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In a rare circumstance, President Olusegun Obasanjo has publicly confirmed that Ibrahim B. Babangida (IBB) is innocent of all those “mushroom accusations of corruption and embezzlement of public funds”. In what seemed to be Mr. President’s defense of IBB he confirmed what EFCC Chairman Mr. Ribadu said in early April 2005 that “the government has looked into and with all resources at their disposal to track the alleged funds that IBB stacked away in some foreign banks but was unable to find any”. Addressing the British parliament, the president insisted that IBB is innocent and alive and well.
The allegations you hear about are “coffee shop” and “market place” rumors designed by some people to tarnish the image of our former president Ibrahim Babangida, he said. He challenged Nigerians to come forward with evidence of wrongdoing by IBB. “If anyone has any proof of IBB’s wrong doing while in government to come forward with it.” With this statement one can rightly conclude that President Obasanjo effectively exonerated IBB from all allegations of wrongdoing while in office. And since no one, we publicly know of came forward with credible evidence of wrong doing, IBB is today a citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in good standing, thereby qualifying him to seek for any elective office in Nigeria.
The month of March 2006 marked another beginning in the life of Ibrahim B. Babangida with his declaration to contest for the office of the president of Nigeria. I was fortunate to be in Nigeria at that time and I witnessed the festive moods of many Nigerians and the disappointing posture of some. From market stalls to village bars and executive hotels gatherings the debate was the same – Is Ibrahim Babangida actually going to run for president in 2007? At the time, he seemed to be the missing voice and the critical mass Nigerians have been looking for, as third term craze is swallowing everyone. The “chicken” legislators – those who were afraid to speak out against the third term project- was given a new lease of life. They jumped on the IBB wagon. A few days later everything including the IBB voice quenched as if cold water was poured on a fire. It was later discovered that PDP and Obasanjo’s troops paid IBB a visit and he chickened out of the planned and scheduled public declaration. This single action may have a ripping effect on the credibility of Alhaji Ibrahim Babangida as a serious presidential candidate or as his own man.
In the Southeast, people wanted the so-called Igbo president but are not sure who would best represent their interest. Is it Orji Kalu or Rochas Okorocha? The over whelming argument was that these two men does not have the credible credentials to represent Ndiigbo. Majority of Ndiigbo prefer Anyim Pius Anyim – the former Senate President- but quickly say that he does not have the money to fund a presidential campaign in Nigeria. In one of the popular joints at Owerri, sort of a “market place”, I was surprised to notice that the majority of the patrons were against the way Ndiigbo are canvassing for the office of the president. They were particularly worried that Ndiigbo is more and more coming across as beggars in their quest to hold the office of the president. They suggested that the field should be thrown open to all Nigerians for the best to emerge whether Igbo, Hausa, Yoruba or any other. The generally accepted this line of thought. And it seems today that these group of people are majority across Nigeria and IBB organization are really paying attention and many would believe that this gives IBB the heart to make that March 2006 declaration knowing fully well that Nigerians are more and more becoming de-ethnicized in their endless search for a messiah.
The group is made up of professionals in the banking industry, lecturers, business people and regular folks. I asked them “why Babangida? This guy has so much garbage to be our president,” I said. I mentioned the case of Dele Giwa, June 12, Gloria Okon, $12 billion Oil windfall and so on. They took me on. They really took me on. The majority was of the opinion that Dele Giwa’s death may have come from another source. What source? I asked. Maybe from Abiola MKO, he replied. What do you mean? I pressed further. Remember that Dele Giwa was one the journalist that left Concord Newspaper to start Newswatch. How do we know that Abiola was not angry, especially its effect on the circulation of the National Concord newspaper? He asked. So you think that Abiola or his agents may have a hand in Mr. Giwa’s death? He answered, unequivocally, yes.
