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The North and the Poverty Phenomenon By Salihu Moh. Lukman
“Very high levels of poverty is essentially a Northern Phenomenon”! That was the judgement of Prof. Charles Soludo while making his presentation at the Stakeholders Meeting on the Economy on Tuesday, January 9, 2007. The three northern regions were reported to have an average poverty incidence of 70.1% as compared to 34.9% for the three southern regions. Of course, more than anything, what justifies the assertion that ‘very high levels of poverty’ is a northern phenomenon has to do with the fact that the 10 states with the highest incidence of poverty are all northern states, with Jigawa top on the list with 95%. This contrast with the fact that the 10 states with the lowest incidence of poverty are all southern states with Bayelsa reportedly having the best comparative record of 20% incidence and Edo with the highest incidence of 33.1%.
Interestingly, that was the very day the details of the 2006 census was released, which also showed that majority of Nigerians are in the North. So far, only the census appears to receive attention of the public. This is understandably the case because it will be the determinant for resource allocation to states and local governments from the federation account. The questions may be asked, would increased allocation to states and local governments reverse this ugly picture? In what ways have previous allocations impacted on the welfare of the people? Why is poverty ‘essentially a Northern phenomenon’ anyway? What do these poverty figures presented by Prof. Soludo really mean? Who cares if poverty is high? What is the prospect for reduced poverty in the coming years?
While the analysis of why poverty is ‘essentially a Northern phenomenon’ can be approached subjectively and in some respects in a biased way, it needs to be stated that although Prof. Soludo used the figures to arrive at that conclusion, it is hardly contestable. Perhaps, the fact that not any section of the public or even the media is contesting the Soludo’s figures more than a week after, demonstrates the legitimacy of these figures. Unfortunately, this legitimacy, in itself, does not necessarily translate to a commitment to fight, reverse or lower poverty in the North, or indeed in any part of the country. In any event where are all those champions of sectional interests, particularly those who clamour for the North? Are these figures not thunderous enough to warrant some attention?
Ordinarily, one would imagine that analysts or activists would find basis for policy contestation. May be the figures have sent shock waves and our crusaders of regional interests are yet to recover from the shock. While we await their recovery, in simple terms, Prof. Soludo’s statistical revelation means that 70% of the people living in the north live below $1 per day, which is equivalent to N129 per day. In other words, these are people who earn below N3,870 per month. This is less than the N5,500 legislated national minimum wage. Taking the 2006 census, just released, it means that 52,592,641 citizens living in the North are poor.
By every measure of analysis, it is very worrisome that these poverty figures are not being discussed, at least not in the media. One thing that is certain is that comparative analysis of poverty incidence tends to undermine the severity of poverty. In some instances, it also takes us farther away from the causes of poverty and how to eradicate it. In the Nigerian situation, what is also very clear is that high incidence of poverty is considerably the result of poor management of resources at all levels.
In analysing the incidence of poverty, particularly as it relates to the critical issue of economic activities, two submissions made by Prof. Soludo are important here. The first is that the North (excluding FCT) ‘have less bank deposit than South-South zone’ alone. Secondly, the North (again excluding FCT) accounts for approximately only 10.75% of deposits and 8.5% of bank loans. While this may not present an objective measure of the level of economic activity, it, to some degree, is indicative of the volume of formalised activities.
Moving away from comparative analysis, we need to focus ourselves to very specific issues. Whether Prof. Soludo, or anybody for that matter, is credited with these figures is immaterial. The challenge is that they are real and therefore what is it that can be done to release the over 52 million people living in the North out of extreme poverty trap? This will require some soul searching.
Looking at just the volume of resource allocation that would have come to the North from the federation account, it is disturbing that huge public funds were, and are still being, diverted away from addressing fundamental needs of the people. As a result, rather than public expenditure contributing to increasing human welfare development, it compresses the space for income earning opportunities and therefore widens the frontier of poverty.
Using the case of Kaduna State for instance, with incidence of something in the region of 71.1%, resource management in the last seven years is to say the least scandalous. Although allocations from the federation account have been on the increase, it clearly has not change significantly the poverty profile of the zone over the years. Poverty incidence in the region is reported to have reduced to 71.1% from the 1996 figure of 77.2%. Revenue allocation from the federation account between May 2003 and June 2006 to Kaduna State Government alone cumulatively came to N67.88 billion. The 23 local governments in the state received N60.8 billion within the period. May be this allocation is the saving grace; otherwise the incidence of poverty would be as high Jigawa, if not more. Perhaps not!
