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The Nigerian Political Scenario and Future of PDP By A. Mohammed Bashir Shuwa abashirshuwa@yahoo.com
If recent events are anything to go by all the three political parties in Nigeria that have formed government at one level or the other since 1999 till date are gradually heading for the rocks and the biggest casualty being the Peoples Democratic Party PDP. Most political observers are aware that PDP as a party is divided against itself and this division within has caused a lot of suspicion in its ranks which saw to the gradual withdrawal of its foundation members from the party. Apart from its members who opted out it has also elected office holders who are holding on to see to how events of the third term plot will turn out before taking their final decision. Though PDP may boast of being the party of government what it currently failed to realise is that in a democracy government is formed by the people and when people begin to desert the party enmasse it will certainly fail to win and become the next party of government. Political observers in Nigeria are of the opinion that it is difficult to defeat a party that controls government machinery and it is on the basis of this assumption that the current leadership of the PDP is trying to coarce its members to accept its third term agenda by promising automatic ticket to national assembly members who support the bid. But as of now Nigerians pretty well know that even with the control of government and its machineries the PDP is vulnerable and certainly will not win election without the support of some key Nigerian figures who have been instrumental to its previous electoral successes. If things go on as they are now over the third term then the country will witness the emergence of new political realignments that will come up within a short time and with a big avalanche of supporters from all across Nigeria and they will chase the PDP out of power for good. Any observer of the Nigerian political terrain is aware that the citizens are disenchanted and have lost confidence in the present set of political office holders in the PDP who have nothing to show other than the widening of the gap between the haves and have nots. From Maiduguri to Uyo, Sokoto to Lagos and traverse any part of Nigeria the people are eagerly waiting for the D-Day, the day when they will exercise their franchise. The price for freedom according to political thinkers is perpetual vigilance and the Nigerian people are vigilant and know all the means that were used by corrupt politicians to steal their mandate and so will come out enmasse to vote and safegauard their vote at all levels from ward, local government and the national level when the time for the next election comes. If the example of Kano state in the last general elections is anything to go by then it is easy to debunk the claim that it is not possible to defeat the party in power. With all its Federal might and state government control the PDP was swept out of power in the state. Similar scenario is expected to be replicated in the following states in the next election Niger, Kogi, Kwara, Kaduna, Borno, Akwa Ibom , Yobe, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa, Abia, Taraba, Benue, Plateau,Bauchi,Imo, Anambra, Ebonyi, Delta , Edo, Sokoto and Lagos states will hopefully tow the line of Kano and change the shape of politics in the next election. Though some of these states are currently not controlled by the PDP they have succeeded in annexing their governors into their fold hence their support for third term which has pitched them against their electorates. Since the governors in some of these states have betrayed their people by supporting third term they have lost the trust of their people and so they too will fade with the PDP. The Nigerian public is politically active and enlightened and also have respect for their opinion leaders. You speak to most opinion leaders in Nigeria about the ruling party and all you hear is regrets. However once again their time has come with an election in sight and this time they have vowed not to be fooled. Nigerians will work in unison to sound a resounding No! to the usurpation of power by the ruling party the PDP through its unpopular third term manipulation. Third term will therefore wreck PDP and make it a mere tribal party and expose its leaders for what they are.When those who are opposed to third term finally leave the party PDP will likely take the shape of what will appear to be like the rebirth of the old UPN with its leader and support coming from the South West. One agenda that is gaining ground in Nigeria now is the agenda to unseat the PDP if it succeeds with the third term plot and more and more politicians from diverse interests are coming together on that platform which provides room for alliances and so we can witness the merging of some registered parties to pursue a common objective. Political activists who fought against previous regimes with similar intention are still active and have keen interest in their polity and how they are governed. They usually do not rely on radio or television campaign because they dont trust the broadcast media. So a word of mouth from their local religious leader or community leader serves the purpose of passing the message on who is to be supported. As long as mobilisation is concerned it just takes such word of mouth to be passed and you see the people coming out and showing themselve to be counted. As long as they show interest and become actively mobilised I see no way the party of government having the chance to change the will of the people and with a massive turnout people will reject the PDP'S third term candidate. As the PDP becomes a tribal party we will witness a situation in which the party it has annexed ( ANPP) going to the gallows. ANPP is dying a natural death because it will lose its support base and a newly emerging party that will coopt some of its principled members will eventually see to its demise. In the next few months the political landscape in Nigeria will be reshaped and politicians from the left and those from the right will find a centre ground to actualise their dream. This dream is the scuttling of the third term plot and the positioning of credible and trusted politicians in the helm of affairs. Though the political fixers in the PDP might assume that they can use force to actualise their project it may not be feasible to turn the security apparatuses against the collective will of the people as those in the security apparatuses also have responsibility and I dont think if they will be willing to be used to destroy their parents, brothers and sisters just to satisfy the aspiration of their candidate. So also is the Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC). Those who conduct the election are Nigerians and I wonder if they can be used to change figures for the ruling party anymore. The credibility of INEC has been at stake based on its dismall conduct in previous elections and it is assumed that a lesson has been learnt from its past mistakes. All the electoral loopholes had been documented and I know that politicians are currently making efforts to avoid future occurance of massive electoral fraud perpetuated by the ruling party. The past experience was only able to succeed because most politicians who then supported the PDP decided to turn a blind eye on such misconduct but now that they are no longer in support I dont think it will work. Another plot of the PDP fixers is likely to focus on total votes cast in the forthcoming election. It is expected that they will come out with millions of votes from the South West for the PDP candidate but that too will be crushed by the turnout from the South East, South South and the North entirely. From whatever angle you look at the forthcoming elections it works against the third term aspiration of the PDP and the political jobbers who are too keen in carrying on with the project and they are only going to succeed in one thing, exposing themselves as politcally irrelevant in Nigeria and have no support base among the people. Those currently spearheading the third term project may hijack the PDP and mislead the President that they will deliver but the fact remains that there is no cutting corners in general elections. Experience has shown that Nigerians cannot be short changed by those who think that they can use the power of incumbency to force their way back to political office. Since the wise counsel of the numerous well meaning Nigerians that advised against the third term is likely to be disregarded and ignored then the only thing that will best suit those agitators is facing electoral defeat which is imminent. Though no one is anticipating a fair playing field but one is optimistic that voters will be vigilant and hence they may safeguard their vote and ensure that only those they truly voted were returned as winners. However it is still not too late for the PDP as a party to be salvaged and that is only possible if the proponents of third term drop their plot and apologise to Nigerians and conduct a free and fair party congress that will see to the emergence of candidates for public offices and party positions or else R.I.P PDP! Abba Mohammed Bashir Shuwa Holbeck Leeds UK |