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Nigeria – Hanging On The Precipice Of Greatness By Tope Fasua
Precisely a year ago, I wrote an article titled ‘Nigeria’s natural path to greatness’. The critical points were that change, being the second most constant thing in life (after truth in my humble estimation), was bound to happen to every thing (from the tiniest creature to whole continents to the galaxy at large). In fact it is said that everything born must die, the only difference being the time it takes to complete the process. That write-up of mine was based on a certain frustration of always finding cause to complain bitterly about the contraption called Nigeria within which for some purpose God has deemed me fit to be created. There was also the frequency at which absurdities were happening around, with the level of such absurdity taking on more bizarre twists over time.
I traced three likely paths to Nigeria’s greatness, in spite of itself and in spite of the people who presently inhabit its space. The first path in the hypothesis is that we can allow things to continue the way they are and wait for another 25 years for a class war to break out between the children of the super-rich and the super-poor. The second option is for the Nation to really converge and discuss its problems, for its own sake, in a logical fashion and not sweep anything under the carpet, and for God to bestow upon it a very sincere, merciful leader; even though I observed then that we have passed up several opportunities for discussion such as the last wastage called National Conference, due to a tipper-load of ‘no-go-areas’. The third is for an Act of God to change the course of the nation permanently in a way that we cannot control. The truth is that every society has had the choice of these three options, with most taking the first or third path. The French and Bolshevik (Russian) revolutions fall into the first category while slave trade, colonization and Jihads for example, fall into the third category, because while traditional African societies slumbered or fought little territorial wars amongst themselves, BANG! came these events that threw them out of whack forever.
The reason why one will speak about GREATNESS in the context of Nigeria probably has to do with its endowments. With perfect weather and a plethora of natural resources, it is obvious that God meant for the place to be great. Good weather for planting food; rain in good proportion; every city and village sitting on gold-mines of natural resources, yet no natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes! USA has no right to the use of the cliché ‘God’s own country’. Nigeria is that country if ever there was one. The argument is that Nigeria has every resource for greatness, the greatest of which is the quality of its human resources; scattered all over the world adding value and doing good, working hard to prove a point (okay, with the occasional fraudster here and there). The US intelligence report of last year asserted that 50% of all Nigerian medical doctors were now resident in America. That is asides from the ones scattered all over Europe and Asia. The disadvantage that the skin colour confers have made us strive harder than most, looking for breakthroughs. Every western university boast of Nigerian Research students, Doctors and Professors for whom they have essentially designed laws making it easy for such egg-heads to naturalise in the hope that they will forget their roots.
As it turns out the Act of God has come sooner than expected, though the ability to convert same into greatness depends on whether it is recognized as an opportunity, whether our leaders are ready and most critically, whether they possess the tact, nay even the compassion to lead Nigeria to ‘the promised land’. The compassion factor comes in here because Nigeria’s greatness will be measured by how it is able to bridge the gap of grinding poverty, both in the short and long run. Every country’s greatness will soon be so measured. This is a fact recognized by pragmatic academics around the world, event from the most ardent capitalist countries. The exposure of the underbelly of American life last year by Hurricane Katrina was a stark example of how decadent Capitalism as practiced can be, in leaving the poor and unlucky to their devices. We saw on CNN and others, poverty never imagined, desperation laid bare, where full-blooded Americans, not immigrants but mostly blacks, saw opportunities to loot shops and rape women, even as their family members lay dead in the floods. My first thought then was that if Katrina had happened in Nigeria, I doubt if the thoughts on our poor people’s minds will be how to loot Park and Shop. It was a shocking spectacle!
The act of God is the steep rise in Crude Oil prices; a result of USA’s attack on Iraq and deposition of Saddam Hussein, and yes, Hurricane Katrina, among other factors. All of a sudden the black gold is trading at a price never before imagined and leaders around the world are having to readjust their thinking fast! Some are helpless though, and can only squirm in their seats, especially those at the receiving end of the Oil prices. Clearly the USA is at war at the wrongest of times, as the huge military expenditure will only worsen the deficit hole it has dug for itself. With the collapse of the stock market post-September 11, 2001 and the subsequent corporate failures of Enron, Worldcom and Arthur Andersen, a recession has set in and the USA will need a miracle to hold on to its superpower position in the long run.
