Obasanjo: The Successor He NeedsBy Zayyad I. Muhammad Traditionally, world over, it is natural departing leaders nurturing the desire to have a successor of their hope, and this is motivated by lots of rationales: in a democratically cultured society the reason is to save legacy, policies and help one’s political party to remain in power; while in the rest of the world especially third world nations and countries whose leaders have stayed so long in power and have committed great lot of atrocities and have tossed on so many toes, the desire to save one’s head is the most important reason that make the departing leaders to bend towards choosing someone as a heir , but so often, a lot of past leaders have committed big error that ended them choosing the wrong person as their heir, or denying the right person the opportunity to succeed them. In Indonesia, former president Suharto did all he could, using the GOLKAR party to make sure he had a successor of his preferred choice; he had served six terms as president, each with different vice-president, in order not to let any person to be more popular than him, when Megawati Sukarnoputri of the opposition PDI was getting popular, Suharto conspired to removed her as president of her party, but in the long run, Megawati became the president of Indonesia, Suharto did not achieved his aspiration. Daniel arap Moi of Kenya prevented his deputy Mwai Kibaki from getting the ruling party ticket but kibaki eventually won the election on the platform of the Rainbow Coalition, Jerry Rawlings of Ghana fought his deputy John Ankarr to the extend of physical combat, Rawlings replaced Ankarr with Jonh Atta Mills, this denied Rawling’s party the NPC, victory; John Kuffor of the opposition NPP won the elections, Fredrick Chiluba of Zambia amended his country’s constitution in order to stop citizens with foreign parentage from standing for the presidency, this was aimed at disqualifying, former president Kenneth kaunda, Despite Chiluba’s party overwhelming majority in parliament, Chiluba failed to win support in his bid to amend the constitution allowing him to run for a third term, but succeeded in installing his choice, Levy Mwanawasa, but it couldn’t save him, he is today facing charges in his country, Nelson Mandela of South Africa, step down for his vice, he got a rapturous ovation from the world, we can go on to give many example of past world leaders who try to installed people of there choice or prevented others; but it boomerangs. Manipulation of successor is so pervasive in Africa; this is because African leaders are so troubled about what awaits them in post power life, knowing the kind of power they accrued to themselves as Heads. Several people employed scores of techniques in trying to achieve a particular wish, especially political goals. As Obasanjo’s administration is approaching it tail-end and the so-called third term campaign seem not attracting prominent and distinguished Nigerians, nor appealing to ordinary Nigerians, and the National Assembly appears to have succumbed to pressure to abandon the course, president Obasanjo most be preoccupied with the intricate and painstaking craft of choosing a successor; it is a complicated and pain staking job because any error can lead to opening a post power Pandora’s box. Many criteria for choosing a successor most be on president Obasanjo’s cards, and his political think thank most be immersed in the political calculus of smooth exit and unhindered post power life; there is a minute school of thought that the third term issue has twofold plan; first to seek for elongation of term, but if it failed, the second phase is, using it to secure a smooth exit and lend a hand to ‘a confident’ to ascend to the presidency; and president Obasanjo most be meditating with three things which are of utmost important for post power life: 1-political space to dwell in. 2- preservation of legacies and policies .3- the individual who will guarantee these. The third is the most critical and the one that requires great thinking, political iterations and taking a difficult, thorny but crucial decision. After serving for eight years as a democratic president, Obasanjo need a political space to dwell in, after leaving office, especially in the south-west and of course in the center, however, this is not so much important, being a president of Nigeria guarantees one political relevance in the Nigerian polity; Obasanjo may not give so much weight to it, but owing the current absent of a political figure in the south west, Obasanjo will not cast a blind eye on taking that opportunity to occupy the vacant. Human being rationally want to be remembered on a particular aspect of life, especially that of a nation, Obasanjo would desperately want to see a continuation of his policies and preservation of some of his good legacies, retention of key members of his cabinet and of course the critical post power good image- Obasanjo would not want to see the usually manner new government in Nigeria portrays the previous government, being inflicted on his administration after leaving office. Who is the individual that would guarantees to Obasanjo these critical items? Is it Buhari, IBB, Orji Kalu; is it Atiku or just someone out of the blue? The first criteria is to look for someone that will appeal to rest of the country apart from his immediate constituency- a detribalized, secular and someone with democratic credentials who’s political tentacles is spread nation wide; surprisingly and ironically Atiku who is generally believed, that Obasanjo is indisposed to handing over to, has a big plus here. But his adversaries are quick to point that Atiku is disloyal to Obasanjo but his supporters say, he is the most loyal person to Obasanjo; having foiled a great security breach that would have earned him the presidency, and in 2003 he refused to succumbed to pressure to dump President Obasanjo, despite having all odds in his favor. Obasanjo having tested the sweetness of politics as the leader of his party, would need to have a state in any government after his, but can an Atiku government assures Obasanjo a breathing space in the polity; Atiku’s opponent are of the opinion of, the likelihood of that is minimal, Atiku being part of the PDP will exhibit the bulldozer character of the PDP, but his supporters and onlookers are quick to stress that, the current face of the PDP is not the original foundation of the party which Atiku is among the founding fathers, and he once exhibited a sterling sportsmanship politics when late MKO breached their gentleman agreement to picked Atiku as his running mate, but Atiku doggedly supported MKO. His adversaries are swift to say, Atiku being a among the current crop of politicians, would be power thirsty, but his supporters say Atiku is the only prominent politician in Nigeria that had never served in any military regime.
Any government taking over from Obasanjo would try to call off Obasanjo’s policies, do away with members of his administration, and backslash the government to gain some effortless popularity from Nigerians, as Nigerians are a kind of people that always welcome change, however bad it would be, But can an Atiku government be different from all other governments in Nigeria regarding their predecessors, would Atiku safeguard some good policies, legacies, and portrays Obasanjo administration in good light? The answer is anybody’s guess, because any mistreatment of Obasanjo is a trial on Atiku. But what can Obasanjo do to this irony, or indeed a ‘quirk of fate’? - Stuck connecting him to this man Atiku a propos to succession. It is the opinion of this writer that the two men should sort things out; president Obasanjo should look and act beyond the bootlickers surrounding him, people that push him to discarding his democratic principles that earned him a global statesmanship, his nationalistic posture that make others to cherished him when his people deserted him; balance things with his vice, because with an Atiku government, Obasanjo can put his feet up in his Otta farm at ease, though Nigerians will accept nothing short of free and fair elections in 2007.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta |