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A Tentative Analytical Evaluation of President Obasanjo’s Performance (May 1999- May 2007) By Emmanuel Ojameruaye
1. Introduction
As President Obasanjo prepares to “step out” of office after 8 years in the saddle, political pundits have been writing about his “legacy”. Others have been evaluating his performance. Some have been confusing or combining “legacy” with evaluation.[1] Most of the “assessments” have been rather subjective and suffer from two major defects. Firstly, some of them are not based on the promises President Obasanjo made, but on what the assessors expected him to do. A fair assessment must be based on what President promised or on his plans/budgets. Secondly, there are no well-defined benchmarks for the assessments. To be sure, it is difficult to conduct an objective assessment of performance of political office holders in the absence of well-defined and measurable performance indicators and time-bound targets.
In this paper, I will try to evaluate the performance of President Obasanjo based on some of the key promises he made during his first and second inaugural addresses to the nation in 1999 and 2003 respectively. The analysis is tentative and partial in the sense that it does not cover all the promises (and plans/budget) he made during his eight years in office[2]. The analysis is also subjective because President Obasanjo did not establish performance benchmarks for most of the promises he made in his two inaugural addresses. However, I have tried to be objective in assigning percentage scores for his performance by relying on some performance indicators, where available. In section 2 of the paper, I will present the key promises (in italics) made by President Obasanjo, assess how well he delivered on each of the promises and then award a percentage score. In section 3, I will find the average percentage score. This section is still work-in-progress. My ultimate aim is to use a “quasi-Delphi” technique[3] to obtain a near objective assessment of Obasanjo’s performance by inviting readers of this paper to submit their independent rating or score of the president in each of the “area of promise” to me at emmaojameruaye@yahoo.com . I will then find the average score in each area and the grand average score. I will also compute the standard deviation and coefficient of variation to give an indication of the disparity or spread of the scores and reliability of inferences that can be made from them. In section 4, I will draw some lessons to assist incoming President Yar’Adua in formulating his own agenda.
2. Promises and Performance
2.1 May 29, 1999 Inaugural Address
Promise 1: Leadership“I will give the forthright, purposeful, committed, honest and transparent leadership that the situation demands. I am determined with your full cooperation, to make significant changes within a year of my administration. Achievement: It is my opinion that in spite of many lapses, President Obasanjo provided better leadership during the past eight years than the preceding and military rulers. I also think he performed better than the Shagari’s administration on this score. However, the third-term agenda, his quarrel with his Vice-President, the poorly-organized elections and a few other missteps tainted the quality of his leadership. Overall, I will award him 60% on leadership.
Promise 2: Human Development“Together we shall take steps to halt the decline in the human development indices as they apply to Nigeria. All the impacts of bad governance on our people that are immediately removable will be removed” Achievement: Over the past 8 years, there have been (positive) significant changes in economy and improvement in human development indices. Data from the UNDP shows that Nigeria’s human development index (HDI) actually increased from 0.419 in 1995 to 0.433 in 2000 and 0.448 in 2004. It appears that human development indices increased faster under President Obasanjo than in the years preceding his administration. While some extraneous factors, such as higher oil prices, may have accounted for this, it is equally true that the improved business environment, economic policy and confidence in the economy are contributory factors. In general, the macroeconomic performance of the country has been impressive during the past 8 years (see table below)
Table 1: Some Macroeconomic Indicators
However, Nigeria remains a poor country. The latest Human Development Report placed Nigeria in the “low human development category” at the 159th position out of 177 countries in 2004, below such countries as South Africa (121) Ghana (136), Uganda (145) and Kenya (152). Many countries that are less endowed such as Senegal, Uganda, Bangladesh and India have recorded higher rates of increase in their HDIs than Nigeria. As much as 44% of Nigerians still do not have access to improved sanitation; 48% do not have access to improved water supply; about 40% do not have access to electricity; and between about 60% to 70% still live below the poverty line (on less than $1/day). More alarming is the growing income inequality. Based on the above considerations, I score him 60% in terms of promoting human development.
