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Political Stalemate In The Offing In 2007 Senate President And Not Ing To Fill Discovered Lacuna By Omo Omoruyi
STALEMATE AS A HIDDEN AGENDA
There is an organized plan to foist stalemate on the political succession come May 29, 2007. From the way the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) is made to carry on with its assignment by this administration, it should be obvious by now that no conclusive Presidential election would result from the exercises that would commence in April 2007 and there is likely not going to be a person to be sworn in on May 29, 2007. Does it mean that the present President should continue? What should happen? There is an obvious lacuna in the 1999 Constitution. The warning signs are there that the current administration is hell bent to exploit what one Court of Appeal Justice told me as the “fundamental lacuna” unless the National Assembly comes to the rescue today by way of a constitutional amendment. Are we not witnessing some aspects of a hidden agenda of the third termers? The anti third termers should be alert to their responsibility and stop it. This is the subject of this short interaction with you. I pray that you will carry the warning signs to the Nigerian people as you did during the fight against the third term or tenure elongation project. The warning signs are there already.
NO EXPERIENCE WITH SUCCESSION ELECTION
Nigeria has never been blessed with an orderly succession election conducted by an office holder in the past. One would recall the independence election of 1959 and the succession elections of 1979, 1993 and 1999; they were conducted by a government headed by those who were not candidates. Sir James Robertson (1959), Obasanjo (1979) Babangida (1993) and Abubakar (1999) were genuinely interested in the election of their successors as they were not candidates. One would recall the election of 1964, 1983, and 2003 where the leaders of the government who managed the elections were also candidates. Balewa (1964), Shagari (1983) Obasanjo (2003) were candidates who presided over the badly rigged elections in the nation’s history. With the above lessons from Nigerian history, one had hoped and thought that the 2007 election under President Obasanjo would not only be free and fair but would be credible because he would not be candidate even though he also be an office holder. We are wrong, unfortunately. It should be obvious that the 2007 is terribly affiliated by a third term virus. The office holder cannot think of a Nigeria without him as the office holder.
ANTI-THIRD TERM ACTORS SHOULD WAKE UP FROM THEIR SLUMBER One would recall that the third term project was technically killed on May 16, 2006. From the development since then the third term project was only “scotched but was not killed”. The anti-third term actors went to sleep while the pro-third term zealots went back to the drawing board. The third term has since May 16, 2006 acquired a new dynamism with new names, such as (1) the multiplicity of green horns as Presidential candidates from different parts of Nigeria over the night after the death of the third term in the National Assembly; (2) the plan to have a three year capital budget passed into law by the current National Assembly; (3) the plan to have a “Life Leadership” for President Obasanjo within the PDP; (4) the organized plan to discredit the two credible PDP aspirants, Atiku and IBB; and (5) the plan to undermine the INEC. All these plans should be read within the context of the plan to have an inconclusive Presidential election. An inconclusive Presidential election would then guarantee the continuation of the President Obasanjo administration under one guise or the other, so the third termers think. The signs are there; Nigeria will be afflicted with an inconclusive Presidential election. The signs are there that the handlers of President Obasanjo do not want him to go in May 2007. The signs are there that they are making him to work hard to make it impossible for an elected President to emerge by May 29, 2007. The signs are there that up till now INEC is still fighting over money from the Presidency and the signs are there that INEC still cannot commence the voter’s registration and come up with a realistic time table for the series of elections in 2007.
FOUR ELECTIONS
We are likely to have elections whose period would exceed May 29, 2007. Is Nigeria prepared for the four elections provided for in the 1999 Constitution? What then happens to the political order? This is the basis of my fears and this press interaction. The first election will be held late in April 2007. We should also appreciate that the election will be in a multiparty system, with appeals to ethnic, religious and zonal considerations. It should be obvious that no party would be able to emerge victorious in the first ballot. Therefore Section 133 and Section 134 (1) dealing with one and two candidates respectively would not apply to the 2007 election. We shall have more than two in fact about thirty candidates with different interests and appeals that may be difficult to reconcile within the period available to the parties before the commencement of the series of elections. What is the source of my fear? MY FEAR FOR 2007 My fear arises from where there are more than two candidates under the atmosphere discussed above that no candidate would emerge victorious in the first ballot and no one will be ready to take the oath of the office of the President on May 29, 2007. One wonders whether the Nigerian politicians have addressed their minds to Section 134 (2-5) dealing with the series of election. This should be the task of political education that unless parties come to terms with the fact of the Constitution there might not be a winner on May 29, 2007. The third termers seem to know the political implications of the current elements of stalemate that may engulf the election in 2007, and hence they are not worried. They are planning to exploit the outcome of a series of election. Whither the anti third termers! Let us review the four elections and appreciate the source of my fear.
