|
Would-be-Dictators and American Foreign Policy By Dr. Nura Alkali
The recent comments of a U.S. official concerning president Obasanjo's third-term agenda could not have come at a better time for most Nigerians. In separate press interviews, Mr. Mike Cohen, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs made it abundantly clear that the United States is not favourable to the idea of a constitutional amendment that would pave the way for president Obasanjo to succeed himself in May 2007, when the tenure of his administration will have expired.
Kudos to Mr. Cohen and the United States government for their bold stand on this issue. For the first time in recent memory, America appears to be acting out of sheer altruism and conscience, rather than economic and strategic interests that have guided her foreign policy in the recent past. If we are witnessing a shift in American foreign policy, it is a laudable one and should be appreciated by every freedom-loving Nigerian.
Following Mr. Cohen's remarks, the presidency at first told the Americans to mind their business, that Nigeria needed no lesson in democracy from them. And then the Daily Independent of 29th December 2005 reported how the presidency is once again miffed that Mr. Cohen compared Mr. Fani-Kayode , Obasanjo's press spokesman, to Tariq Aziz, Iraq's information minister under Saddam Hussein.
President Obasanjo and Mr. Fani-Kayode may feign anger over remarks made by Mr. Cohen and several Nigerians concerning the third-term agenda, but the two should both know that Nigeria is truly a giant, populated by all sorts of people - the dull, the mediocre, the intelligent and the true geniuses.
Obasanjo deliberately avoids answering questions relating to his third-term agenda, while Fani-Kayode is daily reminding Nigerians that if Mr. Obasanjo were to leave the scene come 2007, no one could c ontinue with the task of fighting corruption and improving Nigeria's image. When a cleric said there are over 130 million Nigerians alive today, many of whom could perform as well as Obasanjo, Mr. Fayode replied that it is a matter of quality, not quantity. In other words, not a single Nigerian alive today can match the leadership qualities of Obasanjo. This was not a line from a children's television cartoon, but the official statement from a president who was liberated from jail and handed the presidency in a spirit of reconciliation! Absolute power truly corrupts absolutely.
If Mr. Obasan jo thinks that a career in the military and a few years in prison have taught him the art of deception, he should remember that advanced fee fraud, also known as 419, originated from Nigeria and is now a multi-million dollar business practiced in far away places such as Canada and China.
If he thinks he is intelligent, he should realize that the Nigerian military has never been famous for recruiting intelligent officers, except for a few individuals who joined the army under certain circumstances. On the other hand, a Nigerian has won the Nobel Prize in literature and thousands of other Nigerians have excelled in the fi elds of medicine, computer science, astronomy and mathematics, both at home and abroad. Mr. President, all Nigerians are not fools.
Since the thinly-veiled attempt at third-term is not working, what next is a would-be dictator to do? There are two options:
Option 1. The president should come out ope nly and defy America. The administration should proceed with the planned constitution review referendum slated for January 9th. Just as they did in 2003, INEC shall announce a turn-out rate of 90-130% of registered voters, with most Nigerians opting for a third-term, or even fourth-term, for the one and only person who can deliver Nigeria in these trying times. Of course, the opposition political parties will not accept the results and there would be mass up-risings in Kano, Lagos and other cities. There would be nationwide chaos, particularly in the Niger Delta, where militias will use the opportunity to increase their attacks on oil pipelines and kidnap more and more foreigners, including Americans. The pri ce of a barrel of oil will then surpass the 80 USD mark in the international market. What is America to do? Well, going by precedence, it is easy to predict their behavior, lest I be accused of guiding their hand here. The U.S. Secretary of State announces that America does not recognize the constitutional referendum, but Fani-Kayode will tell them to mind their business. At best, the United States and the EU brings the government to its knees by diplomatic and economic sanctions. At worst, America invades Nigeria, with or without UN mandate, topples the government and captures the kingpins in Aso Rock. Mr. Cohen's reference to Tariq Aziz and Saddam Hussein should not escape Obasanjo and Fani-Kayode as the two Iraqi helmsmen are now facing genocide and other charges in Iraq, both having been captured easily and jailed by the same Americans that they used to defy.
Option 2: The president should come out categorically and announce that he will be handing over to a successor on 29th May 2007. He should continue with the policies of his administration and should allow democracy to take its course by not interfering with the PDP convention to select a presidential candidate. If he has problems with his vice-president and does not wish to be succeeded by him (rightly or wrongly), thousands of other Nigerians are suitable for the office of president. After handing over, he will find that leaving the presidential office gracefully may be an aberration in Africa but in many parts of the world, past presidents are a dime a dozen. He will then join the hall of fame and rub shoulders at charity galas with people like Nelson Mandela and Bill Clinton. He will be welcomed in any country he chooses to visit, a privilege not enjoyed by one of his predecessors in Nigeria today.
Which road he chooses is up to him. The clock is ticking and we are watching.
Dr. Nura H. Alkali
|