Promise 3: Corruption: Achievement: The administration of President Obasanjo has made a strong effort to fight corruption and ensure good governance than the previous military regimes and civilian administrations. In fact, most of his predecessors encouraged corruption or did nothing about it at best. The establishment of the ICPC and the EFCC by OBJ and efforts of the Ribadu-led EFCC were quite commendable. However, there are criticisms that the fight was selective and some “sacred cows” were not investigated or investigated but not punished. There are also charges that the EFCC was used to haunt some political opponents. In spite of these pitfalls, the reports from Transparency International indicate significant progress in the fight against corruption as shown in the table 2 below. The table shows that in the year OBJ assumed power (1999), Nigeria was ranked the most corrupt country. Nigeria’s CPI and ranking have improved slightly since 1999. In 2004, Nigeria was ranked the 6th most corrupt country.
The 2006 Global Corruption Barometer survey report of Transparency International indicates that although progress has been made in the anti-corruption campaign of the OBJ administration, corruption remains rampant and higher than in many countries. In response to the question “In the past 12 months have you or anyone living in your household paid a bribe in any form”, 38% of respondents in Nigeria responded “Yes” (62% “No”) compared to 36% for the whole of Africa, 51% for Cameroon, 15% for Pakistan, 17% for Latin America, 9% worldwide, 2% for Western Europe and 2% for North America. However, when asked, “How would you assess your current government’s actions in the fight against corruption?”, 23% of the Nigerian respondents “very effective”, 29% “effective”, 16% “not effective”. Table 3 shows a comparison with the responses for other regions and countries, which indicate that the actions of the OBJ administration are yielding positive results. The survey also showed that the Police is the most corrupt sector in Nigeria, followed by the Political Parties, the Education System, Parliament, Judiciary, Utilities, Business/Private Sector, the Military and Tax Revenue. Table 2: Nigeria’s Corruption Perception Index, 1998-2004
*Year of TI Report. Data refers to the previous year during which the survey was conducted. ** CPI = corruption perception index; its value is between 0 (extreme corruption) and 10 (no corruption at all) *** Countries are ranked by their CPI scores. The numerator is the rank of Nigeria and the denominator is the number of countries surveyed. For instance, 81/85 means that Nigeria was ranked at the 81st position out of 85 countries surveyed in 1997 (i.e. the year before 1998). In other words, Nigeria was ranked the 5th most country in 1997. Source: Transparency International. www.transparencyinternational.org
Table 3: Response to the Question “How would you assess your current government’s actions in the fight against corruption?”
A recently published “Rapid Anti-Corruption Assessment” of 16 Africa countries conducted by the USAID in 2004/5, also indicates significant improvement in anti-corruption efforts in Nigeria in the five areas of the survey as shown in the table below:
Table 4: Result of Anti-Corruption Assessment of some African countries by USAID
Note: The score for each area is an average of all questions within that area. The scale runs from 1 to 5, where a score of 5 indicates that a country has implemented all reform programs and a score of 1 indicates that none of the reform programs are implemented. The overall country score is calculated by averaging the scores in the five areas.
Among other things the report noted that “Some laws required as part of a comprehensive anti-corruption strategy have been put in place in Nigeria…However, freedom of information, whistleblower, and sunshine laws are absent. On the implementation side, findings are mixed…,the parliament, which is only minimally engaged in efforts to combat corruption and has limited ability to counterbalance the executive office…”
It will not be surprising, however, if Nigeria suffers a set-back (a reversal) in its CPI and ranking in 2006 and 2007 in view of the failed third-term agenda and the disappointing 2007 elections that was characterized by fraud and bribery. Furthermore, many people have argued that the fight against corruption has not been waged effectively at the state and local government levels.
Based on the above facts, I will award 65% to OBJ’s anti-corruption efforts. Clearly, there is still much work to be done wipe out corruption or reduce it to an “insignificant” level.