1st Election
To be elected according to Section 134 (2) of the 1999 Constitution where there are more than two candidates, a candidate shall be deemed elected if;
(a) He has the highest number of votes cast (plurality) at the Election; and
(b) He has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the Election in each of at least the two-thirds of all the States And the Federal Capital Territory. Abuja.
One hopes Nigerians know the difference between a plurality and majority votes. The candidate who has the plurality (the highest votes cast) could hardly meet the condition (2) geographical spread in b above. This is the crux of the matter that would lead to the second election.
2nd Election
Section 134 (3) deals with a situation where no candidate is able to meet the condition specified in Section 134 (2). Section 134 (3) specifies that “there shall be a second election held for two candidates - the candidate who scored the highest number of votes plurality and a candidate with a majority votes in the highest number of States or with the highest total of votes. How this second candidate emerges will be a subject of controversies and litigation that may frustrate the second election. This will be the beginning a controversy, the end we don’t know.
3rd Election
If no winner emerges from the second election, Section 134 (4) states that INEC shall within seven days of the results arrange for an election between the two candidates in Section 134 (3) above and the winner will be the candidate who has a “majority of votes (plurality) cast at the election” and no less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two thirds of all the States and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The operating word here is “arrange”; it does not specify within what time frame.
4th Election
If no winner emerges from the 3rd election, Section 134 (5) states that INEC shall within seven days of the results of the election arrange for another election between the two candidates; the winner shall be the candidate with a majority of the votes cast at the election”. The geographical spread that formed the plank of the minorities as the fourth dimension in Nigerian politics in Nigeria would be jettisoned. The winner of this election would ignore certain States.
UNRESOLVED ISSUES AND BASIS OF THE LACUNA AND HENCE THE STALEMATE
1. If there is a second election or what in political parlance is called run-off, the Constitution only states that there shall be a second election without stating the time frame. A minimum of three months is internationally expected for a run-off. The latest of this is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Certainly a second ballot or a run-off is alien to the Nigerian politics. There are obvious questions that we should ponder over now. How do we cope with it? Can this be before May 29, 2007? Whither the outgoing President! Whither the incoming President! 2. The situation in the 3rd and 4th election introduces a new term called “arrange”. The Constitution only says that INEC shall arrange without specifying how and the time frame. 3. The Constitution is silent on the application of fixed dates in the tenure of the President. 4. The Constitution is silent on who would succeed OBJ on May 29, 2007. Those who have been talking of a variant of a third term in the name of the “Interim National Government” (ING) are actually alluding to the lacuna that exists especially in Section 135 (1a) of the 1999 Constitution which specifically states that “..... Any person (meaning OBJ) shall hold the office of President until when a successor (winner in 2007 election) in office takes the oath of that office” … The questions are: (i) Would that successor in office emerge on May 29, 2007?
(ii) Suppose that successor does not emerge as of that day May 29, 2007 would OBJ continue in office until such a time when that person emerges”? (iii) Would OBJ constitute an Interim National Government drawing on the parties? (iv) Would an Interim National Government emerge from the other Section of the Constitution? My fear is that the signs are there that President Obasanjo is not unaware of the fundamental lacuna and laws. It would appear that this is the source of a hidden agenda under which if there is an inconclusive election OBJ’s handlers believe that he would stay put or concoct a contrivance outside the Constitution that would continue with the OBJ policies. Consider these: (1) Is this not why the Presidency is coming up with plans beyond 2007? (2) Is it not why he is not behaving as the traditional lame duck President? (3) Is this not why he wants to be the Life Leader of the PDP? (4) Is this not why he wants to force the National Assembly to pass a three-year Capital Budget into law in 2006/7? (5) Is this not why he wants to discredit other aspirants as corrupt and unfit to rule Nigeria outside himself and who he recommends? Where the anti third term forces in the National Assembly and in the country? Are they not seeing signs of tenure elongation? The National Assembly should not play into the hands of the pro-stalemate. It should encourage credible candidates to vie and insist on the application of the Constitution and the Electoral Laws and not the one by other bodies outside the Constitution and the Laws. The National Assembly should reject the three-year Budget plan as a veiled plan to have term elongation beyond May 29, 2007 The PDP if it still wants to be a democratic party beyond May 29, 2007 should reject the plan to make the President a Life Leader of the party. The PDP should stop the plan to encourage the pro-third termers turned democrats over night in the country who are actually agents of stalemate.