That is why quite a few countries are standing up to the USA now. Venezuela, led by Hugo Chavez, hugely detested by the USA who supported a military coup against him, but inadvertently bailed out of a systemic financial and banking crisis by USA’s attack on Iraq and the subsequent sharp rise in oil price. Today, Venezuela has dumped all the much-vaunted IMF/World Bank prescription, is making so much money from Crude, and is running its own independent agenda. A BBC2 program showed last week that it costs less that 1 pound sterling (or N200) to fill a car tank with refined Premium Motor Spirit (otherwise called Petrol), simply because the country is making money and the President believes his subjects should enjoy their resources, much against the grain of IMF/World Bank prescriptions. Venezuela has also become the Father Christmas of Latin America, doling out 50billion Dollars here, 40billion dollars there to Argentina, Brazil, Peru and a host of others drawing the ire of the developed countries by putting ideas into the heads of Latin American leaders.
Iran is standing up to America too. Having elected an articulate young president called Ahmedinejad, whom the western press call an extremist but who looks to me like very intelligent, the country has gone ahead and enriched Uranium, assuring the world that it needs it for energy, not nuclear purposes. The remarkable thing about Mr Ahmedinejad is his westernized outlook, which makes you wonder wherein lies his much-touted fundamentalism. He knows he need not wear his beliefs and culture and religious leaning on his body and face before he can move his country forward. He dared the US, knowing that the world’s only remaining superpower cannot afford another war right now, and he is getting away with it in spite of so much hot air by our beloved black sister, Condy Rice. Just before then, the Palestinian people had gone ahead and installed a Hamas-led Government much to the chagrin of the USA, even though most of Europe is saying ‘lets give these chaps a chance’.
Perhaps the biggest fear of the superpower is the gradual emergence of China from the ashes of the Cultural Revolution of Emperor Mao, who must have seen the danger of putting his 2billion plus citizens on the path of crass capitalism and at the mercy of the ‘markets’. The western media, at the behest of their Governments or under the influence of the cold war, had demonized Mao and the cultural revolution, which has positioned China today as the next world power, of which every one is wary. It is worrisome though that China seems to be achieving its development (they have swapped bicycles for cars), at the expense of the developed world, as its citizens in their millions, still get smuggled into the ‘developed countries’, thereby reducing per capita income, destabilizing government projections, and ensuring that their wages, because it is illegal, do not count as part of the GDP. In fact, the developed countries may have to ‘beg’ China not to overrun the world with its population while their economy (China) improves.
Back to Nigeria. There are many reasons why the incumbent president wants to extend his tenure. The present government has not sided with the impoverished citizens, probably out of some recommendation of the Americans that advise them. For seven years under this regime, the people suffered. Yes, the people that used to suffer and quite a few more that never used to suffer, otherwise called the ‘neauveau pauvre’. Many more people dropped below the poverty line. The government decidedly used the stick against its own people and scorned them but offered no carrots. When they shouted the most, the Government increased the punishment further. And the policy of the government was entirely focused on the markets. One wonders if there was no way our bureaucrats could have chipped in a word or two for a pro-poor policy in those heady discussions with their advisers. It is noteworthy though that the people managing the Nigerian economy are ex-World Bank/IMF egg-heads, who are probably acting out in a kind of daze, some kind of brain-washing, despite the admission of those bodies in times past that its policy recommendations have foisted more poverty on developing economies.