Promise 4: Confidence in Government “One of the immediate acts of this administration will be to implement quickly and decisively, measures that would restore confidence in governance. …The issue of crime requires as much attention and seriousness as the issue of corruption...The police will be made to do their job. All Nigerian citizens and residents in our midst are entitled to the protection of life and property. A determined effort will be made to cut down significantly the incidence of violent crime.
Promise 5: Public Reconciliation ‘I am determined to stretch my hand of fellowship to all Nigerians regardless of their political affiliations. I intend to reconcile all those who feel alienated by past political events and I will endeavor to heal divisions, and to restore the harmony we used to know in this country.” Achievement: Under President Obasanjo there has been some progress in public reconciliation but divisions and bitterness still exist between groups. Sixteen days after his inauguration, on June 14, 1999, Obasanjo set up the Oputa Panel (Human Rights Violations Investigation Commission) to investigate past human rights violations and abuses and recommend measures to redress the injustices of the past and prevent recurrence in the future. Although the Panel submitted its report on May 28, 2002, President OBJ has refused to make it public till today and it is difficult to ascertain if he has implemented the recommendations. Similarly, due to the mounting pressure for a Sovereign National Conference, which he opposed, he inaugurated the National Political Reform Conference in early 2005. The Conference submitted its report in July 2005 but President Obasanjo has also failed to implement most of the recommendations to date. In spite of these, it is still fair to say to say that there has been some progress. A recent report on Democracy and Governance in Nigeria[4] noted that “The concept of a Nigerian nation appears to have taken root…evident consensus among elites and the public on the principle of alternation of power…improvement in human rights situation…greater freedom for civil society advocates…commitment to democracy remains despite widespread frustration…inter-ethnic competition has generally not resulted in widespread calls for separation from Nigeria. Rather, elites have focused their sectional concerns toward more negotiable goals of restructuring the federation …The intense inter-ethnic competition of the past through ethnic-based political parties has largely disappeared…ethnic competition now occurs at the party level…”. However, the report also noted that “Nigeria has one of the highest rates of internal violence in the world…Since 1999, over 50,000 have been killed in ethno-religious violence and over 80,000 displaced…in the Niger Delta, rebel groups have escalated their attacks on government and multinational corportations”. Again, the shoddiness of April 2007 elections has worsened the cleavages within and between groups in the country, even if in the short-term. Based on the above, I would like to award 50% to the OBJ administration on this promise.
Promise 6: Niger Delta Crisis “A bill will be forwarded within weeks of the inception of the administration to the National Assembly, for a law providing for 13% derivation in Revenue Allocation to be used for ecological, rehabilitation, infrastructural and other developments. A competent group will be set up immediately to prepare a comprehensive Development Plan for the Niger-Delta Area.” Achievement: This is one area where OBJ failed woefully.[5] Firstly, OBJ did not submit a Bill to the National Assembly for 13% derivation. This was already provided for in the 1999 Constitution. Secondly, he refused to implement the 13% derivation and took the littoral states to the Supreme Court to re-introduce the onshore/offshore dichotomy. Thirdly, he refused to implement the “political/legislative intervention” suggested by the Anenih-led committee and endorsed by the National Assembly to abolish the dichotomy. The compromise he foisted on the National Assembly fell short of full 13% derivation. Fourthly, he failed to ensure that the NDDC was adequately funded as per the Act establishing it. It took almost 7 years for him to get the Niger Delta Development Master Plan which he launched at the twilight of his administration. Fifthly, he failed to fully deliver on the 9-point agenda he promised at the inauguration of the Council on the socioeconomic development of the Coastal states on the Niger Delta in April 2006. Sixthly, under his watch, the security situation of the Niger Delta region degenerated to its lowest ebb with the emergence of well-equipped militants/insurgents who have claimed responsibility for frequent kidnappings, bombing, attacks of oil facilities, etc. Even the Vice-President-elect and Governor of Bayelsa state was attacked by the militants and his country home destroyed, Oil production has plummeted significantly due to the poor security situation in the region. In view of the above, I will award him 20% on the management of the Niger Delta crisis.