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO STEP UP AND AMEND THE CONSTITUTION NOW
I am not a lawyer and in fact the Constitution is not meant for the lawyers but for the common man like my humbleself. We all should be able to resort to it for the solution to our political problems like what would happen if there is an inconclusive election as may likely happen in May 2007? What do we tell our children in the Civics Class? Maybe Hon Frank Nweke jnr should tell us as the Minister of Information and National Orientation. The Honourable Minister what do we tell our children? What do we tell the international community? This is what should be requested from the handlers of the President, if they are not also out for some mischief.
SECTION 146(2) AS A GUIDE
Let us revisit the Constitution and see whether there is and can be a solution to the obvious lacuna in the event of an inconclusive election come May 2007. We cannot find anything within the sections dealing with elections. The Constitution already says in Section 146 (2) that where the Office of President and of Vice President are vacant, the President of the Senate shall hold Office of President for a period of not more than three months during which there shall be an election of a new President ………..” Is this not what we have when there is no winner as of May 29, 2007 to take over from the President?
NEED FOR IMMEDIATE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
If the application of Section 146(2) is not an ideal solution we can use it as a guide. Could this be a solution to the stalemate contrived by the current regime? If so, maybe there should be a constitutional amendment to accommodate the situation that might arise if there is an inconclusive election. Instead of the three months specified in Section 146 (2) it should say until the elected successor to the Office of the President emerges. There should be a second constitutional amendment that would prevent the multiplicity of political parties and of candidates at the national level. We must limit the number of parties and candidates if we are to make the Presidential election meaningful. We must restrict the two party-formations to the Presidential election and three to state level and many parties to the local government. As a member of the founding fathers of the Presidential System, a multiplicity of parties and candidates was not anticipated for the smooth running of the Presidential system. This was responsible for the realignment of political forces after the first election in 1979 and in 1983 that eventually led to the NPN and PPA. I was a witness to how this was formalized by President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida as the two party system – SDP and NRC in 1989. The reasons that informed the two party system have not changed and they are more obvious today with the resurgence of turn by turn and zonal demands that were resolved in the past. For a smooth administration of the Presidential election, Nigeria needs two mega-parties. We are not helping INEC by arming it with what is not workable. The prevailing number of parties is a recipe for disaster and stalemate. Now that the PDP has become the instrument of a third term project, the factionalization of the party into a third-term and anti-third term would continue. That could lead to a realignment of political forces that would take the anti-third term forces into another political formation. This is going on. Would President Obasanjo handover to a non-PDP formation if it produces Atiku or IBB? This is what these democrats will have to work against. The third amendment I am proposing is for the country to go back to what I called the Bangladesh Formula in the past. That precludes the government in power from being a manager and a candidate of an election at the same time. Now that President Obasanjo refuses to be a lame duck President, we should avoid a situation that encourages the like of OBJ that sees the country and the political order as inextricably tied to his life. We need a President who would in future see the election to choose his successor as independent of his life. What Nigeria needs today is a lame duck administration that would guarantee a level playing field to all candidates within his party and between his party and other parties. Nigeria is not going to have any of these under President Obasanjo who wants to be a life leader of his party on the erroneous assumption that his party would continue to win the Presidential election as along as he is alive. How is this different from the Life President in Africa of yesteryears? We should avoid the practice of having the successor to the Life Leader of the party as his “errand boy” contrary to the oaths in Schedule Seven of the 1999 Constitution. I am appealing to the Nigerian people, the political class, and the pro-democracy organization in Nigeria and in the international community that 2007 may not be realizable. The nation swoops in danger. The warming signs are there of an imminent backsliding into a one man rule. A Stitch in time saves nine!
OMO OMORUYI |