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Wait-and-See Permutations on 2007 Elections By Abdullahi Lamido Mohammed Samaru Zaria, Kaduna State
Human existence can not be silent, nor can it be nourished by false words, but only by true words, with which men transform the world… men are not built in silence but in word, in work, in action - reflection-------- Paulo Freire
The building blocks of humanity should constitute words, work, action and reflection these prerequisites are inordinately low in the psyche of the Nigerians, such that the least requirement which is words to describe our demands and predicaments, let alone act towards attaining them, are lacking. Nigerians are having less and less say in the politics of their country. The decisions taken by politicians on their behalf, which shapes their lives and determines their future and of generation yet unborn, are taken not for the betterment of the majority, but for the interest of a handful. Political decisions determines the quality of a people’s live, as such their consent and knowledge of what leaders the political parties will bequeath on the nation and what impact the decisions and policies of these emerging leaders will have on them, is of utmost importance. The road leading to the decision of who contest and who does not, have been hijacked by a minority. This minority who constitute party executives wield so much power, trying to exceed that of the electorate, is unhealthy. In healthy democracies around the world the door way to elections are not narrow, but in the case of Nigeria the door way is constricted and in some instances blocked, such that credible candidates are denied the opportunity to contest, rather personal and group interest determines candidates who contest. Group interest in Nigeria is not of collective good, but of criminal allegiance of “let’s get somebody who would, protect our interest and cover our dirty jobs” just as the PDP did by insisting on a state Governor to contest for the presidency.
This ganging up of like minds in the act of corruption using the platform of political parties, is a bad precedence for our democracy, it will not allow popular candidates from the constituency of the masses to emerge as the president of Nigeria, a Candidate who would be responsive to the social welfare and development of the nation and of classless citizens of Nigeria.
As the 2007 elections approaches a lot of Nigerians are uncertain as to what the shape of events will be. This uncertainty has elicited permutations on its possibility, impossibility and the envisioned difficulties to be encountered during the 2007 elections.
The cloud of uncertainty covering this important event where potency of the people lies, in deciding who; Preside over them, Govern them, Represent them, Decides for them, and even Counsel them, is bewildering. This cloud of uncertainty coupled with a misinformed populace has given rise to series permutations by different Nigerians, all in an effort to decipher what the government is really trying to contrive during the 2007 elections.
All these permutations are not mere conjectures of optimist, and pessimist of the 2007 election, they represent the various nuances of expectation and inferences drawn by Nigerians.
Some of these permutations are wait-and-see;
These and so many other weird permutations are made, by so many Nigerians whose otherwise senses of balanced reasoning have been eroded by the hunger and illiteracy which the President Obasanjo, Personalised Dictatorship Party {PDP} has brought about.
The permutation that President Obasanjo was scheming for a third term has been punctured by the heroic act of Nigerian legislature. Posterity will remember those legislators who staunchly opposed the third term agenda, as worthy politicians. Some say it is for the love of democracy, while others opine that it is the fear of the wrath of the anger of the electorate, or their late realisation that President Obasanjo will lose political relevance, if he insists on the third term agenda. Whatever led to the death of the third term agenda is a good omen for the Nigerian populace.
However, some political analyst warned that, it is not time to shout eureka, because there might be another plan. The plan is to plant a stooge who would do bidding of president Obasanjo after leaving office. The best of such candidate can only be found among state Governors, because majority, if not all the Governors have their hands soiled in the morbid waters of corruption.
In the same vein the Governors are denying the electorate the choice of who takes over from them, a right which the electorate used in bringing the governors to office. No state governor holds office by virtue of his personal will and strength; they hold their present offices by the collective interest and votes of the citizenry. This tyranny of the few over the majority cuts across the country. Almost all the governors lack the confidence of letting anybody becoming a governor if (s)he would not tow their line and provide cover for the damage they made of public treasury. The question is, if the legacy of these governors is not heinous, why are they afraid of who continues from where they stopped? Why are they hell bent in installing their stooges. All state governors who are confident of what they have done to their states should let the electorate decide for themselves, the wider interest of the electorate far outweigh selfish interest of the governors, whose interest is of having an immunity of probe from the next regime. This interest is not only selfish but an “espirit-de- tyrants” so as to legislate against any move towards investigating their activities and of incumbents in 2007 and beyond.
