Nigeria: Is Two-Party
System Best?
By
Habu Dauda Fika
webmaster@AmanaOnline.com
Nearly all elections are based
on the 'winner-take-all' principle. Voters for the candidate
who receives the most votes win representation; voters for
the other candidates win nothing. In a multi party system,
this is unjust and unnecessary. It is unjust because in many
cases it leaves the majorities without representation. It is
unnecessary because we have immediate opportunities, at
local, state, and national levels, to join the majority of
mature democracies that have already adopted systems of
proportional representation.
The "cornerstone of
democracy is a fair and periodic election" (by
the way, do not mention this fact to Obasanjo or his
houseboy from plateau!). The voting procedure used to
elect candidates, will determine to a crucial degree,
whether elections are considered fair and their outcomes
legitimate. The question that must be asked today is how
votes in a Nigerian election are aggregated and how a
winner is determined. It is easy to concede that no one
has all the right answers on how best to conduct the
freest and fairest election.
There are, undoubtedly,
several ways to elect public officials, and in a
Multi-party system, the voters are more likely to be happy
with the choice of candidates, because they are more
likely to find a candidate that is close to their own
position. Unfortunately, most of the voters are less
likely to be happy with the result of the election,
because it will not necessarily choose the best candidate.
The situation is made even worse when there are many good
candidates.
Therefore in a multi-party
system, each voter will vote for a candidate with opinions
close to his or her own, and the candidate who gets the
most vote will be the one with the broadest constituency,
not the one who represents the will of all or most of the
voters. So it is relatively easy for a very bad candidate
to win. As was the case in France (Presidential election
of Sunday April 21, 2002.)
There is ample evidence to
indicate that a Multi-party system, although good for some
elections, is not the panacea that is desired in all elec
tions. Again, the situation in Nigeria is made even worse,
when you consider the fact that most politicians in
Nigeria are determined to create, as many political
parties as they can come up with names for, rather than
focus on creating a system that will produce the best
candidate for our electorate and our nation.
At least we know from the
United States that in a two party system, if the
candidates are flexible, then either aspirant can win
votes by moving towards the ‘best position’. A candidate
in the best position is unbeatable (without ‘electoral
colleges’ of course). He or she will also make the best
job of making the voters happy, or at least making them
less unhappy than they would be otherwise. The most
elect-able position is the position that makes the fewest
voters very unhappy. This is the best result that any
system can produce.
It is in our best interest
to seriously consider using a ‘Two-Party’ system. Although
all systems are imperfect, including the two-party system,
but for all its problems, the two-party democracy does a
good job of producing and selecting candidates that
represent an acceptable compromise between a wide spectrum
of opinions. "If the process is working well, then by the
time the election is held, many voters may feel that they
have very little real choice. This may seem like a
failure, but actually it is a sign of success. It means
that the system has produced candidates that represent the
most acceptable compromise of the conflicting opinions of
the voters. If this process were to work perfectly, the
results of the election will be a tie." Judging from the
recent results of the American presidential elections of
November 2000 and 2004, democracy is working well.
Suppose we end up with three
presidential candidates in the 2007 elections, and suppose
again that one candidate receives 40% of the popular vote
and the other two receive 30% each. Then it is easy to see
how a minority candidate will win the election when a
whopping 60% of electorate did not even vote for him. So
how do we correct these problems that may burden our
planned forthcoming elections? Well, there is ample time
for INEC to re-engineer the election procedures for the
offices to be contested next year. Also we know that party
registration for the 2007 elections must go on,
nevertheless, the threshold for these new parties as well
as the old ones must be designed in such a way that only
the two strongest parties will survive.
“The two best-known and
most commonly used voting procedures in the United States
restrict voters to voting for only one candidate,
regardless of how many run. They are (1) plurality
voting (the candidate with the most votes wins) and
(2) plurality voting with a runoff (the two
candidates with the most votes are paired against each
other in a second, or runoff, election; the candidate with
the most votes in the runoff election wins). Runoff
elections are held only if the winner in the first
election does not receive a majority--or some other
designated percentage, such as 50 percent--of the total
votes.” (WHR 1982)
It is already certain in
Nigeria today that a group of like-minded voters can
easily win representation in the national assembly through
the use of the proportional representation mechanism now
in pl ace for the election of House members and Senators.
No change need be contemplated. We must however,
re-examine the process currently in place for electing the
president. The constitution is a living document which is
always subject to change, all that remains is the efforts
of a few honest and diligent brokers, who have the
interest of our nation at heart, to affect the necessary
dialogue for change and ultimately we could all
participate in designing a more workable framework. First
thing first, the president must be the choice of the
majority of the voters, the debate on term limits
notwithstanding.
The current framework cannot
produce that candidate who is the choice of the majority
of the voters. Do not forget that in 1999, the APP and AD
parties jointly fielded one candidate when they could have
each fielded their own. The
reason was simple; they would have nullified each other’s
votes thereby handing easy victory to the PDP. Again in
2003, the minority candidate - Obasanjo, counting the real
votes dropped, won. It is therefore worth considering how
a two-party system will work better for us. If we are
doomed to copy the system that works well elsewhere, then
let us be honest and copy all the parts, especially those
particular parts that work well within the system. If the
French, who have been at it longer than us, can make the
disastrous mistake of fielding three candidates with
unwanted repercussions, then let us save ourselves
the heartaches.
The problem is compounded
even further with this idea of open balloting. Today in
Nigeria, our ‘leaders’ are determined to make the ‘most’
voters very unhappy and still think that they are
unbeatable at the polls because they have managed to
complicate a system that forces the voters to vote in the
open or not vote at all. You cannot just line us up like
they do cattle in a market for sale. Our votes are not for
sale. We deserve the dignity to cast our votes in secret.
Who ever suggested that open balloting is a remedy against
fraud is the one who is committing the fraud on us.
Surely, it is not too late
to re-examine the sanctified idea of a free and fair
election. When we line people up according their voting
preference, we have summarily thrown away the ‘free’
guarantee of the election. We have deliberately made it
too costly. It is too costly for most voters because it
could cost them their jobs/livelihood, their f riends and
neighbors, their spouses, and their allegiances to the
community in which they live. This cost is so great that
most voters prefer not to vote at all. And when we line up
voters according to preferences, then there is nothing
‘fair’ about the election since the voters willing to show
their votes in public are those who know that the reward
for so doing is greater than all the costs combined. We
are essentially broadcasting to all the candidates that
you must make it worth the voters while in order for them
to come out and vote, thereby ensuring that only the rich
can contest the elections. What this system has
effectively done is equivalent to placing husbands against
wives, sons against fathers, kings against subjects, rich
against poor, illiterate against literate, Hausa against
Yoruba, Igbo against Fulani, Tiv against Idoma and so on.
We are tired of being made to stand opposed to each other
for the pleasure of a few.
And then to add insult to
injury, after we are forced to stand opposed, we are then
inundated with a dizzying choice of candidates, which
ultimately results in dividing our votes along regional
lines. And back to square one we go. We must all demand
the right to vote in secret. All excuses not withstanding,
if we can do it in 1979, then we ought to be able to do it
even better in 2007.
The choices are very clear,
we could either resolve to correct the inequities in the
system as is the case today, or we could continue on this
deceptive path of non-free, unequal, and unfair election
process that is replete with violence and fraud. The
choice is ours!
Habu Dauda Fika writes from
Washington DC