Dangers of Third Term: Lessons from a
Neighbour
President
Obasanjo's third term ambition has finally emerged in the open. The
support for third term by PDP officials and 29 governors, and the
attempt to change the constitution through sham public hearings have all
confirmed the long-held view that Obasanjo is preparing
Nigeria
for a dictatorship. However, despite government threats and the arrests
of several political activists, Nigerians have publicly expressed their
total rejection of any extension of tenure of the president and state
governors. Thus, the battle line has been drawn between the government
on the one hand and Nigerian citizens on the other. Yet, if we Nigerians
are willing to cast aside our political and ethnic differences and unite
for the common good of defending our motherland from a bunch of
hooligans who go by the name of leaders, we can win the forthcoming
battle and thereby lay the foundation for a lasting democracy that would
rival those of many European countries.
For
those who still harbour doubts about Obasanjo's intentions and its
consequences for Nigeria, I hereby quote John Negroponte, United States
Director of National Intelligence, who recently stated that
"...speculation that President Obasanjo will try to change the
constitution so he can seek a third term in office is raising political
tensions and, if proven true, threatens to unleash major turmoil and
conflict. Such chaos in
Nigeria could lead to
…refugee flows and instability elsewhere in
West Africa". Mr. Negroponte's
assessment may be incorrect – considering the failure of the
US intelligence
community to foresee the present chaos in post war
Iraq or
to prevent the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks despite warning from
other intelligence agencies. For this reason, I suggest that we learn
lessons from a West African neighbor,
Cote d'Ivoire – a
nation once touted as the model for
West Africa but is now a classic case
of a failed African state engulfed in civil war – all thanks to the
folly of its politicians.
Cote
d'Ivoire
is a country populated mainly by the Muslim Dioulas and Senoufos of the
North and the Akan-speaking Christians of the South (reproduced from
African Business Magaz ine, January 2006). Felix
Houphouet-Boigny, a southerner, ruled the country from 1960 to 1993,
with Alassane Outtara a northerner, later appointed as prime minister.
Henri Konan Bedie, the parliamentary speaker succeeded late
Houphouet-Boigny in 1993 but the following year, Bedie's government
passed article 35, a law under which citizens who could not prove
that both their parents were Ivorian should not contest or vote in
elections. Opposition candidates boycotted the vote and Bedie won
the presidential elections.
In 2000,
Alassane Outtara challenged Bedie, but the government claimed that
Outtara was a national of
Burkina Faso and not
Cote d'Ivoire,
and the country was effectively split into two. Bedie was overthrown in
a military coup led by General Robert Guei, who held an election after
declaring his candidature. Laurent Gbagbo challenged Guei but Outtara
was again prevented from contesting. Following an election marred by
rigging, General Guei declared himself winner but popular uprising
forced him to flee and Gbagbo was sworn-in as president. From that point
on,
Cote d'Ivoire
degenerated into a spiral of violence. In 2002, the army mutinied and
outright civil war erupted. A breakaway group known as the New Forces
led by Guillaume Soro took complete control of the North. Despite
several mediation attempts, it was only when the government abolished
article 35 that a ceasefire took place. Even then, ten thousand UN
and French troops remain in the country to keep peace. In December 2005,
Charles Konan Banny was nominated as prime minister and given the
mandate to organize elections. On the economic front, the country that
was once the superpower of Francophone West Africa saw its fortunes
dwindling daily. Since the start of the crises, the World Bank, the IMF
and the African Development Bank all suspended credit facilities to the
country. Production of the main export earnings – cocoa, palm oil and
timber - fell drastically.
Abidjan port became a ghost of its past
as Malian and Bourkinabe imports (and import duties) were diverted to
Cotonou and
Lome. As a result,
Cote d'Ivoire's
GDP fell from 4.6% annually before the war, to – 2.1 % in 2002 and –
2.3% in 2003.
What lessons
can we learn from
Cote d'Ivoire?
First, civil war is a real possibility in any democracy where
politicians pass laws to suit their purposes, rather than for national
interests. Whether such laws prolong tenures or prevent opponents from
contesting, the net effect is the same: disenfranchisement of a group of
people. While some of the disenfranchised will only grumble or shout,
others will simply take up arms to fight for their right. As the saying
goes, political change comes either through the ballot or through the
barrel. It happened in
Cote d'Ivoire and
elsewhere and it can happen in
Nigeria,
whether we wish it or not.