Lest I am accused of making generalisation, I deem it necessary to point out an exception to this tyranny of the minority; this exception is no other governor than Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Lagos state. Governor Tinubu has demonstrated good political demeanour, going by the way he handles the issue of who takes over from him. The number of contestants for the governorship of Lagos state, from the Governor’s cabinet far outnumbers that of any state in the country. What is more spectacular is the manner in which these commissioners honourably resign their appointments without any acrimony with the governor, really demonstrate the path of honour which governor Tinubu is threading, as the seeming most respected Yoruba politicians in the near future.
Back to the tyrannical governors in a democracy, a survey of contestants for Governorship in the country will show that each state governor is clearing the path for h(is)(er) stooge. Let’s start with Kaduna state, where Governor Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi is working assiduously towards installing his arch contractor Architect Namadi Sambo as a loyal dog to do his bidding come 2007. Where as governor Makarfi will battle to ensnare a senatorial seat from Dr. Dalhatu Sarki Tafida.
· THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE, IF 2003 REPEAT ITSELF
The desire to rig election and muzzle the voices of the opposition towards achieving a one party state is capable triggering violence. The political awareness of Nigerians has increase, proportionately to the suffering brought about by the PDP Government. Therefore, the electorate will vehemently resist all attempts to use law enforcement agents in emasculating and brutalising the electorate, as it has happened during the 2003 election, so as to rig Whatever happened during the 2003 elections, the repercussions are felt by all. The civilians and the law enforcement agents that contributed to the “success” of the PDP during the 2003 elections buy from the same market, enter the same bus, and pay the same price for whatever goods or services they consume. They are reaping the “dividends of deform”
The Repercussions
The deformation of the living standard of Nigerians through the PDP reform programmes and disregard for people’s welfare has created a nationwide dissatisfaction because of its mode of leadership which is insensitive to people’s welfare and desideratum. This neglect has triggered a chain of repercussions which have far reaching to the nation.
The situation in the Niger-Delta is a manifestation of their dissatisfaction on the neglect of their plight vis-à-vis the magnitude of revenue generated from the sale of crude oil, which has exponentially risen since 1999. This increase in revenue has not translated into increased poverty and suffering to Nigerians.
The surge in pipeline vandalisation and hostage taking by the Niger-Delta militia, in demand for increased government attention and presence in the Niger-Delta, is akin to taking the nation hostage, because of the multiplier impact their action have on other Nigerians.
The direction of blame is birational. One rationale for the blame is directed to the Federal government and the other to the Niger-delta militia. The people of the Niger-Delta should reflect and let critical reflection not activism guide their action. While the federal government should provide a platform for dialog not ransom payment
The Lack of Reflection
The ease with which Nigerians are manipulated and pitched against each other is preposterous; blames of the nation’s woe are shifted from individuals to tribal groups, to geographical divides, to arms of government.
The inability of the people to reflect on where the chain of blame of start, is demonstrated in the heaping of the whole blame on the Federal government, while the Local and state government have their own fair share of the blame. The Federal government can not treat the Niger-Delta militia as mere activist to be denied the opportunity of reflection and allowed the opportunity of acting. The government need to coordinate and direct a dialog between the Niger Delta people and the tiers of government where they would, in a conducive atmosphere, think their thought and say their words. The first thought that people of Niger Delta think, ought to be what did our council chairmen and state Governors do with the monthly allocation they receive from the federation account?
Revenue generation to the coffers of government from the sale of crude oil from 1999 to date, it has risen tremendously. It has been higher than any other time in the nation’s history. Revenue allocation to the 9 oil producing states of; Delta, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Ondo, Imo, Abia, Edo, and Cross River, stood at N886, 570.00 billion as at 2004. This amount excludes 13% derivation, allocation to Local government Council and of the Niger Delta Development Commission {NNDC}. With this amount, the development projects to be executed, in these states should be significant to impact positively on the lives of the people of Niger-Delta, but development projects were not executed by the Chairmen and State Governors and the Federal Government is not probing into the activities of the state governors and Council chairmen, as to ask what was done with the funds allocated to them. This same question should be directed to the Federal Government, of whether the projects it has executed are commensurate to the amount of revenue it has generated. Unless and until the Federal Government executes viable projects with the funds it has generated and insists the Council chairmen and state Governors do the same, the bulk of the blame will be on it.
Pitching the Militia against the Federal Government The fact that, Government and multinational oil companies pay ransom to the Niger-Delta militia for the release of hostages is creating a bad precedence to the activities of the militia. This precedence will be very difficult to reverse in the future, even if the demands of the people of the Niger-Delta are met, the militia will continue the act of hostage taking as a means satisfying their selfish and not communal desires of the mass of unemployed youths.
