Let me start with the popular belief or conclusion among its people, at home and in Diaspora and even members of the international community that, in view of the ongoing political gridlock in the country, Nigeria is, by any stretch of optimism, inevitably set on a roadmap to anarchy come 2007.  I received invitation from the Concerned Citizens Forum (a group of patriotic Nigerian expatriates living in Europe and America) on 9^th April for a brainstorming conference scheduled to take place on 27^th April in New York to map out strategies in order to avert, according to the organizers, civil wars and political hostilities that tore apart Somalia, Congo, Rwanda, Lvory Coast, Sudan and Liberia in our country should Obasanjo refuse to, as he seems plotting, leave Aso Rock in May 2007.

The message kept popping into my mailbox till Friday 28^th April, the very eve of he conference.  However, I couldn’t personally take the trip to New York since Obasanjonomics – a dubious neo-liberal economic ideology championed by Ayagi, Okonjo Iweala and Charles Soludo through the NEEDS - has rendered me like the vast majority of Nigerians a poor man in the midst of abundance.  This, I simply told the organizers in my reaction.  Nevertheless, I prayed fervently for a peaceful conduct of the conference, hoping that Nigerians in same condition would follow suit.  Meanwhile, let me get down to business which today is assessing Obasanjo’s handling of Nigerian democracy.

The president has no doubt conquered the Nigerian State in addition to its people.  No right – thinking person has ever thought our country would, even under military dictatorship, be reduced to what it is today in the eyes of the international community.  History will not fail to remember him as the pacesetter of civilian autocracy neither will the posterity.  The man, deriving inspiration from Omar Bongo, Deby, Mugabe and Paul Biya, has structurally sapped opposition in the country that Chief Don Etiebet and governors Bukar Abba, Saminu Turaki have already endorsed him for a third term.

Most of the governors within or outside the PDP and members of the National Assembly came or returned to office on the crest of the 2003 fraudulent election, which Obasanjo stage managed with the full collaboration of INEC, police and other relevant state institutions with impunity.  Hence, he can point the gun at the head of whomever raises objection to his treasonable adventure in the polity.

Looking at Obasanjo’s idiosyncrasies towards his policy formulation and implementation, I have always mentioned two basic factors to be held responsible.  First, I have said, even when Buhari was challenging the victory in a court, it is a confirmation that Nigerian people didn’t vote for the president in the 2003 election.  This was before the Appeal court, hesitantly as it seemed, came with the outright conclusion that no election was held in Ogun State, his native home!  I became further vindicated with the recent confession (or is it acknowledgement since it was not made by Guobadia?) by Maurice Iwu that the controversial election was seriously marred with fraud and electoral irregularities.  Second, it speaks volume on the moral conscience and fear of God among our political elite, especially here in the North-West where Nasir Mantu, Tafida, Sarai and Hambagda will sell their kith and kin to the highest bidder.

These two account for why the president is being comfortable with people like Fani Kayode around him to, at the slightest ray of provocation, insult whoever criticizes his government.  Dangiwa, Gowon, Soyinka, Malu and what have you have all become subject to his senseless insult for daring to call Obasanjo to order.  Observers however did not fail to discern the mental similarities between Fani and his peevish paymaster in the Villa.  The fact, they say, remains indisputable that only birds of a feather flock together.  Fani Kayode, most people believe, cannot escape the recent Obasanjo’s anatomy by MD Yusuf.

The former IG added value to the debate recently on whether Nigerians are fatefully saddled with a mental president.  Sam Isaiah said his derangement could result from his brutal prison experience in those Abacha years or from a missile fired at him by the Octogenarian Owu kingmakers.  These two according to Sam could be the driving force behind his mental misdemeanor over the last seven years.  I personally suspect three other derangements that might be influencing Nigeria’s emperor.  One, the manic depression.  Two, the senile dementia which is an old age mentality and, three, the megalomania which infects all African dictators.  This brings to the fore why many analysts now refer to the PDP as ‘Power Drunk Persons’.  This means Fani Kayode too will not be free from all these problems.  Otherwise, why do you think he would insult Gowon whose merciful intervention saved his father from military execution during the first Republic?