The Jigawa case is, for want of a better expression, quite criminal. Using the much contested 2006 census figures, with 95% incidence, it simply means that 4,131,217 out of the 4,348,649 citizens are poor (earning below N3,780 per month). In other words only 217,432 citizens in the state live above N3,780. This may as well be less than the total number of citizens in formal employment across both the public and private sectors in the state. This may tempt us to doubt whether it represent the reality.
Whichever way it is approached, 95% incidence is tragic and would not be without basis. Rather than giving into any form of temptation, it would be more useful to begin to investigate the cause of this nasty poverty profile and what actions are required to eradicate it. The immediate question that comes to mind here is to what extent has the much talked about Jigawa ICT project contributed to the 95% incidence? Contribution might appear indicting but how else can one ask the question?
Since Prof. Soludo has argued that ‘poverty is strongly correlated with level of education’, the best way to pose the question, perhaps, may be to find out from the state government the extent to which the Jigawa ICT project negatively impacted on education? I can not attempt any guess because my knowledge of Jigawa State is very limited and therefore will leave the discussion at that level and move on to Kaduna State.
Happily, Kaduna State is not ranked among the 10 states with highest poverty incidence. Sadly though, it is also not among the 10 states with the lowest incidence. Not even the advantage of being the seat of the first Northern regional government, which made it possible for the state to inherit some level of infrastructural development, could pull the state out of the 70% tragedy zone. Among what may be regarded as the first generation states, namely Kaduna, Oyo, Enugu and Lagos, Kaduna and Lagos did not make it in the list of the 10 states with the lowest incidence. These are states that have been seats of either regional or state governments since the colonial era.
Whatever may be the ranking of Kaduna State, poor management of resources is certainly a contributory factor. Taking the 7 years Progress Report of the state government as advertised in the Newswatch of October 16, 2006, titled ‘Democracy Dividends in Kaduna State’ 73% of the N59 billion capital expenditure for the period went to the construction of roads and bridges. Healthcare, water resources and education accounted for respectively 7%, 4% and 13%. We ordinarily should not quarrel with these allocations if there are no competing needs for expenditures in areas of human capital development.
Assuming our healthcare delivery, education, water supply, etc. are adequate and functional, high allocation to roads and bridges would be justifiable. Assuming too that this is an exaggerated way of assessing the government and evaluating its activities, what of the numerous deductions from local government allocations? The issue of management of these funds may as well be taken for granted.
Whatever is the attitude, the deductions, in themselves, question any claimed commitment of the state government on the issue of service delivery and welfare improvement for the people. Take the case of the so-called millennium hope project managed by the wife of the governor. In June 2006 alone, the sum of N1.05 million was deducted from the allocation of each of the 23 local governments in the state. How is this millennium hope project meeting basic needs of the citizens of the state? Why is it a priority? I am sure the state government would have every justification for this deduction at source.
Another worrisome deduction from the allocation of the local governments, all from the June 2006 allocations is that a total sum of N164.9 million was deducted allegedly for the rehabilitation of tractors. N19.3 million was deducted from Soba local government alone. One question that may have to be answered by the state government is how many tractors were rehabilitated and what was really the state of these tractors. Wouldn’t it have made more economic sense to use this amount to advance other agricultural needs of farmers directly?
The point here is; what is the opportunity cost of expending N19.3 million, in the case of Soba local government, and N164.9 million, in the case of all the 23 local governments, on the repairs of tractors? Assuming the local government voted the sum of N100,000 to each farmer towards procurement of fertiliser, improved seedlings and pesticides, with N19.3 million, 193 farmers in Soba local government alone would have benefited. For all the 23 local governments, 1,649 farmers would have benefited. It would be interesting to check how many farmers benefited from the tractor repairs project imposed on the 23 local governments by the state government. What was the expected increased farm output?
The June 2006 deductions are by far considerate because at least the local governments were able to have some of the allocated revenue. This is not to be the case with respect to the excess crude allocation released in October 2006 as all the allocated N1.7 billion to the 23 local governments was withheld by the state government through different forms of deductions.
Regarding the whole question of resource management and utilisation, take the case of the privatisation of Zarinjet, a sringe & needle manufacturing company located in Zaria which is now shut down because of dispute over privatisation process of the company between the state government and Dangote, the winning bidder. This is a case of a company that is healthy, which is about the only such company in the country with export capacity. The company has been shut down for more than 2 years now and all the workers laid off not because of any demand or supply problem.
