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Is The Cookie Really Crumbling? Sokoto Politics And Dilemma Of Misinformed Analysis By Gatawa M. Bagobiri Explaining the complex political developments in Sokoto State has not been all that easy. It is an enterprise that requires sound understanding not only of the State political history but its geography, culture and political sociology. For one to make intelligent analysis of Sokoto State politics, knowledge of group dynamics, social relations, political behaviour and political culture is essential. Mastery of all these may make political analysis on Sokoto State less cumbersome. On the contrary, ignorance of these factors or reliance of hearsay and misguided utterances propagated by politicians with a view to winning sympathy and supporters will surely deter one (no matter how educated one is) from offering a meaningful insights on the current and future trends in Sokoto politics.
For instance, so sooner was Democratic
Transition Programme unveiled in 1998, a section of the State elite
relied on such layman’s facts and roadside stories to predict that the
present Sokoto State Governor, Alhaji Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa, would
be defeated if he dared contest the 1999 gubernatorial election. For
employing wrong tools in making their analysis then, such a group was
humiliated by the outcome of the 1999 gubernatorial election. Though at
a lesser degree, similar wrong tools were used in predicting who was to
win the 2003 gubernatorial election.
As similar elections are to be conducted
early next year, the political analysts seem not to learn any lesson or
show some sign of improvement in their mastery of predicting the shape
of things to come regarding the politics and political behaviour in the
State. Our expectation is that as professional and exposed as they are
with the pattern of our democracy, the elite would this time employ
relevant tools to guide their political analysis. Contrary to this, they
have started using the old, outdated and unscientific methods of
analysis, not minding that times without number such approaches had only
led them into arriving at wrong conclusions.
For instance, a commentator and one of the
contributing member in the lively Sokoto Political Discourse, has
observed that as far as current and future Sokoto State political
development is concerned, all he could see and predict is the “Crumbling
of the Cookie” and that the whole game revolves round the combined
forces of the newly registered Party, “DPP, Bafarawa’s incumbency and
its consequent emasculation” effect on the Sokoto citizens. Such charges
as the use of Executive machinery to propagate and drag civil servants
and traditional rulers into the new party, the religious polarization of
the State by the State Executives and use of state resources for party
politics are all but an indication of how the elite have derailed from
offering an objective political analysis of the State.
How could an analyst, who admits visiting
the state periodically, claims to provide an insightful, balanced and
biased-free analysis of such a complex issue as Sokoto State politics?
It is surprising reading an elitist writing on websites and newspapers
equating littering posters with popularity and acceptance in our current
political dispensation. Only outside analysts who are not in touch with
realities as they relate to politics and political behaviour among
Nigerians in Nigeria can make such a analytical blunder. Consider also,
the assertion that one sign showing that the “cookie was crumbling” was
the political rally in Tambawal by one of the political party fiercely
in competition with Bafarawa’s new party.
In all, realizing the subjective contents
of his/her political analysis of Sokoto State politics and having openly
declared his/her support for one of the political parties competing for
control of power in the state, the commentator knows, as we all know,
that his/her analysis lacks objectivity and might be thrown into dust
bin by those wishing to enrich their understanding of Sokoto politics.
This attitude of such analysts is beginning to make citizens doubt the
ability of provide necessary insights of the shape of things to come
2007. As at now, most of the analyses offered on the subject provide no
deeper insights than mere assembling of roadside stories for
publication. For sure, that’s explains why such analyses expect “to draw
harsh rejoinders” over their unsystematic approaches.
In this Forum we have said it times
without number that the elite owe it a duty to provide necessary
leadership to our teeming electorates and masses. As the 2007 general
elections draw nearer, the elite are expected to undertake the task of
educating and enlightening the masses. Where the elite fail in this
sense the masses will in turn begin to loose confidence in them. No
wonder, the status and respect accorded elite by the masses is fast
withering out. Are the masses to blame? No. The blame squarely rests
with the elite who seem to lack principles, objectivity and necessary
exposure to enable them meet the societal expectations.
This apart, I appreciate the contributions
of all analysts (objective or biased) on Sokoto Political Discourse. As
issues are debated and analysed, the more interesting the Discourse
becomes. On the contrary, the more individuals are debated and analysed,
the more the discourse looses relevance and sense of direction. Our
‘self-exile’ brothers and sisters (and those that opted to confine
themselves within the geographical boundary of Nigeria) should kindly
take note of this.
Hmm, Sakkwatawa ho!
Lon live Sokoto State!
GATAWA M. BAGOBIRI,
SABON BIRNI LGA,
SOKOTO STATE
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