The PDP too as a party is now primed to do every bidding of the president.  The way Ahmadu Ali together with Ojo Maduekwe parade themselves as democrats leaves even the most casual observer in stark bewilderment.  Ali said it was Adedibu’s turn to give orders in Oyo State when impeachment crisis started brewing up against the former governor.  Ojo saw to the shameful reinstatement and promotion, after expulsion, of Chris Uba to the BOT member of the party.  Yet the duo have the temerity to declare the PDP as one of principle and discipline in the polity.

Governor Ngige fought them to the last bullet, though they prevailed on him in the long run.  Prior to him, Alamieyeseigha was arrested and charged to court by police in London over money laundering charges, as happened to Dariye a year earlier.  He jumped bail back to Nigeria and was alas impeached and detained by the EFFC.  I guess that Dariye is the next target.  I shouldn’t however be misquoted, it is indisputable that these and other state governors, virtually all, have carted away large chunks of their state treasures for which they deserve prosecution.

Yet it is equally incontrovertible that so many questions need to be answered by Nigeria’s longest serving petroleum minister.  We heard Toy Anenih’s pronouncement that no one knows the daily earnings of Nigeria’s oil industry.  It is also on record that over 50% of corruption take place within the Nigerian presidency.  Afterall, while Ladoja lost his seat for raising objection to corruption, Dariye donated sizeable portion of his loot to presidential campaign in the South-West.  Donations to presidential library Pentascope deal, CHOGM etc. are all balls in the EFCC court.

The wanton havoc on the economy, partisan nature of state institutions due to the president’s domineering attitude coupled with his desperate desire to elongate his tenure are what pose the biggest threat to our country.  It was reported that at one extreme, Obasanjo almost engaged the nation in a military adventure to use that as a pretext for tenure extension.  It failed and he soon conceived the National Political Reform Conference, which nearly balkanized our ethnic contraptions over Resource Control, Derivation and Power Rotation.

Besides, despite the seemingly limitless power he wields in mismanaging our resources, the president, better addressed as emperor, has extended his partisan sway beyond any stretch of imagination.  With the undeclared but obvious suspension which later became expulsion of Atiku from the PDP, not to mention the recurring security clamp down on opposition party activities, the Nigerian Television Authority NTA refused to air the live broadcast of the ACD launch in Abuja after collecting about six million Naira for the programme.  The party’s launch it seems to Tonnie Iredia did not deserve to be watched since it heralded the failure of the third term.  This is both dangerous and primitive.

Similarly, in an interview with the Guardian on 15^th April, Usman Bugaje, a member of the House of Representatives was quoted revealing a threat to the life of whomever collects the third term cake and refuse to vote for the agenda.  That decision by the third term apostles could be informed by the repeated calls on the lawmakers to collect and keep their noses clean.  Nigerians generally know the campaigners will go any length to achieve their treasonable objective.  For one the passionate crusaders are the living beneficiaries of the dubious privatization programme.  Obasanjo’s continual stay in power means a safe-conduct for them and their ill-gotten assets from our common patrimony. 

Others are would be ministers, MDs or ambassadors, whose destiny lies squarely in the success of the third term.  And the PDP has already made clear its intention to guarantee tazarce for every senator, House member etc after the victory of the villains.

Even governors were initially given that assurance.  The twist of fate apparently came upon a desire to punish the arrogant ones among them.  Hence the sudden plot to reserve immunity, third term for Obasanjo.  The governors therefore have to defeat the idea from their state levels or give support to Obasanjo so as to cut them to size in the future.  Our legislators, given their antecedents, may take Ghana must – go stance on the matter.  They have every right to do that while Nigerians too reserve the right to ambush them at their ward levels.  Tafida, Hambagda are notable examples to reckon with.

FRCN, What’s Wrong?

MUHAMMAD BASHIR is with the Kaduna Chromicle Newspaper, Kaduna

Email: bashirsenior@yahoo.com