The starting point to finding a far reaching solution to the environmental degradation and social problems of the people of Niger-Delta is the militia should start by taking their Council chairmen and State Governors hostages, and not holding the nation to ransom. The ransom for the Niger-delta elected office holders will be evidence of what they have done with the funds they received from the federation Account since 1999. It is only when they have found their Council chairmen and State governors sufficiently accountable for what they received from the federation account, in terms of development projects, that they will resorting to taking on the federal government and the multinational oil companies operating in the Niger-Delta, rather than pitching the militia against the federal government, while the Council chairmen and state government embezzle their revenue allocation, and get away with it.
DEPLETING V.P. ATIKU ABUBAKAR’S SUPPORT BASE
One other factor which the wait-and-see permutation holds is that, all those Governors being impeached have immediate or remote affiliations with vice president Atiku Abubakar, whose candidacy the presidency is opposed to, and would do anything possible to reduce him to infamy, and finally frustrate him politically.
The script being acted out by the Presidency and the PDP is to sponsor the impeachment of those Governors that did not lend their support to the third term tenure extension agenda. Their intent is that, if their gimmick goes through a “suitable” replacement will be installed for the 2007 election in States such as; Anambra, Ekiti, Bayelsa, Plateau and other state where the crevice for impeachment of the governors is not yet available, but the hope for rigging is nursed.
The scheming of P D P in states such as; Anambra state, PDP will take back its seat and Chief Andy Uba will be there by 2007. In plateau with Chief Joshua Dariye as Governor Senator Mantu’s elective political ambition is dead. To put life back to Senator Mantu’s political ambition, Chief Dariye has to be impeached, as he has since been, for Mantu to contest whatever office he intends to contest in 2007 elections.
If the plans PDP fails, due to resistance from Nigerians, such is capable of leading to a state of emergency in the country. This created state of emergency will provide the lee way for president Obasanjo and his cronies to extend its tenure beyond 2007, and install and perpetuate his henchmen in office, and rule the country by cronyism.
ELECTRONIC VOTING IS AN INTENT TO RIG ELECTION
The public is disturbed and confused by the insistence of INEC in the use electronic voting during the 2007 elections; this insistence is ambiguous and smacks of intent to rig election despite the clear indication that INEC is not technically capable of doing so, even if its motives of doing so are clear. Such permutations are rife since the INEC’s “independence” is questionable because it has not been given the autonomy to operate, such that it will win the confidence of the opposition, as to accept outcome of elections, even if they lost. The intent of INEC can not be more than that of conducting free and fair elections; but it is not the machine that ensures free and fair elections, rather it is the people. Whenever election is rigged, it is with collusion of INEC officials, in collaboration with law enforcement agents, who molest anybody who dare question their action.
In a recent survey polls using machines in the USA, where they are more technically capable than INEC, fraud was committed, Santa Fe New Mexican, edition of Thursday 07 September 2006 reports that;
The owner of Data USA Inc., a company that conducted political polls for the campaigns of President George W. Bush, US Sen. Joe Lieberman and other candidates, pleaded guilty to fraud for making up survey and poll results… Assistant US Attorney Edward Chang said on several occasions when the company was running up against a deadline to complete a job, results were falsified. Sometimes, the respondent's gender or political affiliations were changed to meet a quota, other times all survey answers were fabricated.
The above is happening in a country where the rate of literacy, political awareness and technology is higher than Nigeria, where political awareness and education of the populace is numbed by ignorance, unemployment and poverty.
THE WAY FORWARD
“Power to the people” has been the antithetical sloganeering of the PDP, over the years, it has been able to deplete the power of the people through its reform or to state it more aptly deform policies, which has left many Nigerians more: poorer, malnourished, homeless and unemployed than it has met them before 1999.
Power lies in the electorate, a better future depends on how they thoughtfully use their votes towards enthroning responsive leaders, not voting leaders who would buy their way, they would be deaf and dumb to public demands, and beyond caution.
For entrenched PDP Governors, the message is even clearer. They have proven their inability to change with the times, so the times will change them.
The fact that, the Judiciary and the law enforcement agents are not acting on behalf of the law and they are not interested in punishing the guilty, instead, they work to political order, has worsened the matter. They have high stakes in our search for good governance, their neutrality as umpires during the 2007 elections would be to the gumption of the nation. Only in this way can the people be made to believe that their future is both subject to their own ability to change it and worth the risk their effort will entail.
Human existence can not be silent, nor can it be nourished by false words, but only by true words, with which men transform the world… men are not built in silence but in word, in work, in action - reflection -------- Paulo Freire
Abdullahi Lamido Mohammed Samaru Zaria, Kaduna State
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