up for justice, fairness and democracy in Nigeria today without supporting him in his cold war with the president. It is that ironical. Meanwhile, as the tortuous journey towards 2007 elections continues, I will like quote some words of caution from the late Wada Nas’ column published in the Weekly Trust edition of March 20th,2004 where he warns: ‘We must pray that this insinuation (that Obasanjo is plotting to perpetuate himself come 2007)is not true, for if it turns out to be so, Obasanjo, his governors and political parties should be prepared to account for what may befall this country as a consequence, because this is a recipe for serious disaster and calamity. For any one to change the constitution only for the purpose of re-imposing Obasanjo on Nigerians again knows he is courting a serious doom for the country, which not even the security forces may be able to contain. It should be noted that the will of the people is stronger than the gun. In spite of the Georgian Army, the people removed their president without using even a stick and we are all witnesses to what is happening in Haiti, we don’t want it here.’ Lastly, there is no possible option for the president than to vacate the seat as was unanimously scheduled come 2007.Nigerian people cannot hack him any longer from May 29th, and failure to do so will very likely unleash devastating consequences on the nation. It spells doom for democracy and all Nigerians will rise against him. Yes-we can! We shall!! We must!!! And Now This….My hearty condolence to Sheikh Dahiru Usman Bauchi, his family and the entire Muslim ummah, particularly the Tijjaniya disciples, over the recent loss of his eldest son, Dr. Hadi Dahiru Usman Bauchi who died in a fatal auto crash on Monday,5th December, 2005.Hadi’s mother also died less than two weeks ago. May their two souls rest in perfect peace and may Almighty Allah grant their family as well as members of the entire Islamic fraternity -- the fortitude to bear his tragic loss, amen. Muhammad Bashir Usman is writing from Kaduna and is reachable always at bashirsenior@yahoo.com
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