Where President Mbeki leads

Where President Mbeki leads…

Crispin Oduobuk

Word out of South Africa this week has given optimists in this country cause to nod with approval. This is on account of the South African leader's forthright declaration that he has no interest in a third term as his country's president when his current term runs out in 2009. Perhaps in the light of the trite third term drama Nigerians are being subjected to at this time, nothing else from abroad could resonate more than President Thabo Mbeki's good news.

Just as it did here, the South African third term bug (which President Mbeki has effectively squashed!) sprang from the usual despondent logic that sees the incumbent leader of a country as indispensable, or 'The Only One' that can do such and such ("keep the country together," "move the economy forward," "fight corruption!"). In SA, the South African National Civic Organization, or Sanco as it is colloquially called there, took on the nefarious role of third term campaigners by urging a change in the country's constitution to allow President Mbeki continue beyond the 2009 endpoint of his second term.

A decisive "I'm not interested" is all it takes

President Mbeki himself--no go-betweens, no press releases--spoke up right away. In an interview with the South African Broadcasting Corporation this past Sunday, the 5 ^th of February 2006, President Mbeki said, "By the end of 2009, I will have been in a senior position in government for 15 years, and I think that is too long. After 15 years, I think one should really step aside." What could be clearer than that? No hedging. No attempts at being clever by half ("I'll uphold the Constitution"--when everybody knows the Constitution can be changed, especially with Nigeria being 'Nigeria'). Just a good old, straightforward declaration that knocks the breath out of all third term campaigners.

Hear Sanco president Mlungisi Hlongwane trying to rally the day after President Mbeki's statement: "It is co-incidental that we proposed these constitutional amendments to be discussed while Thabo Mbeki is president," he said, adding, "We value the contribution he has made and it is within our school of thought that we feel our Constitution is likely to deny us one of the best brains we have." If President Mbeki's position can be given any interpretation in this light, it is simply: "Thanks but no thanks; there are others that can carry on perfectly well without me."

A good leader must allow new leaders to emerge

Indeed, President Mbeki did say: "I think whoever takes over leadership must be given space to do their own thing," which indicates that he knows full well he is not indispensable, and that a time must come when he, like Nelson Mandela before him, must truly step aside for someone else to take charge. While this may be the kind of politically-correct thing a politician says to sound statesmanlike and accommodating of upcoming leadership talent, whatever the gambit may be, the South African president has placed himself on record now and the world would judge him by what he does when the time comes.

It is this business of time that is often at the heart of the sit-tight attitude of many African leaders. Many feel they've not had enough time (President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe--three decades in power--is an example); never mind that their opponents often cry that they've had too much time; the leaders often say they need more time so that they, who typically see themselves as the only wise and capable ones around, can fix this and that (President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda); forgetting that after a while, rather than being a part of the solution, they become a part of the problem if not the major problem. Also, because sit-tight leaders characteristically feel a need to suppress all opposition--some of who may be potential leaders themselves--they inevitably destroy or fail to nurture prospective leaders.

Moreover, sit-tight leaders neither create strong transitional mechanisms to allow their states survive their exit or demise intact (Congo, Ivory Coast), nor do they build capable institutions that would guarantee the rule of law. Instead, to perpetuate the idea of their being 'The Only One', these sit-tight leaders usually grow or encourage a personality cult of one. It is this sort of destructive craze, which carries with it all the negative forces that can be imagined--oppression of civil rights, corruption, promotion of mediocrity and retrogressive insularity--that has largely been responsible for Africa's backwardness. As such, it is praiseworthy that President Mbeki is distancing himself from that trend and further instilling in the continental consciousness that, apart from being Africa's economic leader, SA also leads in the all-important area of political leadership transition.

A deceptive or an unclear attitude is diminishing

These are the footsteps President Olusegun Obasanjo should humbly follow, not the muddy, tenure-extending ones of Uganda's President Museveni. Of course, they are those that would argue, as they often do, that President Obasanjo cannot learn any lessons from anyone as he has seen it all and done it all. Maybe so. But, not too long ago, in an interview with Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, the president's irrepressible spokesman, your correspondent sought to obtain a statement of good faith to the effect that, regardless of what happens--that is, whether the Constitution is amended or not--President Obasanjo will leave office in 2007. Chief Fani-Kayode vehemently declined to make such a statement and to this date, President Obasanjo himself has not made one either. Indeed, the president's "I'll uphold the Constitution" line is partly responsible for the disquiet in the country over the third term project.

Meanwhile, A. B. Ahmed, author of the Wednesday column 'Soliloquy' in Daily Trust , has consistently dismissed the idea of a plot to finagle a third term for President Obasanjo. According to him, President Obasanjo has no intention to seek a third term because all the hoopla we're hearing is just a ploy to make sure the president finishes his tenure on a strong footing with his political stature intact and not diminished by the lame-duck reality which will dog him once Nigerians know for certain that he'll be going in 2007. This may well be true. But there is a level of organisation and expenditure on the third term agenda which indicates that even if President Obasanjo himself is not interested in having an extra term, some well-funded and very determined others are so interested on his behalf.

If the above scenario is the true situation of the matter, then President Obasanjo, by not clearly disassociating himself from the third term project as President Mbeki has done, is already diminished in stature, not only before this country, but also before his African peers like President Mbeki, and the entire African continent.