America Should Be Neutral On Third Term

By

J. E. Iyobhebhe

iyobhebhe@hotmail.com

The current Nigerian constitution allows for a maximum of two consecutive elected terms for the President and State Governors. There is speculation that the President wants to hang on to power for more than two terms. Critics point to the 2005 National Political Reform conference, the removal of non-OBJ loyalists from party and government machinery, the current constitutional review process, the absence of credible campaigners for the 2007 presidential elections as indications that the President does not wish to relinquish power in 2007.

The President has said on several occasions that he does not intend to breach the Nigerian constitution. That he wants to retire to Ota Farm in 2007. He has never said he wants a third term. Critics say his body language and political events in Nigeria indicate a third term desire.

Some Nigerians have accused the western powers of a conspiracy of silence on the issue and as the 3rd term debate enters a new phase some former US officials and diplomats have made their views known. They would be opposed to any move by President Obasanjo to elongate his tenure by any means. They would like him to respect the spirit and letter of the 1999 constitution. Some say this is also the official line of the US government. In diplomatic protocol, the US cannot interfere in the internal political affairs of Nigeria.

Nigeria has cordial and friendly relations with the US. The US is the first country of choice for most Nigerians looking for greener pastures or a better life overseas. In fact over 2-3 million US citizens could be of direct Nigerian descent. Most of our students want to study in the US; most of our doctors and professionals want to emigrate to the US; even the 419 BOYS cannot resist the allure of the almighty US Dollar; our youth follow the leadership of the US in music, entertainment and popular culture. The average Nigerian aspires to an American lifestyle. The US is a major importer of Nigerian crude and is a strategic partner with Nigeria in Africa and the Ecowas sub region. Cordial and friendly relations with Uncle Sam are important to Nigeria for economic and strategic reasons.

Does America have a right to take an interest in political developments in our country? Of course they are entitled to take an interest. They are entitled to counsel and advise our leaders privately, in the same way that you would advise or counsel a friend. What the US is not entitled to do is to start making official statements and utterances that could be deemed undue interference in the internal political affairs of a sovereign Nigerian nation. That would not be in the best interest of US-Nigerian relations. America cannot have a greater interest in Nigerian democracy than Nigerians. Nigerians will determine in their own way what happens in 2007.

I, personally, do not think it prudent for the Nigerian government to react to comments by some former ‘second grade’ State Department officials on the speculated third term ambition of Mr. President. However, the Nigerian government should make representations if the current US Ambassador to Nigeria or the current Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs or Condi Rice makes official proclamations on the issue of a hypothetical third term. It was reported recently that the current U.S. ASS for Africa, Dr. Frazer, made comments indicating US opposition to a speculated third term. If such reports are accurate then the Nigerian government should make it clear that the Review of the 1999 constitution is an internal political affair that should be allowed to run its due course without foreign interference. We need to maintain good relations with the United States for a variety of reasons, but the relationship must not be a Master and Servant one. The US should be mindful of this fact. If, for example, a serving or former Nigerian diplomat makes pronouncements on the unfair treatment of African Americans in US society today, I am sure the US will not take kindly to such comments. In fact, I don’t think any Nigerian diplomat would have the audacity to counsel the US on how to ensure a more inclusive democracy for all Americans. Such a person would be sent packing.

The US must not overplay its role as the global policeman of democracy. Democracy comes in different shapes and sizes, just like mars bars. Every nation must be allowed to develop its own brand. The US brand, for all its fame, is certainly not the one and only version. We in Nigeria are still working out our own version. In time we shall have a version that we too can export to the rest of Africa. The US should bear with us.

The President, the first democratically elected Nigerian president since1983, has said that he intends to respect the Nigerian constitution as it stands. He has never said or declared a Third Term ambition. If our Legislators wish to review the 1999 constitution and remove the impediments to a third term, that is up to our legislators at the national and state level. There are no guarantees that our legislators will remove the impediments to a third term. Besides, even if they do, there is no guarantee the President can be persuaded to change his retirement plan come 2007. Until the dust has settled on the Constitutional Review process, we are all in the realms of political speculation. It is possible OBJ has no personal ambition for a third term. One thing is clear however, the 3rd term debate has exposed a lot of our politicians for who they really are-regional and tribal politicians. All of a sudden Nigeria takes secondary precedent to their various regional claims to the Presidency in 2007. It is no longer a Nigerian President in 2007, but rather an Igbo, Northern or Niger Delta President.

The US should respect the current political arrangement in Nigeria and continue to give constructive support for the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. A democratic, tolerant, liberal and successful Nigerian is in the interest of both nations. Whatever Nigerians decide to do with their constitution should be up to Nigerians in the final analysis. Overt US interference in the 2007 transition could lead to a backlash detrimental to US-Nigeria relations. We would not want that now, would we? The US needs good and reliable friends in a world increasingly hostile to US interests. The US will find no greater and reliable friend in Africa than Nigeria. Threatening political and economic sanctions and counselling on the possible consequences of a third term, e.g., military coup or civil war is, in my view, over the top. Such emotive language is unnecessarily provocative. What I would like to see the US do is make statements to the effect that the US will not have any political, economic or diplomatic relations with any future military government in Nigeria and that any attempt at the balkanization of Nigeria will not be supported by the United States.

It has been said that Mr. President should declare his stand on the rumoured Third Term plan. That he should quash the Third Term rumour once and for all. In my humble view such a declaration is unnecessary as Mr. President has said he has no intention of breaching the constitution and would like to retire to Ota Farm in 2007. That is enough for now. In my view the Constitutional Review and the pro and anti Third Term lobby should continue their work. All will be revealed, in good time. In the end a liberal and tolerant democracy will be consolidated in Nigeria, for the benefit of the suffering majority. US-Nigerian relations will undergo some minor strains but by 2007 the relationship will be stronger than ever. The US must remember that Presidential elections always highlight our most basic instincts in Nigeria. No one should get too excited at this stage. Whatever happens in 2007, there will be no coup and there will be no civil war. We have moved on.