Another case of misplaced priority is the huge capital expenditure that went into the setting up of the state university, which ordinarily would have been applauded. But given the poor state of education at lower levels, one wonders why the resources were not invested in primary and secondary education. This is because at the moment the state is not able to fill its quota in Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria due to low exams pass rate. This could only be justifiable if the objective of setting up a state university is to bring down entry requirement below the national standard so as to ensure that even students that have not pass SSCE could gain admission. It may be of interest to know how many per cent of the state university admissions come from the state. Given the current exam pass rate, it may not account for more 30%, except if the admission requirement is lowered. Even then, majority may have to be admitted to read religious studies, languages and arts.
In relation to education, there are very interesting cases of local governments taking away spaces reserved for games in primary schools to build shops. Two shop complexes are near completion in Zaria as a result of such crazy decision. These are located in Baban Dodo, Zaria city and Kofan Doka. In the case of Kofan Doka primary school, apart from taking away part of the school and constructing a shop complex, there is an interesting notice on the wall of one of the classroom blocks to the effect that ‘do not play football in this school, it is highly prohibited’. This is said to be police order!
The only consolation is that the primary school host daily football practices, competition, etc. This notwithstanding, the mere fact that such a notice could be inscribed with paint by whoever on the wall of one of the classroom blocks, and allowed to stay by the management of the school to some extent is suggestive of some violation of basic school requirement, which ordinarily could undermine the development of children.
There is the interesting scenario of dualising Zaria city road when the city has been without water all these years. In fact, the Zaria water project, valued at over N1 billion, awarded more than six years ago is yet to provide water to the people. The reality is that the project is a stop-gap measure as a lasting solution would require expansion work on Zaria dam, which is estimated to cost about N6 billion. In the circumstance, why shouldn’t the government prioritise the expansion work on the Zaria dam?
Talking of construction work, there is also the interesting decision of the state government to expend N981.7 million for the construction of Makarfi City Layout Bridge. This is a city that has no river, lake or any form of water flow passing across the city. For the purpose of analysis, let us even concede to the state government that there is a need for such a bridge, does the traffic flow in Makarfi City demand this huge public investment on a bridge? If so, what is the expected return on this public investment?
My suspicion is that the only justification would be that this is the home state of Governor Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi. Should this be the case, are there no better ways of rewarding the diligent people of this promising city? For instance, wouldn’t it have been more rewarding if the whole N981.7 million is used for skills development, which could have had with it some credit incentives by way of provision of tools and equipments. This would have certainly gone a long way to provide direct economic assistance to citizens and many citizens of Makarfi would have been gainfully employed earning beyond N3,870 per month and therefore bring down the poverty level both in the city, the state and the north.
We can go on and on with the analysis. The objective is basically to focus attention to issues of poor resource management and how that could have reduced the North to poverty trapped zone. It is no use lamenting this reality. A related sad issue is also the fact that there is the entrenchment of values which is accelerating the process of deskilling many young people in the zone. This has to do with the attitude towards ‘get-rich-quick’ that made majority of young educated people to become speculators of all sorts – from hawking government LPO, to currency trafficking and to all sorts of petty trading. All categories of people, from university, polytechnics and higher education graduates to school drop outs, from skilled to unskilled individuals. It is like a general assembly whose meeting points are always the corridors of government ministries (from local to states and federal). In some cases they serve as fronts for public officials. Much clamour for support to north hardly go beyond allocation of government jobs and contracts to these categories of people, which is always inflated.
The fundamental issue is; are we likely to witness any changes, which could impact positively on the welfare of the people of the North and perhaps bring down the poverty levels in the zone? It is most unlikely. This is because for any change to happen there has to be some indication of commitment to effect it. Again using Kaduna State as a reference point, there is nothing to suggest the existence of a programmatic approach to institute any form of action to eradicate poverty.
It is my hope that I am wrong in this assessment. If however, this assessment is right, nobody should shed any crocodile tears. What is required is organisation and taking proactive steps to engage our government and block all the wastes in public resource management. This is not impossible. Looking back into the history of the North, it is blessed with experiences and traditions that could confer capacity to pull the people and the zone out of poverty. The success story of Northern Element Progressive Union (NEPU), the Borno Youth Movement (BYM) and United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC), etc. are there to inspire us.
Salihu Moh. Lukman Movement for a Better Future No. 15, New Jos Road Kofan Doka Zaria
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