So, the present administration may want to make amends so that it does not go down with infamy, because since the price of Crude Oil is not about to recede, if another regime comes in and decides to go one-tenth the way of Venezuela, then the people of Nigeria will see the sunny side of life and say to themselves ‘so this was possible?’. Where will Obasanjo hide by then? The payment of our debts is the only remarkable achievement so far, but it has absolutely no impact on the poor in the short run. In the long-run also, it all depends on what the in-coming Governments do with the savings from debt-servicing. And who says that the poor gave Obasanjo the permission to ‘forgive’ the ‘big men’ who signed for those loans in the past (himself inclusive), for phantom projects, with which proceeds they and their children now oppress the people of Nigeria.
The fact that this Government could have achieved the same debt write-off (which people like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown actually initiated and pushed with a lot of effectiveness, not just Nigeria’s initiative), while sparing a thought for the well-being of their people, through education, health, electricity and infrastructure means that they cannot be trusted to spare that thought now that most of the debt need not be serviced any longer. This is due partly to the fact that Obasanjo is not particularly a compassionate man and he believes Nigerians are innately ‘bad people’, and also for the fact that the IMF/World Bank bureaucrats (Soludo and Okonjo-Iweala) are still in charge.
It is amazing that in spite of the excruciating poverty facing majority of Nigerians, this regime can roll up its sleeves and embark on a certain beautification project of a capital city (Abuja) as a priority, while the rest of the country where it derives the big money (Lagos and Niger Delta), decay. In doing this, they destroyed and displaced hapless citizens without suggesting alternatives. People who are just trying to make a living were mercilessly traumatized. Many have died since then. Many will never forgive or forget. I always wonder that if the FCT minister, Mr El-Rufai is such a whizkid, and probably the only whizkid in Government, why did Obasanjo not post him to NAPEP, to use his bright ideas for poverty eradication. Except he feels people should suffer still. The man running NAPEP today is basically a suave American, spick and span, well-groomed whose spoken English (as well as programs) the poor people of Nigeria can never decipher.
Now to the sellout issue. There is a man called Professor Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner in Economics, Chief Economic Adviser to President Bill Clinton, Former Senior Vice President at the World Bank, former Chairman, Economic Policy committee at the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (aka the ‘club’ of rich countries), ex-this, ex-that. Now he’s back in the classroom. But he’s also out in the wilderness and on top of the mountain, screaming at the top of his voice for anyone that wants a piece of advice. And his message is clear; Capitalism has its failing and they are huge, no nation should leave the welfare of its people to ‘market forces’, America tried it and is paying dearly for it, reversed itself on a number of occasions but callously still coerced hapless countries of the third world to deregulate! There are critical roles for responsible Governments to balance things out between market forces and welfare! Governments must continually invest in Education and Health and infrastructure! His admonition came home to roost for America in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Stiglitz was in Nigeria a few years ago, I’m sure he must have passed on his feelings, but like we are wont to do, we sweep the truth under the carpet.
My appeal to Obasanjo, Okonjo-Iweala, Soludo and co is ; please don’t sell us out! Your present ideology will not achieve greatness for Nigeria. We are very much near the precipice of greatness, but there are words of wisdom out. Our suspicions have been confirmed – no one loves us more than we love ourselves! Your conduct so far shows you are not likely to consider the flip side. But look you must, and when your times are up, leave you must! Hear Stiglitz in his book ‘The Roaring Nineties – why we are paying the price for the greediest decade in history’. ‘Argentina was touted as the A+ student of reforms… Meanwile China, following its own course showed that there was an alternative path that could succeed both in bringing the growth that the markets promised and in markedly reducing poverty’. He waxes stronger … ‘We (the USA) maintained stiff trade barriers and large subsidies of our own on behalf of US farmers and agribusiness thereby denying our market to the farmers of the third world… we scolded the developing nations about their disrespect for intellectual property that we, too, had scorned in our days as a developing nation… at home we defended our Social Security against privatization, abroad we pushed privatisation’
Yet stronger still; ‘ At home, we argued strongly that the Fed should keep a focus on growth and unemployment. Abroad, we urged Central Banks to focus exclusively on inflation... The economists and development experts of the Third World, many of them brilliant and highly educated, were sometimes treated like children… At home we resisted pressure for changes in the bankruptcy law that would unduly hurt debtors. Abroad, a primary concern in any foreign crisis seemed the promptest and fullest repayment of debts to America and other Western Banks… We knew that there had to be a larger and different role for government, that we needed to be more concerned for the poor and for providing education and social protection for all… In the cold war we had befriended ruthless dictators, paying little heed to what they stood for and what they did, simply because they were on our side in the fight against communism… our global strategy was not likely to succeed. It was based on pressuring countries in the Third World to adopt policies that were markedly different from those we ourselves had adopted… Even our technological preeminence seemed to depend on a brain drain – America was taking the best and the brightest from around the world’.
