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Countdown to May 29, 2007 (1) by Chido Onumah
If things go as expected, we will have a new president on May 29, 2007. Chairperson of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Maurice Iwu, confirmed last week that the next general elections will hold between April 7 and 29, 2007. Iwu tried very hard to dispel the notion that he was waiting to hear the final word from President Obasanjo before announcing plans for the elections.
“By law, I can only give the notice of election by a specific date (and) it cannot be too early. There is a time by law. So, when people say that INEC has not given notice for elections, it means that they are ignorant of the law or they are being mischievous,” Iwu said. We don’t know which law Iwu was referring to, but the constitution is very clear on this issue. Section 132 (1) of the constitution states: “An election to the office of President shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission. Section 132 (2) goes on to say: “An election to the said office shall be held on a date not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.”
The constitution doesn’t say anything about when the notice (announcement) of the dates for the election should be given. Unless Iwu is referring to some INEC law which he ought to make public, it is tough to explain why this notice wasn’t given before now. Going by the history of elections in Nigeria, Iwu should have availed INEC of the maximum time allowed by the constitution to ensure that election petitions are addressed before the handover date. Rather than accuse a skeptical public of mischief, Iwu and his INEC ought to face the challenge ahead and ensure that the 2007 elections are conducted with very little hitches. If the third term plot had not been truncated, perhaps there wouldn’t have been a presidential election next. Of course, Maurice Iwu and his independent electoral commission would have found a justification for that anomaly.
Now that Obasanjo has conceded defeat, politicians have started jostling to replace him. The motley crowd of presidential candidates ranges from the comical to the outright inane. At the last count, there were more than two dozen candidates. But what are the guarantees that the president will leave in 365 days? Beyond his request to his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), to prepare for the 2007 elections, Obasanjo has said and done very little for someone who has just one year left. The president has enormous powers and if he decides to use his powers he can undermine the 2007 elections.
If Obasanjo could dream of tenure extension, it is certainly not beyond him to attempt to derail the next presidential election. Fiery lawyer, Gani Fawehinmi put it succinctly when he stated that “a defeated dictator is a wounded lion ... Obasanjo’s attitude to 2007 would be if I can’t get it, you also won’t have it.” Obasanjo has the resources of the Nigerian state at his disposal. He has the power of incumbency; he controls the means of terror and coercion and he has used those means on more than one occasion to subvert democracy and the rule of law. Whether Obasanjo will succeed in whatever plans he comes up with would depend, of course, on the forces arrayed against him.
Some people have argued that Obasanjo deserves the benefit of the doubt; that he has done his penance; that he sounds sincere and that he has been humbled by the defeat of the third term plot. I don’t want to be pessimistic even though there is enough reason to be. Only time will tell if Obasanjo has learned any lesson from his attempt to foist a decadent and backward agenda on the nation. The president has already done enough damage. One of the fallouts of his harebrained attempt to elongate his tenure was the emergence of a group of latter-day democrats who were all vehemently opposed to his third term agenda even though when they had the opportunity to put the country on a democratic path, they did all they could to undermine the very thing they now seem to cherish.
The most notorious of this bunch, of course, is ex-dictator, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB). Babangida has declared that nothing would stop him from contesting the 2007 presidential election and going by media reports he has started making preparations to ensure his success at the polls. Babangida was one of the many voices opposed to the third term agenda and when the Senate threw out the third term bill two weeks ago, he was one of those the media went to for comments.
“I knew it would not succeed because there was no adequate consultation with Nigerians on the matter,” Babangida, who spoke through his Chief of Staff, retired Col. Habib Shauib, said. “It did not succeed, not because the lawmakers did not want constitutional amendment, but because of the way the proponents packaged the exercise as a third-term agenda,” Babangida told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN). Waxing philosophical, the former military president noted that amending the constitution was such an intricate matter that required very wide consultation and adequate time. He commended the leadership of the Senate for its uprightness, benevolence and commitment to the ideals of democracy.
It is only in Nigeria that the likes of Babangida would become the point man for constitutional rule. Does Babangida really expect Nigerians to take lessons from him on the ideals of democracy? I have a feeling he does! And since there is no law stopping sadists and tyrants from contesting the presidency, the possibility of a President Babangida in 2007 looms large. Babangida has said repeatedly that he, more than any other person, understands the way Nigerians think and behave. Maybe he is right. I was in a casual online chat with a friend a few days and the issue of Obasanjo’s successor came up. My friend lamented the dearth of presidential materials. He was peeved that those Nigerians that seemed capable weren’t showing interest in the presidency.
Perhaps, as a quick fix, my friend suggested that Babangida might be an alternative. “Maybe IBB will make a good president,” he said. “Maybe he will come and repair what he damaged.” I didn’t know how to respond without angering my friend. All I could add was that the presidency was not a place for IBB to make up for his misdeeds and that he should be in prison for what he did to Nigerians. I began to wonder what would make any Nigerian think of the presidency and mention IBB. Is it desperation or just a case of the devil you know? Whatever it is, the name Babangida and presidency should never again appear in the same sentence.
So much has been said and written why IBB shouldn’t come anywhere near the presidency. There is even a website http://www.againstbabangida.com/ dedicated solely to chronicling IBB’s crimes and stopping him from ever attempting to rule Nigeria again. This anti-Babangida campaign is not the product of paranoia. IBB evokes so many bad memories. “A man who brought corruption to the fore in Nigeria. A man who suffocated Nigerians with all sorts of programmes. A man who scuttled the freest and fairest election in the history of this country. A man who does not believe in democracy. A man who does not love democracy.” That was Gani Fawehinmi describing IBB in a recent interview.
Gani, of course, was being charitable. IBB did more than scuttle the freest and fairest election in the history of Nigeria. IBB personifies all that is wrong about Nigeria. He is a reflection of the darkest side of Nigeria’s tortuous history. It’s a measure of the man’s treachery that there are very few places he can walk freely in Nigeria. Let’s just say for the purpose of argument that every Nigerian must rule the country, Babaginda, as president from August 1985 to August 1993, has had his constitutionally mandated two terms. Any attempt to add to that will only spell doom.
Now that Nigerians have fought to stop Obasanjo’s attempt at life presidency, will the next battle be how to stop IBB in 2007?
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