Atiku, MRDD And Post-Obasanjo PDP

Zayyad I. Muhammad

The path to post-Obasanjo Nigeria’s political scene would be interesting, thrilling, amusing and all-revealing, beginning from this New Year 2006 interesting episodes would start to unfold, opening the road to post-Obasanjo Nigeria, one of such chapter would be centered around the trio of Atiku, MRDD and Obasanjo’s PDP, most political events in Nigeria happens bit-by-bit, but the one pertaining to the afore mentioned trio would be systemic, meaning there would be correlation between Atiku’s next move to what would happen in PDP, and at the same time MRDD’s next step. Would the battle be a dirt-free? Such as the ANC–Zulu Inkatha in South Africa, the Kenyan Banana and Orange or the US Republican and Democrat or are we to witness a Dog-Eat-Dog picture? The PDP is armed with politics of vendetta; the MRDD would capitalize on public outrage and a face of a new party, while to Atiku’s plus is growing popularity and sympathy from Nigerians.

The recent storming of INEC headquarters by a nine–man MRDD chieftains comprising the interim chairman of the movement Alhaji Muhammadu Gambo–jimeta, former PDP chairman chief Audu Ogbeh, former speaker Ghali Umar Na’abba, chief Duben Onyi, former minister of power and steel Alh. Bashir Dalhatu, former minister of health Prince Funke Adedoyi, Bolaji Khaleel, Lai Mohammed and MM Abdul, is one of many political actions on the cards of the movement, there is growing expectations that the hottest opposition the PDP will face would come from MRDD, which many observers see the group as an underline to Atiku’s statement during his August 22, 2005 interview with THISDAY, that since he joined politics some twenty years ago, if there is anything he knows how to do well is organizing, managing and setting up political parties. Already the PDP had described the MRDD as enemies of democracy describing them in derision, while other people are quick to describe the MRDD as nothing but a photocopy of PDP whose promises does not go beyond their throats, though others are of the believe the abrupt nation wide recognition and media attention the Movement is receiving is a sign of endorsement as an alternative to the ruling PDP. The MRDD has a critical obstacle to cross, getting INEC registration and her leaders escaping Obasanjo’s ‘long cane’ -the EFCC. The seeking of registration as a political party by the MRDD would serve as the momentous challenge to INEC independence prior to the much-talked 2007, and also a litmus test to sections 221 –223 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic Of Nigeria.

The true face of Post-Obasanjo PDP would start to surface but slowly, as the direction of the party is captained by exclusion rather than invitations. Obasanjo political fortunes invested in the present PDP will short-lived because it was based on the idea of building political dynasty and exerting political influence through proxy- a great deal of reliance on individuals rather than a group; individuals who are only desperate to establish their clout in their states of origin and have relevance in any political space regardless of how tiny the breathing space may be in the system; this was the same style used by Abacha, but it proved fruitless at the long-run , as seen today many politicians that were major players during Abacha’s time have openly denied him. Though Obasanjo is absolutely in charge of the PDP but as it is being said nothing is sure in politics and with his style of relying on individual who have only use that opportunity-the so-called ling-men, to build their own political base in their various states, which at the end of the day would make Obasanjo politically barren.

As the so-called the third term bid is witnessing colossal setbacks and nation wide disapproval, it seem Obasanjo is caught in the historical succession crisis that had bewildered many regime in Nigeria. The PDP and Obasanjo would be limping between two posts, the third term quest and the search for a successor. But, since it seems the third term ship is perpetually stranded, much weight would given to the succession option, and the search priority will be to have Some One that can appeal to the rest of the country apart from his political constituency, Some One that would guarantee smooth exit for Obasanjo, promise assurance of no witch-hunting, i.e. post-power unhindered life, preservation of legacy, and a guarantee that Obasanjo would have a political space to dwell in, in post power life, especially in the south west and in the center, ironically Obasanjo’s vice, who Obasanjo is generally believed to be indisposed to handing-over to, is the square spec that will perfectly fix into the square hole; with his secular and detribalized posture, Atiku will appeal to people outside his constituency, being part of the Obasanjo administration the tendency for him to back- slashed the administration after its exit is not likely and Atiku being a politician who would want to have an all-inclusive support, the probability of Obasanjo having a political space after his exit in an Atiku government is likely. Though some people are quick to point out that, Obasanjo would be greatly incline to handing over to one of his ‘boys’ but observers are of the opinion, these are people that at the slightest opportunity jump camp or they can be difficult to handle when mantle of power is in their hands, Obasanjo would not be at ease with them, with the massive tossing on many people toes, he need a politician who may not play a zero-sum game to hide on his back. Though in politics nothing is perfect, Atiku would be at the center of all political hide and seek that would be emanating from the MRDD and PDP; Atiku is today left with two option which are very important for him; his political career and his presidential ambition, his adversaries say he is excessively ambitious and too desperate to be president, his supporters say if it is so, he would have been the number one supporter of third term which he could be the second beneficiary, for four more years as vice president and a sure and an ideal way to ascend the office of the president, nevertheless 2006 will offer Nigerians eye-catching thrillers an intertwine between MRDD,PDP and Atiku. MRDD would try to be smatter by capitalizing on PDP’s slip-ups, the PDP would continue on their cubing of Atiku to the last pose, however, the last man on the queue may be holding the keys to doors.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Nigeria

zaymohd@yahoo.com