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2007 Not Primed to Fail By Ibrahim M. Attahir Esq.
I read the cover story of Sunday Trust of January 28th 2007 titled: “2007 Primed to fail? Top US official, NGO raised alarm”. The story was attributed to two sources: the erstwhile US National Director of Intelligence, Dr Negroponte and report of a study commissioned by United States Institute of Peace (USIP). According to Negroponte, “Nigeria’s fragile democratic transition is in danger of collapsing in the coming months”. As for the report of USIP, it was based on the history of elections in Nigeria as witnessed in 1964/1965, 1979, 1983, 1999 and 2003 and concluded that: “The result is that the outcome of elections has been the subversion of democratic process rather than its consolidation”. The report further narrowed down to 2003 elections and said: “In 2003, Nigeria conducted the second general election since return to civilian politics in May 1999. Those elections were almost as contentious and the infamous 1983 elections that precipitated the collapse of the Second Republic”.
After reading the story I began to wonder whether the prediction that 2007 is primed to fail was as a result of ignorance or sheer mischief. I however settled for the latter. Negroponte is said to be a well-experienced US diplomat. Such a personality cannot be expected to venture into uninformed comments on an issue of such importance whether it is in his official or personal capacity. Similarly, USIP is supposed to be a credible NGO and will not be expected to dabble into such issues ignorantly. Therefore if it is a mischief, a typical western propaganda against Nigeria, it is incumbent on not only on Nigerian leadership or government but also on any patriotic Nigerian citizen to react. The story is not aimed at tarnishing the image of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo or his government alone. It is also capable of portraying the entire country and its people as always incapable of conducting credible elections.
It is true that in course of our history as a nation we had elections that were followed by national crises and sometimes resulting into collapse of the government as in 1964/1965, 1979/1983 and 1993. But the country never failed altogether. It rather came out of those crises waxing stronger and more cohesive. We even had civil war traceable to the 1964/65-post election crisis. Yet we survived the civil war. Also in the aftermath of June 12th, 1993 elections, the country nearly disintegrated. We however survived the debacle. What is interesting is that in all our periods of national crises, we were the ones that solved our own problems. Peace keeping force was never deployed to Nigeria from any country to restore peace. Our capability of solving our problems is evidence that Nigeria and its democracy have come to stay.
It should be noted that national crises and civil wars are not peculiar to Nigeria. Many other nations in both ancient and modern times, the US inclusive have had their fair share of such crises and civil wars and only few failed as a result. Even the few that failed, you find that the failure was more of foreign conspiracy than internal inability. But Nigerians are wiser despite our diversity. No Nigerian individual or group will conspire with any country to invade Nigeria. We are not Iraqi Shiites that welcomed the occupation of their country in the name of fighting a “dictator” (apologies to Adamu Adamu and Dr Tilde). The Iraqis now know better whether the US has brought them democracy, freedom and peace or otherwise. Thanks to Kofi Annan for informing us that Iraq was better-off under the “dictator”. The Americans should now know better that it takes the capacity of a dictator to maintain a united and peaceful Iraq. Negroponte should leave us alone.
I quite agree that there was massive rigging in the 2003 elections but democracy did not fail. It has therefore defied the 1983 experience. The allegation of rigging was resolved in the most democratic way possible anywhere in the world. Those that lost elections headed for tribunals and abided by the verdicts in the larger national interests. The US also has had its own experience of election rigging and what those who alleged rigging did was they headed for the courts. By the way, does the US have any moral ground to use the rigging in 2003 elections to predict the collapse of our democratic structures? As far as I am concerned the US is a co-conspirator in the whole affair. Otherwise, what did it do during or after the rigging to tell its perpetrators to return the mandate to its owners? It just looked the other way while the riggers had their way.
It is also hypocritical for US to question our own democracy when some of its best friends are the worst military dictators or monarchs in the world. On the forthcoming 2007 elections, it is surprising for US to say that because of the crisis in Niger Delta or the allegations of plans to rig the elections that the situation will lead to collapse of democracy in the county. It is true that people have expressed concern about the preparedness of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct credible elections. However, if the US was able to supervise election in Iraq despite the near-civil war situation in that country and does not want us to believe that democracy is failing in Iraq, why Nigeria? The crisis in Niger Delta is not a crisis in every part of Nigeria. Even in Niger Delta, it is not all parts that are boiling as in Iraq. The militants in Niger Delta are wise. They know whom they attack and why they attack them.
The ability of Nigeria to get out of the third term (Tenure Elongation) crisis has also shown that we are capable of handling our crises and solving our problems. Our democratic institutions are up and doing. The National Assembly has shown that it is representative of the generality of Nigerians. The judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court, has more than ever before shown that it is capable of playing its constitutional role of impartial arbiter and will not tolerate any attempt to truncate the democratic process. Similarly, the National Judicial Council is alive to its responsibility as the regulatory body of the judiciary. Its recent sanctions on some judicial officers that played into the hands of selfish politicians are remarkable.
I am not in anyway holding brief for the administration of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. It has those charged with the responsibility of its defence. I am also not unmindful of the many blunders of the administration. As a lawyer, I easily remember the way and manner the administration committed some legal blunders that one wonders whether they take action before seeking legal advice. Some of their legal blunders include the declaration of return to status quo during the Shari’a crisis bearing in mind that the states that adopted the Shari’a legal system did so by duly passing legislations to that effect. The Federal Government again purportedly banned Hisbah corps of Kano State also duly backed by the state legislation. Recently the attempt at sacking of the Vice President came as a surprise to many. In the case of impeachment of Governor Ladoja, the Federal Government tried to usurp judicial powers by issuing statements that looked like stay of execution of courts’ decisions. However, to be fair the government, whenever they make such blunders and later realize it, they soft-pedal and even retract like in some of the above examples.
The makers of our constitution know very well that there may be circumstances where those operating the constitution will abuse or act beyond their powers and that may lead to constitutional crisis. That is why the powers are separated among the 3 arms of government. Happily the legislature and the judiciary are not relenting in their role of checks and balance. Even in the US, they do have such executive excesses. What differentiates our own experience with the case of Guantanamo detainees and the US Supreme Court verdict on their status? Now, with the Guantanamo detainees and the Abu Ghraib prison scandals, the hypocrisy of the US of playing holier-than-thou has been exposed. The Americans should not pretend to anybody that they are better operators of democracy or respecters of human rights.
Finally, whatever any person may say on Chief Obasanjo, it is on record that he handed over power to civilians as Military head of state in 1979. There are more reasons now for him to hand over power as civilian ruler despite the temptation to manoeuvre. At his age he should not want the country to collapse in his hand, as the Americans want us to believe. I rather believe that he will never destroy any credibility he built for himself over the years. By the grace of God we will have a smooth transition whether the Americans like it or not. Nigeria is not primed to fail either in 2007 or beyond.
Ibrahim M. Attahir Esq. Majidadi Road Abuja Quarters Gombe, Gombe State. |