Obasanjo’s Legacy From a Realist Perspective

By

William Bassey

william_etim-bassey@canada.com

To Bobby Ikhazobor: “Thank God you are alive!

The ending may not have been what President Olusegun Obasanjo would have written, but a modest reform of the Nigerian economy and the empowering of a new political class is the story of his 8yr tenure.

As Olusegun Obasanjo prepares his hand-over notes quite possibly for the last time as President of Nigeria, he is in a familiar territory again and under the watchful eye of an inquiring public who now question his legacy in what some term a political backlash. In particular, the issue raised is if in reality his 8yr tenure has been good for Nigeria.

Such history may be difficult to determine at this moment because current research focuses on overlooked information that could be used to give new life to old embarrassments. Not nearly as well appreciated is the fact that while his approach was not sophisticated, it often got results for Nigeria, a feat that had eluded even the ingenious “IBB”. But let us start with the simple question: What is Obasanjo’s legacy?

Obasanjo: Good Intent, Unrealistic Expectations

It seemed sensible, in 1999, when Obasanjo was elected president of Nigeria to assume his policies would focus on improving the lot of Nigerians, who have endured economic underdevelopment and insecurity since independence, in 1960.

It seemed reasonable, in 2003, when he was re-elected president that he would reinforce the gains and re-dress the miscalculations of his first term as president. But by 2005, with the "third term" proposition raging and with daggers drawn and pens filled to tear into his record. Already a picture was emerging of a leader who had squandered his political goodwill that was lost in a thicket of controversies.

This scenario acquires a different shape, however, when examined from a realist point of view.

At the home front, Obasanjo's distinctive political economy of reform that was based on overcoming the resistance of vested interests crystallized during his second term in office. In time, capital movement within the economy has become liberalized, and the difference in efficiency between foreign managed and wholly indigenous enterprises is disappearing while growth in the private sector has strengthened the national economy. Now Nigerian businessmen and their foreign partners are much more realistic of what to expect

Further underscoring his achievements is the fact that institutional reforms have curbed waste of resources and repositioned the federal civil service. Obasanjo also made eradicating corruption a hallmark of his tenure as president. His anti-corruption campaign earned him some justifiable support. But it now makes charges of financial and ethical impropriety against him ironic.

Obasanjo's foreign policy strategy, which is, anchored on some of the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad) concept is even more remarkable. For example, besides his leadership role in mediation, and in negotiating peace treaties between the warring parties in Liberia, Cote D’ivoire, Dafur and even Guinea-Bissau, or his leading role in the international debt relief campaign.

 Bilateral and multilateral relations with countries such as South Africa, China, Canada and Equatorial Guinea have become strategically important for Nigeria. For example, South African companies have been successful in several sectors in Nigeria, including the hospitality, financial services, communications and energy sectors.[1] In reality, the concept of political economy now dictates Nigeria’s foreign policy relations in contrast to our historical past when we were considered one of Africa’s “benefactor states”, even when our economy was weighed down by external debt and structural underdevelopment.

Undeniably many of the problems, particularly those dealing with hard assets such as roads, provision of electricity and other public infrastructure could have been better managed. But It is also probable that new sets of problems that cannot be anticipated would have emerged.

My sympathy to the Opposition

The predicament the political “opposition” finds itself in can largely be attributed to disunity in purpose and fallings-out in their ranks. While the “opposition” had made it a habit of following unsuccessful electoral performances with unexpectedly successful recoveries, the recent electoral defeat marks the end that trend.

Indeed if they are looking for a grand-scheme consolation while they say the right things to the international community, they should perhaps consider the consequences in the context of our political history. But then again true democracy in reality accommodates more sinister and intrigue filled trade-offs than we care to readily admit.

In theory, democracy is simple. One man, one vote. It is in all the textbooks. But theoretical text on politics is not readily available when one needs them most. So all the squabbling about election rigging and political stifling should give way to the reality that political rigging is an unpleasant fact of political life, and that after it is all said and done, Shehu Musa Yar’Dua gained a legitimate win.

Pressure? What Pressure?

Olusegun Obasanjo has always been the subject of critics and admirers alike, each in their own way validating and invalidating him with their opinions. Like him or loathe him: he has changed Nigeria for good and forever. While many argue that the jury is still out on his legacy, history indeed will be kind to him regardless of how Shehu Musa Yar’Dua performs as president. One thing is certain; indeed, he is a true patriot who has put the Nigerian state above all interest no matter the odds or the situation.

Believing "the time has come" to pass on the political baton, he will share the largest stage of his entire life with Shehu Musa Yar’Dua at the Eagles Square, Abuja, come May 29 2007. It could not have been better scripted.

On an interesting side note, for those of you who worry about the seeming pre-dominance of the PDP in Nigerian politics. Fear not.  The evidence of history tells us that the PDP can “Never” rule forever. While power may corrupt, and absolute power corrupt absolutely. Power also is transient. Very transient. The evidence of history validates this fact. ww

William Ernest Etim-Bassey is the Executive Director of Neostrategyconsulting.