The Eight Years of Obasanjo’s Squandered and Missed Golden Opportunities

By

Dan Azumi Kofarmata

danazumikofarmata@yahoo.com

Friday, 18 May 2007

 

President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo - so far, has been the luckiest Nigerian (leaving or dead). For example, he is traditional Chief; a Five Star General; a civil war hero; a former federal commissioner (minister) and member of federal executive ruling councils under two defunct military regimes; a former second in command under the defunct military government headed by late General Murtala Muhammad; a former Head of State, Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria (1976 – 1979) after the assassination of General Murtala Muhammad; a one time condemned political prisoner under the defunct military government of late General Sani Abacha; a freed condemned political prisoner; a two-term Nigerian civilian President, Commander-in-chief, Armed forces of the federal Republic of Nigeria (1999 – 2007); a national and international statesman and a successful modern large-scale commercial chicken farmer and strategic investor etc. These in a nut shell, sums up the life history of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo.

 

Yet, upon all this catalogued impressive resume, Obasanjo’s last and probably his final public outing as a leader and head of government can best be characterized as catastrophic failure. The 8 years he served as Nigeria’s civilian President were nightmarish and can best be described as “government of the leaving dead” - using a borrowed statement from David Cameron (UK Conservative Party leader) while referring to the remaining last seven weeks of government of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the UK Labour Party leader who will step down as British Prime Minister on June 27, 2007. Why did this happen and how will the future remember President Chief Obasanjo?

 

Inordinate and blind ambition and greed – these few words can best be used to answer the above question. However, a deep analysis can explain clearly how and why this happened. First, it is not the length of time in office which matters but what he did and did not do in office during his 8 years tenure. Secondly, the quality and integrity in terms of accountability and transparency of what he did and the vision and maturity exhibited while providing leadership of the country counts in any assessment of his legacy.

 

Having said that, it is pertinent also to briefly examine the political history of Nigeria since independence to buttress some points here. For example, it is a known fact that once in office the first thing Nigerian leaders do is to whittle down drastically, the constitutional powers and authority assigned to the other tiers and layers of governance of the country. When the military is in power for instance, the first thing they do is to disband the parliament or National and State Assemblies and constrain the judicial arm of government while assuming supreme executive authority over everyone else.

 

Similarly, under Nigeria’s democratic experimentations since 1979, the executive arms of government both at the federal and state levels try as much as they can, to have domineering influence on the legislative and judicial arms of government. For example, from 1999 to 2007, almost all the State Governors exercised power and authority in their respective domains with very minimal oversight by the legislative arm of government.

 

At the federal level, the story is even worst. The reality is that what Nigeria went through during the 8 years of President Obasanjo’s supposedly democratic government was not fundamentally different from what Nigerians experienced during the over 35 years of military dictatorship in Nigeria since independence in 1960. The national assembly was treated with disdain by President Obasanjo and his cohorts. This is one of the reasons why we found ourselves in the present mess where for example, President Obasanjo can tyrannically stripped Nigerians of their hard earned civil liberties; democratic rights to freely elect their leaders and unleashed the worst form of excruciating and awful economic and social reforms in Nigeria since independence. By the way how can we run our country when we can’t even conduct credible elections? Therefore, the best starting point of assessment of President Obasanjo’s legacy is the April 2007 “charade” in the name of general elections.

 

No matter how one would like to put the blames for what a shambles that elections were on April 14, 2007 and April 21, 2007 respectively, the Presidency must be blamed squarely for shabby preparations, conduct and the outcomes of the elections. But should we be surprised? Of course not – it was continuing in the tradition of Nigeria’s previous elections set by our greedy and dishonest politicians and inept leaders. However people interprets the results of the shambled elections, it is clear that overwhelming Nigerians and the international observer groups have condemned the elections as severely flawed and do not meet the standards of acceptability anywhere in the democratic world and traditions.

 

Nevertheless, President Obasanjo and his cohorts are hell-bent on forcing the results of the charade on Nigerians. This has already opened the doors for protracted opposition against the in-coming governments both at the States and federal levels. But any attempt by the out-going and/ or incoming administrations to go against the wishes of the majority of Nigerians will be met with strong resistance from the opposition groups. Therefore, the April 2007 general elections (presently disputed in election petition tribunals nationwide) are President Obasanjo’s lowest point of the legacy he bequests to Nigeria.