Second,
dictatorships may seem alluring to politicians and their supporters.
However, as responsible citizens we should beware of joining the
bandwagon, for we may be lending our voice to future disintegration of
our country. The experience of
Cote d'Ivoire
and other countries has made this very clear. Thus, the Soviet Union
disintegrated after the collapse of its communist dictatorship; civil
war and anarchy resulted in the DR Congo after the overthrow of Mobutu;
and ethnic nationalism, genocide, and war finally laid to rest the
nation once known as
Yugoslavia,
following the death of dictator General Tito. In
Cote
d'Ivoire,
civil war probably would not have resulted had Houphouet-Boigny allowed
free and fair elections during his 33-year reign. Instead, his death
created a political vacuum that Ivorian politicians were not equipped to
manage, and the political immaturity of his successors ultimately led to
civil war. For the same reason, if we
Nigerians
should accept the stupid proposal of Governor Bukar Abba of Yobe state
that politicians should hold office for life, we may as well bury our
national
flag and give up our seat at the United
Nations, for as sure as the day always turns into night,
Nigeria
will cease to exist within a few years, if not months of accepting the
proposal of the demented governor.
But the third
and most important lesson to learn from
Cote d'Ivoire and
elsewhere is that determined citizens of any country could overthrow
illegal governments, as happened to the communist regimes of
Romania and
Czechoslovakia in
1989, to Robert Guei in
Cote d'Ivoire in 2000 and to Victor
Yanukovych in
Ukraine
in 2005.
How then do we
actualize our resistance to third term? First, every
Nigerian
with access to diplomatic circles should impress on European Union
diplomats how their conspiracy of silence on the issue of third term is
sending the wrong signals to Obasanjo and his supporters. The EU,
Japan and
Canada should take
the same stand as the
US has done, so that Obasanjo will have
to defy the entire G7 group of nations - a risk that very few countries
can take, and certainly not
Nigeria,
with our near-complete dependence on foreign goods and services for
economic survival.
Secondly, we
should remind our elected politicians at every opportunity that whether
they like it or not, those who serve two terms are leaving office on May
29, 2007. If they won't go peacefully, they will be helped out
forcefully.
Nigeria
belongs to everyone of us and neither Obasanjo nor Ibrahim Mantu
posseses more rights to be Nigeria's president or deputy sen ate
president than does a fisherman living on the shores of the Kainji lake
or his counterpart living on the banks of the Bonny estuary. We remember
how
Obasanjo himself resisted the regimes
of both Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abatcha. He defied Babangida
by organizing a conference in Otta following the political impasse
caused by the June 12 elections and he defied Abatcha when he met with
government opponents allegedly plotting to overthrow Abatcha's
government, for which he was subsequently tried and jailed. If Obasanjo
can defy two military regimes and survive, he cannot claim any moral
right to persecute
Nigerians
who rise up in defence of democracy in a civilian administration. In
short, we not only should defy Obasanjo, but if necessary, we should
physically chase him out of Aso Rock and live to celebrate the
anniversary on May 29, 2008.
Thirdly, if the
government remains aloof to people's wishes and continues ahead with its
plans for third term, then I suggest daily mass demonstrations beginning
from June 2006, after the planned PDP convention when the government's
intentions would have become clear. This should be followed by sit-ins
and strikes by both public and private sector workers all across the
country, from Gashua and Kazaure in the North to Badagry and Sapele in
the South. This method has worked elsewhere and it will certainly work
in
Nigeria.
Finally,
Nigerians should not fear the threat of the use of force against
political activists made by information minister Frank Nweke Jr., for
this is nothing but a sure sign of desperation on the part of the
government. Still, should the government order soldiers and policemen to
kill defenceless civilians as they did in the past in Zakibiyam and Odi,
Nigerians should ensure that whoever is responsible for anyone’s death
should pay with his own life, from the president himself to the lowliest
corporal who pulls the trigger. If the government thinks this is a joke,
Bulgarian dictator Nicolae Ceasescu thought so too, until his death by
firing squad following his trial for crimes against the people in the
aftermath of the 1989 revolution.
In short, it is
in our power, and now is the time for us Nigerians to either support
third term and lay the foundation for the break-up of our country, or to
rise up in defence of democracy and thereby establish a lasting nation
and a flourishing economy for generations to come. There is no middle
ground.
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