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The race to Government House Yola, will undoubtedly going to be among the hottest battle to be fought in the coming governorship elections in Nigeria; the reason is obvious, even to a layman. Political pundits are of the opinion, whilst in most states of the federation, the usual political factors are the indices that will shape the politicking and determined winners and losers in the governorship race, in Adamawa, apart from such indices, many factors will determine the winners and losers, and one unique aspect of such factors are, some of them are beyond the sway of the politicians.
The political battle for the governorship election in Adamawa state, will be a battle of ‘checkmating’ between the PDP and AC, but as earlier mentioned, some factors which in many states of federation are not so much worth considering, will play a determinant role of which political party will have the edge in Adamawa state- the civil service in Adamawa will be one of such factor, the rural setting of Adamawa state make the civil servants to be like ambassadors of their respective community , most communities see their ones in the civil service as their eyes and ears; what these people told their kinsmen at villages, it is taken sealed! Thus, the civil servants despite their infinitesimal numbers have a tremendous ability to decide the path of voting, and this is likely be advantageous to the AC, as the current PDP leadership have vowed to reverse the Adamawa state government monetization policy which saw many civil servants owning houses of their own, and the AC governorship standard bearer being a product of the civil service will enjoy remarkable goodwill from his comrades, having spent most of his career as a civil servant, he will not even think of reversing the monetization policy.
The PDP is presenting Admiral Murtala Nyako as its flag bearer; Admiral Murtala was a military Governor some thirty years ago and was deputy joint chief of staff during the IBB days, despite this his intimidating credential , the man is from top to bottom not a politician both in temperament and disposition, and his selection as PDP flag bearer has done what pundits called ‘confirming the long period of public suspicions’, the PDP hierarchy led by senator Jibril Aminu have made it clear that their choice for governor will be an ‘unadulterated pullo’ so the imposition of Admiral Murtala Nyako, but one interesting thing is, there is no single ethnic group that constitute more than 25% of the population in Adamawa state, one does not need any extra special research to prove it, but looking at the representations in the Adamawa House Of Assembly is sufficient; there is no single ethnic group that has near to 26% of members in the 25 member House Of Assembly; Yola-North, Yola-South, Song, Maiha, Toungo and Shelleng have members from the Fulani extraction, Ganye, Jada and Koma have Chamba, Numan, Girei and Lamurde have Bwate, Demsa have Mbula, Mubi–North and Madagali have Margi, Mubi-South have Gude, Guyuk have Lunguda, Binyere constituency have Nyandam, Mayo-Belwa have Hausa, Hong and Uba-Hilde have Kilba, Gombi have Nganda, Fufore and Vere have Vere, while Michika have Higi; one thing worth grabbing attention is, in each of these constituencies there are three to four others ethnic groups that have the capacity to represent these constituencies, except that of Numan , Demsa, Lamurde, Michika and Madagali where for the next hundred years their representation may not change.
The Action Congress is presenting Ibrahim Bapetel as its governorship candidate, probably AC’s calculations are: Bapetel will be acceptable to other ethnic groups apart from his; being a grandson of the renowned Abban-Yaji of the Bata tribe; his never being a controversial person and having grown amidst a complex community of Jimeta, where there is ‘concoction’ of diverse people, but the bottom-line of the current political permutation is, one’s personality will account to only attracting merely 10%-15% of votes, but what the voting public will be greatly inclined toward to, is the general public impression surrounding the platform of which the candidate is running on, and the personalities steering the party- these are the most central keys that would shape the voting pattern in Adamawa state. The pre-current political situation style of voting in Adamawa state differs from one local government area to other; but now, it seems there is a general convergence towards a particular basis for voting from all local government areas; and the current PDP’s attitude, assertions and actions are the origin for this tailored movement toward a particular end, by the people,
Politics is like science, we must understand the differences between a laboratory and a workshop; the AC in Adamawa state is from ward to state levels, 98% made of structures of the original PDP, while the current PDP is 2/3 made of a faction that entered the ANPP in 2003. The PDP is trying to seize power from the Atiku/ Boni political group, in a normal sense one expects the PDP to be on the offensive but amazingly the PDP appeared to be on the defensive; this is merely due to PDP’s miscalculation of applying ‘yesterdays political methodology to a what is a surely different today’- the PDP stand that the next governor of Adamawa have to be from a particular ethnic group, their desire to withdraw the class of some traditional councils, and their anti-civil servant posture, these has put the party at worlds-apart with the reality, but positioned the Action Congress in a enormous comfortable position, and with Atiku being a member of the AC, if Ibrahim Bapetel of the AC can secure an open support from Governor Boni Haruna, he can sit at his home with his legs crossed and have a landslide victory even without campaigning.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta
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