 

The first positive legacy of Obasanjo’s 8 years that stands above all others, not begrudge even by Obasanjo’s fiercest critics is largely paying off our sovereign debts to the Paris and London Clubs of creditor nations. This singular act was achieved largely by the political will Obasanjo provided to his economic team led by the indefatigable World Bank Vice President whom Obasanjo convinced to relinquished her cosy prime position in Washington, D.C USA to join his cabinet as finance and later foreign minister – Mrs Ngoji Okonjo-Iweala. This showed the highest point and the very best of President Obasanjo’s legacy of 8 years of Nigeria’s leadership.

 

In between the above mentioned lowest and highest points of Obasanjo’s legacies are to be found other areas of achievements and failures as the case may be. However, within this spectrum,  there seems to be more failures than achievements. For example, some other major achievements and failures are highlighted and summarized in the table below. The table compares Nigeria’s pre-1999 conditions against the 1999-2007 period of Obasanjo’s presidency on a nominal scoring scale from  very poor (1 point), poor (2 points), good (3 points), very good (4 points) and excellent (5 points).

 

                            

S/N

Policy/issue area

Pre-1999

1999 – 2007

1.

Foreign debts/ Debts service management

 

Very poor (1 pt)

 

Excellent(5 pts)

2

Power sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

3

Telecommunications sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Good (3 pts)

4

Education sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

5

Health sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

6

Roads and Road transport sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

7

Aviation sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

8

Rail transport sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

9

Marine transport and ports

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

10

Postal services

Very poor (1 pt)

Good (3 pt)

11

Personal Security and safety

Good (3 pts)

Very poor (1 pt)

12

Agricultural/Rural sector

Poor (2 pts)

Very poor (1 pt)

13

Water sector   

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

14

Management of Niger Delta Restiveness

 

Poor (2 pts)

 

Very poor (1 pt)

15

Oil and Gas sector development

Poor (1 pt)

Poor (1 pt)

16

Oil and Gas revenues management: Transparency and accountability

 

 

Very poor (1 pt)

 

 

Very poor (1 pt)

17

Labour and industrial relations

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

18

Prisons reform

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

19

Police reform

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

20

Armed forces and Internal security

Good (3 pts)

Good (3 pts)

21

Housing & Urban sector

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

22

Banking/Financial sector

Good (3 pts)

Very good (4 pts)

23

Manufacturing sector

Poor (2 pts)

Very poor (1 pt)

24

Foreign investment & rating/Trade & Commerce

 

Poor (2 pts)

 

Good (3 pts)

25

Solid minerals sector

Poor (2 pts)

Poor (2 pts)

26

Tourism sector

Poor (2 pts)

Poor (2 pts)

27

Sports

Good (3 pts)

Poor (2 pts)

28

Drugs control/NAFDAC

Very poor (1 pt)

Excellent (5 pts)

29

Drugs control/NDLEA

Good (2 pts)

Good (3 pts)

30

Human & Child Trafficking

Very poor (1 pt)

Poor (2 pts)

31

Good governance and Corruption rating

 

Very poor (1 pt)

 

Poor ( 2 pts)

32

Human Rights record

Very poor (1 pt)

Very poor (1 pt)

33

Petroleum Products supply

Very poor (1 pt)

Poor (2 pts)

34

Pensions

Good (3 pts)

Poor (2 pts)

35

Foreign Affairs

Poor (2 pts)

Good (3 pts)

36

Employment/jobs

Poor (2 pts)

Very poor (1 pt)

37

Inflation level

Poor (2 pts)

Poor (2 pts)

38

Poverty

Poor (2 pts)

Very poor (1 pt)

39

Ethnic and Religious harmony

Good (3 pts)

Very Poor (1 pt)

40

Domestic debts payments

Poor (2 pts)

Good (3 pts)

 

 

It can be seen from the above table that President Obasanjo performed very poorly in about 80 percent of the selected policy or issue areas during the 8 years of his inept administration and leadership. The table is very simple and not based on any sophisticated statistical analysis but it provides an honest assessment that captures the feelings of the ordinary Nigerians; be they urban or rural duellers, rich or poor, elites or ordinary blue and/or white collar workers. If you ask most grown up Nigerians to rate President Obasanjo’s administration based on the above 40 selected policy and/or issues areas using the simple scoring system adopted here, you are likely to obtain a similar pattern of results produced in the table above; within a very small margin of errors and/ or deviations.

 

In retrospect, many Nigerians initially thought and believed that Nigeria was about to enter a new and better era with ushering of democracy in 1999 and with Chief Obasanjo leading the process. But the celebrations, excitements and goodwill were very brief and marred by the control-freakry and egocentrism that became the trade marks of Obasanjo’s presidency – a trait that would be visible throughout the 8 years that followed.

