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Of recent, two issues are dominating debates in the north - the agitation for power shift and the much-talked search for oil in the north; the latter has raised so many questions than answers in the minds of the common northerners and indeed many Nigerians: why are northern leaders eager to search for oil now? Is it purely for economic reason? Is it just politics or simply the usual Nigerian elites’ way of approaching issues? If it is for economic reasons, would the common man on the streets benefits from it? Would it not be a replica of what is happening in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, where poverty is rampaging like a wild fire in the midst of plenty? While selected few, are egging from the circumstances. Out of the forty-six years of Nigeria’s political independence; northern elites had power on their grab for nearly thirty-eight years; what is boggling the minds of northern talakawas is; what had stopped the elites then, in making a true resolute effort in the search for oil in north, despite the fact that, preliminary geological survey had shown evidence of oil existence? Though, no right thinking man of understanding can carry-on, on a white elephant project just to satisfy regional inclination at the expense of greater Nigeria, but has the present crop of northern leaders done to the north what would have freed the poorer of the poor from the prison of poverty to an unlocked future? The answer is anybody’s guess– one may not be out of point to say: nearly most elites in the north have their legs wobbling, now that Obasanjo have systematically shown to them how to use power – despites the hitherto long period of northern elites domination of Nigeria’s political space; the region is virtually crawling behind the rest of the other regions of Nigeria, in almost all sector Nigerian economy. There are strong convictions that oil will be found, or indeed, it do exist in Lake Chad part of Nigeria; for the reason that Niger republic and Chad have stroke oil on their part of the Lake. But how will the whole process going to be taken? Is the Northern Nigeria Development Corporation (NNDC) that seems spearheading the project going to approach the issue ‘off-the- shelve’? Who are the prospective technical partners? Would real business men from the north, who are always at poles apart with long term investment, be willing to invest in the project ; a project that probably is their grand children would benefit from; how about environmental issues? – It is a known fact that Lake Chad is considerably shrinking; how about the locals, whose livelihood is sustained by the Lake? Nevertheless, the recent production sharing agreement between the NNPC and NNDC is a welcome step. Though, the world is at a speed in search of cheaper and cleaner energy, when hydrocarbon is stroke in the Lake Chad part of Nigeria, it would not be only beneficial to the north but greater Nigeria- more petrodollars to the nation, more jobs and opportunities and technology transfer. But some observers are of the view that, there is strong correlation between oil and corruption in Nigeria; others are also of the opinion, Nigeria’s continuous reliance on oil as the locomotive of the economy; is continuing to make Nigeria’s economy system, a ‘series’ built-up system; where the failure of the ‘source’ system, means the bringing down of the economy down to its knees. The current NNPC ethanol project is one among the many ways to re-design Nigeria’s economy into a ‘parallel’ based system, where a situation of dwindled oil price in the international market will not necessary mean an instant collapse of the economy. Does the NNDC determined effort to search for oil in the north means the north is completely leapfrogging away from boosting agro-allied industries and developing human resource?- This is the most immediate need of the region. Is oil the answer to the current level of poverty in the north? - most countries in the world, who are now considerably having the fastest growing economy and high GDP achieved such through purely human resources development. Or are the political leaders in the north foresee a Nigeria, where politics of oil would in future be the order of the day; when you have oil you control the polity; but common Nigerians would not in any way pray for such, but the typical Nigerian politician would love such scenarios or something similar, that would give them unmerited political advantage. Nevertheless the start of Oil exploration in northern Nigeria, will means a new entirely different operating environment that would be easy to operate on, without adverse environmental destruction and opportunity for Nigeria to have a new start in oil exploration.
Zayyad I. Muhammad
writes from Jimeta, Nigeria.
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