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Possible Fall Outs From Third Term Debate By Anthony A. Akinola
One irony of the third term issue is that General Olusegun Obasanjo who vacated office voluntarily as a military ruler in 1979 and was accorded great respect by the international community for his "uncommon African feat" is today at the centre of a sit-tight controversy. His "intention" to remain in office beyond the limit of two terms permitted by the 1999 Constitution may or may not be informed by patriotic reasons but the choice we have made in Nigeria is that of a constitutional democracy powered by a periodic change of leadership and ideas. The monotonous and nauseating argument that Obasanjo has no credible alternative can therefore only impress the apologist of political dictators and sit-tight rulers.
If political greatness is measured by the length of time a political actor spent in office, Africa’s past and present leaders would be in the upper league and those of the advanced democratic nations of the world in the lower one. Political greatness is about responding positively and decisively to the most pressing challenge of one’s generation. Even when Obasanjo is a successful Nigerian leader by all relative and comparative accounts, it is doubtful if he would achieve the greatness he seeks by destroying what could have amounted to a great legacy in the eyes of history. The culture of periodic democratic leadership change, if spear- headed by the first political leader that Obasanjo is in our new Nigerian Republic is, in itself, a platform for greatness and political immortality.
The political arrangement mimicked by Nigeria is America’s, so it is not out of place to say something about the nation’s political leadership. George Washington, America’s first President, is not remembered as an economic miracle worker; the respect accorded to his great name emanated from the manner in which he established the principles of democracy and constitutional government in the American nation. When Richard Nixon, America’s 36th President, got himself enmeshed in the Watergate scandal Americans said he violated the legacy of George Washington. John F. Kennedy did not even complete a four-year tenure but his name is right there among those of great presidents because of what he accomplished within a very short period of time.
A great political leader provides the yardstick or standard by which others are judged. Because he was a small man with oversized boots, Mobutu Zeze-Zeko could not provide Zaireans with a positive legacy in spite of more than thirty years of political leadership. Robert Mugabe started very well, as the free world acclaimed him for leading his people to freedom and independence from the trenches. He has since become a pariah in civilized circles because he had long outlived his usefulness. Obasanjo may have helped in resolving our debt burden but is it not a sad pointer that those who made "debt forgiveness" possible are today viewing him with some contempt because of the third term confusion?
The third term agenda can only lead to a major crisis, not least because of the belligerent manner with which it is being pursued. If third term is "forced" unto the constitution the proponents will translate it into an accomplished task in 2007, even if it requires the rigging of elections. The crisis warning the proponents may arrogantly want to ignore will come to the fore when the outcome of the presidential election is violently contested. The third term controversy may not have polarized society along ethnic or religious sympathies, not least because the presidency has succeeded in tying its own greed with those of state governors so it could be predicted that a crisis situation could be a free-for-all street fighting.
It can no longer be said that President Obasanjo’s quest for a third term in office is "alleged", because it is now real. The president himself has said that a further term in office would enable him to anchor his programmes – an ambition that has been pursued both ruthlessly and crudely by the leadership of his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
"Obasanjoism" is a strange element in modern, democratic philosophy. The tactics President Obasanjo employs tend to play on the intelligence of Nigerians. The military tactics of secrecy and keeping the opposition guessing may be admirable in a war situation but it is one tactic that could be deemed odd in some democratic cultures and circumstances. Even when Obasanjo has already made up his mind on what he would do he tells Nigerians he is still consulting God. The larger public may or may not endorse it, a major presidential address formally seeking the understanding and support of Nigerians would have been the intelligent and polite approach if an elongated tenure was indeed in our national interest. There may be a time in the life of a nation – a state-of-war for instance – when an exception could be granted to the rule.
The two terms limit was of a conventional practice in America until 1945 when it was formally entrenched in the Constitution. The Great Depression of the 1930s and America’s involvement in the Second World War were factors which combined in favour of Delano Roosevelt winning three elections. He was President for twelve years. Roosevelt’s economic reforms were monumental, provoking what is until today acknowledged as the greatest political realignment in American history – the massive shift of Black American voters from Abraham Lincoln’s Republican Party of Emancipation to the reformist Democratic Party.
Take the unsubstantiated allegations of bribery out of the scene, one would say that the ongoing debate on the third term agenda is healthy for the future of democracy in Nigeria. Of course motives compete and contrast in a debate of this nature, one nevertheless believes that the most important outcome, especially if third term is defeated, would be the establishment of the primacy of constitutional principles in our democracy. The impact would not only reflect on the tenure of the president but generally on the critical provisions of the Nigerian Constitution. If, for instance, the principle of leadership rotation is entrenched in the Constitution no group can unilaterally change it for selfish reasons.
The one other good thing one sees about this debate is that "for and against" cuts across ethnic and religious boundaries. The Yoruba has not supported third term overwhelmingly on the grounds that the incumbent President is a member of their group. Prominent Yoruba activists like Chief Gani Fawehinmi and Professor Wole Soyinka have been at the forefront of anti third term campaigns. Their respect for constitutionality and lack of ambition for ethnic hold on political power is commendable. Embracing the principles of fairness and constitutionality will do the unity of Nigeria a world of good if at all times such principles know no ethnic or religious discriminations.
Email: anthonyakinola@yahoo.co.uk
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