 

The table reveals a record of unprecedented serial policy failures across all sectors of the national political economy. For example, the woeful failure by President Obasanjo to tackle the problem of electricity supply is one of his greatest undoing. Trillions of naira have been injected into the power sector in the past 8 good years and yet, the sector today is worst than it was 8 years ago  Therefore President Obasanjo will be terribly remembered in this sector as a complete and total failure. He failed to break the legendry curse and jinx of “never expect power always” that characterize the sector.

 

Another major debit side of the ledger of Obasanjo’s legacy is the awful failure of his over hyped economic and social reforms to produce tangible dividends to the majority of Nigerians. Instead, the benefits of the reforms are largely concentrated in a few sectors of the national space economy and captured by a tiny class of business tycoons, those with the access to the corridors of power and those in strategic positions in the bureaucracy. As a result of this, the levels and intensity of hunger, poverty and unemployment and crimes have increased tremendously; with overwhelming Nigerians living on less than one US dollar a day according to statistics produced by the statistical authorities of Nigeria, the World  Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations agencies, among others.

 

For example, one of the major flagships of Obasanjo’s economic reform agenda is privatization of federal government owned enterprises across all sectors of the national space economy. However, the implementation of the privatization policy leaves much to be desired as all the choice companies, properties and businesses were auctioned off at ridiculous prices to family members, friends and cronies of the Presidency. Therefore the man who said his administration will not be business as usual got himself mired in allegations of sleaze and accused of abuse of office, nepotism and parochialism in his conduct of economic deregulation and liberalization policies. The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) scandal, corruption in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), sales of federal government owned residential houses and properties, Transcorp and Presidential Library debacles are just few examples of albatrosses hanging on Obasanjo’s legacy.

 

The rigid controlling from the command and control centre at Aso Rock executive desk of Mr President; the one-man knows it all government by Obasanjo in which he and he alone, initiates policies and determines who and how such policies are designed and implemented; thereby bypassing civil service convention, professional bureaucrats, technocrats and technical advisers. As a result of this, the formal procedures of governance were compromised in a number of instances. President Obasanjo’s direct control of Nigeria’s foreign Affairs and control of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources are good examples of his impulse to centralize and dominate governmental affairs at all times. That is why for example, since 1999 Nigeria did not have any well articulated and focused foreign policy anchored on any philosophical foundation.

 

Another major debit side of Obasanjo’s legacy is his tempestuous relationship with his Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. It all started on a very sound footing during the first term in office. Initially, their personal friendship and official relationship have been like no other in politics, as intimate and lasting as a marriage. In fact, at one time, Obasanjo likened the relationship to Auren Zobe, which, in Hausa means indissoluble marriage – until death does us apart! The budding relationship between the two national leaders was unusual because it drew on a sustained intimacy throughout the first term (1999 – 2003) compared with the fractious relationships existing between many State Governors and their deputies. But suddenly, the cordial relationship plunged and completely shattered before the very eyes of their friends, admirers and foes in politics and the public at large.

 

The roots of the sudden dissolution of the indissoluble Auren Zobe lie in 2003 when Vice President Atiku Abubakar encouraged by a large crowd of his friends, who are Governors, indicated his interest to contest the 2003 Presidential election; assuming President Obasanjo was not going for a second term in office based on an agreed one-term and power shift deal secretly sealed some time in 1999 between Obasanjo and some northern PDP politicians. Although Vice President Atiku Abubakar decided not to run for the presidency against Obasanjo in 2003 that was the time when both started to lose faith in their friendship and cordial relationship.

 

However, it was the ill-fated Obasanjo’s purported Third Term agenda that finally broke the camels back in their personal friendship and official relationship. President Obasanjo resented at the way Vice President Atiku Abubakar behaved on this matter. Therefore the Third Term debacle became the fault line of the cordial relationship existing between the duo; work with me and you will have my blessing, was Obasanjo’s message to his now recalcitrant Vice President. Deal or no deal, the rest is now history. This breakdown in the hitherto cordial relationship between them significantly impacted negatively in the current political quagmire the country is facing arising from the April 2007 flawed general elections. Hence this poses a great threat to peace and stability in Nigeria and its democratic experiment.

 

In conclusion, the table above shows that the catalogued serial policy failures far outweigh the very few policy achievements of Obasanjo’s 8 years in command and control of Nigeria’s political and economic arenas. Therefore, Obasanjo’s legacy is one that can be said to be a legacy full of failed promises and expectations to say the least. His successor must start from almost ground- zero rather than continuing with the existing failed policies and programmes