On Gloria Okon they thought it was a drug dealing gone bad. They did not understand why a sitting Head of State with so much resource at his disposal would involve himself in a shabby deal like that with Gloria Okon. What about June 12? I asked. Don’t you think that IBB was in charge of the affairs of our country at the time? He should have released the result and let the winner take over. I thought he wanted to elongate his term in office. I couldn’t finish making my point when they shouted me down. I thought his so-called trusted friends deceived him. They are the ones that wanted to elongate his tenure so that they continue to enrich themselves, one of them said. Here, I got so many variations of thoughts. Others thought that it was the British and the Americans who pressured him to cancel the election results because they may not be able to control Abiola, as they would do with another Nigerian.
Since I have engaged them in this debate, I quickly took a political poll. Although, not a scientific poll, but it helped me to understand the thinking of homebound Nigerians. I matched the following persons for a presidential race.
- Chief Olusegun Obasanjo vs. Alhaji Ibrahim Babangida (30% - 70% in favor of IBB) - Chief Olusegun Obasanjo vs. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku (40% - 60% in favor of Atiku) - Alhaji Ibrahim Babangida vs. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku (20% - 80% in favor of Atiku) - Chief Olusegun Obasanjo vs. Chief Orji Uzor Kalu (50% - 50% I was surprised) - Alhaji Abubakar Atiku vs. Chief Orji Uzor Kalu (90% - 10% in favor of Atiku) - Chief Anyim Pius Anyim vs. any of the above (Avg. 60% in favor of Anyim)
Again, this is not a scientific poll, but you can see how Nigerians rate our so-called leaders. It is important to point out here the overwhelming rejection of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. The most surprising of all was scoring Orji Uzor Kalu at 50% with President Obasanjo. It said a lot on how low the president has gone with his policies and this third term project. I was also surprised that Nigerians rated Atiku so high even beating out President Obasanjo, IBB, and Orji Kalu except for Chief Anyim who was head to head with Atiku. The high point of the evening was the doubt that IBB will actually enter the race despite his “declaration of interest”. They think that IBB is afraid of Obasanjo and that he shouldn’t have called off the scheduled public declaration in Minna. That action, they said, made him look much more like a “whimper” than a statesman. And did Atiku and Buhari’s popularity in the North overwhelm him coupled with anything Obasanjo’s camp may have against him, causing him to develop cold feet from making a public statement as to whether he is in or out?
Now enter Atiku. He has effectively changed the landscape of the Nigerian politics for the next general election. Atiku’s tell-it-to-you in your face approach against Obasanjo is very popular in Nigeria today. Atiku has effectively hijacked the polity and citizens of Nigeria in general. Atiku has replaced IBB as the new voice of the people and he has become that elusive critical mass. We all know that Obasanjo’s inferiority complex will push him into actions unbecoming of a president against Atiku. The new and improved Atiku may not be pushed around easily, especially now that he enjoys the enormous popularity among Nigerians around the world.
If IBB is serious in running a presidential campaign in 2007, he better wake up. They are sharing the cake now. This is not a military regime where you do a maradona and a group of generals will meet and appoint you a Head of State. This one is called democracy – government of the people, by the people and for the people. We, the people, choose our leaders.
Where will IBB get the votes to win a general election? A closer look at the map of Nigeria will rattle your brain and you wonder where the votes for IBB would come from. The North-central and Northwest are Buhari country; the Northeast and northern middle belt are Atiku country. In the Southeast, APGA’s victory in Anambra State has re-energized the people, so Southeast may end up being controlled by APGA or ACD. IBB’s votes may not come from the Southwest, because of Abiola issue and Abacha regime, which a greater number of them suffered under the regime. So the battleground has shifted to the South-South and Middle belt. Will IBB monster an enough vote in these two areas to give him a victory in the general elections? We will follow the election results.
However, that IBB declaration may have adverse effect in the Third Term Project by providing those who oppose Obasanjo a safe haven. It may have re-energized his many supporters all over the world, which have been reluctant to organize for fear that IBB, may not after all declare his candidacy to run for the office of the president of Nigeria. But the most important question on the minds of Nigerians about IBB is whether he is serious in seeking for the post of the president, or is he playing a maradona to help his friend Olusegun Obasanjo to achieve his third term agenda?
Okechukwu E. Asia Boston, MA, USA
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