So many articles have been written while all shades of opinion are flying around as to why IBB should not return to Aso Rock. Really, I was actually one of those pundits who predicted that the Minna hill-top General would attempt to rule Nigeria again.

Myself and other like minds projected that come 2007, President Obasanjo would graciously handover the mantle of rulership to IBB based on an earlier agreed covenant which propelled OBJ from prison to presidency. This postulation was vehemently attacked by many while others only expressed their apprehension and prayed that it never happen.

As of today, whatever deal that had existed between OBJ and IBB may not be the grand design anymore owing to the fact that the political playing field seems to be too bumpy now for a bold move by anyone to automatically endorse and install Babangida. Some political observers have concluded that the odds against an IBB presidency actually gave birth to the third term agenda and the failure of the move has in turn reinvigorated the desire by Babangida to place his bet on 2007. If you ask me, attempts to return IBB to the presidency was the plan C and that comes after it dawned on the hawks that the nation may not be plunged into turmoil as anticipated.   

News about OBJ’s clandestine endorsement of any candidate for now is also a ruse, rather, he’s going to encourage all the diverse interests to vie for the presidency, with the hope that the heat of the jostle would eventually degenerate into chaos and pronto there won’t be elections. Therefore all the bravado by Adedibu, the Ibadan political thin god is an empty boast that OBJ had already secretly anointed a successor.

The factors against an easy pick of OBJ’s successor are glaring and they cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand. The North views OBJ’s eight years shot at the presidency as a fulfillment of the South’s turn of occupying Aso Rock. Listen to the likes of Senator Jubril Aminu who declared that the PDP would automatically lose the 2007 presidency, if a Northern candidate is not nominated. If the likes of Governors Abdulahi Adamu, Maikarfi Adamu Muazu always pretend to be yes men to OBJ, the truth is that they believe in their hearts that it’s the turn of the North to call the shots again. Apart from the politicians, the corps of retired Northern generals led by IBB are out to champion the Northern cause and this does not leave out someone like OBJ’s former security adviser, General Aliyu Gusau who is presently underground while plotting his strategies as a true intelligence guru. In OBJ’s heart of hearts, he wouldn’t mind handing over to a Southerner in 2007, but no one should forget about 1979, Shagari and the twelve two-third debacle, which reshaped the face of Nigeria till this day.

The uneasy calm in the Niger-Delta also remains a time bomb, which is capable of shaping the outcome of the 2007 presidential elections, as this group of people seems to be determined to stand tall and be counted in the scheme of things. In spite of their professed loyalty to OBJ, the movers and shakers of that region would go a long way to continue their funding of the militants in order to score a point. Even as OBJ has declared Fayose’s candidature an error by the PDP. The question is that, is it not a possibility that every elected member or appointee in PDP are all misfits including OBJ the self proclaimed party leader? So who is better than Babangida or who is qualified to succeed OBJ? His Vice President is already being characterized as a thief and almost all of the PDP governors were indicted by the EFCC for corrupt practices. OBJ’s advisers are not faring better, they are either illegally shipping money abroad or getting caught up in all kind murky situations.

Basically, IBB has the right as a Nigerian to vie for elective offices, even as we all know that his antecedents speak volume about what to expect. But the truth is that OBJ’s closest lieutenants including the so-called dark horses have proven to Nigerians that they are not qualified to run the country as well since they are always having their hands in the cookie jar.   The furor over IBB’s ambition is uncalled for and there is no reason for anyone to be apprehensive, after all, he is not attempting to replay 1985, when he toppled the Buhari/Idiagbon regime. Infact, IBB should be commended for inching forward to partake in a democratic process, whether he wins or loses is another ball game entirely.

But with the successful quashing of the third term agenda, one can safely conclude that Nigerians still have some steam in them to do the unexpected. By the way, the third term agenda looked so good that OBJ was probably so sure that it would scale through, such that he didn’t categorically deny or confirm his intention, therefore IBB should be allowed to express his desire just like any other Nigerian and the ultimate decision should be left to the Nigerian people to decide. Since IBB left in 1993, Nigeria has not really fared better, so whether you talk about Babangida, Abacha or Obasanjo, they are the same people with the same background and orientation, but with different faces. They had the best of their thinking lives in the military and they ran out of ideas when it came to governance, which of course is not their domain. Nigeria is passing through a transiting phase which would span across so many years; therefore we would have all kinds of nonentities as presidents and grapple with lots of nonsensical. Nigerians have been deceived so many times before and no one really expecting so much of a change in the way they loot the treasury and pillage the nation’s resources. Most of those presently poking their noses at the presidency have vowed to inherit OBJ’s kind of reforms and what does that mean for Nigeria in the near future? We shall have more increase in prices of petroleum products, staple food items wouldn’t be within the reach of the common man, unemployment level would increase, armed robbery would part of our daily normal life, stable electricity supply would remain a nightmare, criminal and politically motivated murder would continue to be the order of the day, the Niger-Delta would become a replica of Iraq, governors and other elected politicians would be forced out of office in a coup-like manner.

Technically, any presidential candidate who promises OBJ’s kind of reforms is coming to plunge the nation further into the abyss of crisis and we can hear this in the voices of the Odilis, the Attahs, the Marwas, the Adamus, the Babangidas and the rest of them.

Babangida for one has started marketing himself, first to the national assembly and then to the Nigerian people. A bad product remains a bad product and no amount of advertising can transform a bad product to a good one, therefore the onus is on the people to decide with wisdom, but the decision shouldn’t emanate from the PDP which is being speculated as having plans to disqualify IBB. However, if IBB emerges as Nigeria’s next president, no one should lose any sleep over that, since we know that the nation will not be liberated from the woods until the hawks are out of circulation. For the situation can only grow worse as there is no light yet at the end of the tunnel.