And then ‘Clinton bravely decided not only to cut spending but also to increase taxes, mostly on the rich, who had reaped the lion’s share of economic gains over the past two decades’ and also the one that confirms my first assertion ‘every downturn comes to an end, Economic policy can make it shorter or longer, shallower or deeper… Poor schools contributed to problems that plagued inner cities and gets reflected in crime, which makes investment unattractive…’ Finally the deathblow ‘the IMF was founded … to provide countries with money necessary for expansionary fiscal policy in an economic downturn. But the IMF has forgotten its original mission, and seemingly become more interested in ensuring the repayment of foreign loans than in helping poor countries sustain their economy at as close to full employment as possible’.
This is stuff coming right out of the kitchen. First hand scoop from the crevices of the mind of an academic and a researcher with a soul. We should listen with rapt attention to what he has to say, not the praises that a tired-looking Wolfowitz, ex US Defence Minister turned World Bank MD has to sing about ex-staff (sorry she’s only on leave) ‘Ngozi’ and her team. We should pray that more of them come clean as the world order tilts in our favour. Our policy makers should not sell us short to American at this crucial time, as we may not have another chance, at least not in a long while. Our leaders should tactfully show they have a mind of their own, not to jump in every plane to go take lectures, in their ridiculous, clumsy, flowing ‘agbada’ from a George Bush that has too many problems on his hands to sort out. The emergence or near-emergence of new forces to reckon with, Nigeria inclusive, is a big headache to him. He will not advise us correctly. He may deliberately mislead us.
As I write, Nigeria Association of Senior University lecturers (ASUU) is starting a strike. Economists around the world, including the Honourable Professor Stiglitz, have averred that the return on Investment for education, for an economy, is very high. Yet our Government is busy playing 419 with our dying clan of university teachers (by not implementing a 2001 agreement), while they award private university licenses to themselves as their own contribution to the upliftment of education in the country. They only create more opportunities for brain drain. Our leader even openly abuses those who studies Philosophy, Psychology, Mass Communication and what have you, on national TV, saying they are wasting their time (a clear indication that he does not appreciate education).
Now is the time to begin the investment in Education. Now is the time for government to ensure a foundation for social balance not throw the hapless people into the waiting fangs of so-called private initiatives. Now is the time to listen to the voice of wisdom, not just follow the books. Now is the time to read between the lines and sidestep old lies! Now is the time to wind down the glasses of your tinted, bullet proof official cars and look into the eyes of the people, and recognize that they are moaning under the weight of distress and oppression. Now is the time to accept that greatness cannot be achieved by beautiful cities and skyscrapers, but by how many more minds we are able to groom and empower and how many people we are able to lift out of crass poverty, in a productive manner, not just by ‘lending’ them money. Now is the time to know that it is the government’s sole duty to achieve this, no other institution can. That is why people vest their rights in a sovereign government. Nigeria, Our leaders, Greatness beckons, let us not sell ourselves short. Let us seize our God-ordained opportunity for greatness and not seek to personalize glory out of sheer greed and egocentricity. Let us read between the lines, so that the glory of the black man can finally show forth, for the first time ever. Listen to the voice of the clear-minded prophets,,. as they shout from the hilltops…
Tope Fasua
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