Democracy, Momentum and the Decline of the “Grand ol’ Party” of Nigerian politics-The PDP

By

William Etim Bassey

To Clara, you inspired this article.

Some suggest that the failure of Pres. Obasanjo’s third–term proposition might dampen the general national optimism brought about by democracy and the positives of his seven-year rule as Nigeria’s third democratically elected President.

I offer a proof-by-argument and insist that Pres. Obasanjo’s legacy is secure even if by happenstance.

This is because the optimism and positive synergy generated by soaring international oil prices, debt relief by Nigeria’s several creditors alongside a more astatute management of the national economy and a relatively stable polity where democratic checks and balances ensure a degree of probity and respect for due process in executive decision-making has not been completely exhausted.

My opinion is that every democratic promise or benefit can still be fulfilled if everybody with an interest in Nigeria’s future acts responsibly.

While the logic for opposing Pres. Obasanjo’s third-term proposition is a no-brainer to every true democrat. I am concerned that the overpowering of Pres. Obasanjo’s third-term bid is really not a victory for democracy in Nigeria but a personal victory for V.P Atiku Abubakar’s ubiquitous political ambitions. But what can I do about my concerns? Certainly nothing except come election day 2007.

Nevertheless, considering that elections are all about political calculus, I am not particularly surprised that Pres. Obasanjo’s third term proposition floundered and failed and the opposition is in the ascendancy.

This is because the GOP-PDP is divided and vulnerable, and Pres. Obasanjo’s hand-picked “political enablers” had no theory for victory considering the opposition allayed against them. Considered in context, the disposition, and utterances of PDP members such as Abia State Governor. Orji Kalu should have triggered a warning to Pres. Obasanjo to the fact that his caucus doesn’t hold sway in the PDP scheme of things anymore.

So when Pres. Obasanjo’s “political enablers” applied their chosen tactic for victory that leveraged coercion, bribery, and political horse-trading against the political opposition in an attempt to ensure victory.  It all went bust.

These tactics were doomed to fail because it ignored the enduring pre-eminence of the human dimension. People and emotions matter most. Consider this human dimension I am referring to in the Theucydian context of fear, honour and interest and things will begin to make sense. 

Politics is all about momentum and so political momentum has become a byword in every political campaign. As political fortunes raise and fall good political groups try to gauge just how much momentum they have and can leverage on the opposition. 

In this context, while some may argue that the political leader is the principle centre of gravity. I would argue that the political group’s ability to attract sympathisers and supporters is key to political victory.  

If this momentum analogy appears too theoretical when considered in the context of actual political campaigns in Nigeria, then consider the ease with which Pres. Obasanjo’s third-term proposition was defeated in the Nigerian senate as a wake-up call to the fact that theories do work but we have never given it a chance.

I would even suggest that Pres. Obasanjo’s third-term proposition failure should become the standard predictive political case study since there is no historical or contextual alternative.

It has become a mantra in this pre-election year that “anti-third-termers” who are slowly regrouping in a PDP splinter group have the political momentum as the 2007 elections beckon.

From utter powerlessness considering the decisive incumbency factor in the context of third-world politics, the “anti-third-termers”/splinter PDP group now enjoy a considerable political edge.

But there were pointers that to Pres. Obasanjo’s third-term campaign would flounder and the opposition would gain momentum considering that the central issues were neither about Pres. Obasanjo’s considerably successful economic reforms nor his fairly challenged popularity. It was more about protecting Nigeria’s nascent democracy because when you tear up the “rulebook” albeit constitution, democracy flounders.

Nevertheless, while the “anti-third-termers”/splinter PDP group may be riding the wave of momentum as the 2007 gubernatorial and presidential elections approach. It is pertinent to bear in mind that its symbolic leader VP Atiku Abubakar was also considered a credible presidential candidate in 2003 before tactfully stepping aside for his boss current Pres. Obasanjo.

Although the current political momentum appears unstoppable, momentums do stutter, falter and can be disrupted by unseen frictional factors including coups and counter coups. After all, Nigeria is still a developing country and the key component of the Clausewitzian trinity- the army [armed forces] remains a looming and decisive factor. Moshood Abiola’s failed Presidential bid in the early 1990’s that culminated in his unfortunate passing away is the perfect historical reminder.

Even though the old guard within the PDP have not launched their own counter-attacks and might still be smarting from the defeat of their third-term bid. It is still too early to count them out.

Although Nigerians often argue that socio-economic or socio-political theories are contextually inapplicable because of the ubiquitous “Nigerian factor”.

I am tempted to conclude by predicting that if the Chief. Tony Anenih inspired GOP-PDP old guards do not initiate a salient counter attack after restructuring, realigning, and re-evaluating the PDP grand-strategy within three months to incapacitate and route the PDP splinter group or young Turks decisively. Then my momentum theory might just run its political course and render the “PDP old guard” powerless as Election Day 2007 approaches.

However, I will pass on any silly prediction because of the forewarning by the great geopolicist Colin S. Gray in “Another Bloody Century”. Gray notes that   “Trends come in bunches, interact unpredictably, and may produce a future which, though necessarily built on familiar material from the past [history], is so qualitatively different from what went on before as to frustrate predictions”. 

In concluding this article, I can only caution that history tells us that even in rheretorical expressions of uncompromising resolve to withstand threats to interest, society, or system. Once the death-blow has been struck by a belligerent with momentum, it is very difficult to stage a successfully fight back without the total control of the Clausewitzian trinity-government, army and people.   So I argue that the GOP/PDP old guards are in trouble and the “PDP splinter group/the young Turks” are in accent.

London, England

June 4^th 2006.

William Ernest Etim-Bassey is an Associate of the L. B. Pearson Canadian International Peacekeeping Training Centre.

William holds an M.A degree in International Security studies with a specialization in Strategy and Terrorism and Security.