Promise 7: External Relations
Achievement: With the exceptions of a few blunders, I think President Obasanjo performed creditably well in external relations. He succeeded in moving Nigeria from its erstwhile pariah status to a fairly respected position in the comity of nations. Some of the highpoints of his external diplomacy included the cessation of hostilities and restoration of democracy in both Sierra Leone and Liberia, the establishment of NEPAD, improvement in the country’s international reputation which led to an agreement with Paris Club of 19 official creditors to settle the bulk of Nigeria’s external debt. On the latter, “in exchange for a payment of $12.4 billion, The Paris Club countries agreed to forgive the $18billion remainder of the $30billion debt owed by Nigeria. Upon completion of its payment in April 2006, Nigeria became the first sub-Saharan African country to completely eliminate its Paris Club debt…Nigeria has now been taken off an international blacklist and is able to borrow on favorable terms again”[6]. Thanks to his efforts, Nigeria has been participating in the annual prestigious G8 meetings. Two of his lowpoints in external relations are the loss of Bakassi to Cameroon and the surrender of Charles Taylor to the International Court, an action that will make future African dictators to distrust promise of asylum by a Nigerian leader and thus make them more likely to remain in office at all cost. I will award President Obasanjo a score of 90% on external relations.
“The incursion of the military into government has been a disaster for our country and for the military over the last thirty years. …A great deal of reorientation has to be under taken and a re-definition of roles, re-training and re-education will have to be done o ensure that the military submits to civil authority and regains its pride, professionalism and traditions. Achievement: I think OBJ has been able to checkmate the military keeping them away from political adventurism. The military has become more professional. However, the rate of pre-mature retirements and changes is troubling. This clearly is not a strategy for “professionalism” all be it a strategy for preventing coup. Despite the change from military to civilian administration, President Obasanjo maintained a high level of military expenditure throughout his tenure (see table below)
Table 5: Recurrent and Capital Expenditure on Defence
I will award him 70% on this promise.
Promise 9: Good and Civilized Governance “It is my resolve to work harmoniously with the legislature and the judiciary to ensure that Nigerians enjoy good and civilised governance. I am also determined to build a broad consensus amongst all parties to enhance national harmony and stability and thus ensure success in the long struggle ahead.”
I will score him 30% on this promise
2.2 May 29, 2003 Inauguration Address
President Obasanjo repeated some of the above promises in his second inaugural address to the nation on May 29, 2003. In addition, he made a few new promises, some of which are summarized below. Promise 10: Elections“I pledge to provide leadership that will consolidate this new democratic foundation and ensure that future elections will not only be successful but expedite the maturing of our nation as a truly democratic country in which Nigerians can choose their leadership without rancor. All over the world….This is why I see my initial assignment as president in trying to heal the wounds from the elections…We will work to strengthen the democratic process and eliminate all forms of electoral malpractices so that future elections will generate less tension and enhance the quality of governance and leadership in our country.”
Achievement: There is a general consensus among observers that President Obasanjo failed woefully to deliver on this promise. Massive rigging, fraud and irregularities characterized the two elections (2003 and 2007) that he presided over. The 2007 election in particular will go down in history as the worst in the annals of elections in Nigeria. The New York Times editorial of April 25, 2007 aptly titled “Betraying a Democratic Legacy “ captures the general opinion on the election. The editorial noted that “Last Saturday’s presidential election should have marked a major consolidation of democracy in Nigeria… Instead, it was an ugly travesty — not just procedurally flawed, but completely lacking in basic democratic plausibility. …Nigerians are understandably angry and frustrated. …Most of the blame for this disgrace goes to Nigeria’s outgoing president, Olusegun Obasanjo”. Another report titled “How to steal yet another election” in The Economist of April 21-27, 2007, noted that “The lengths to which Mr. Obasanjo’s ruling PDP has gone to cling to power have undermined and discredited so many of Nigeria’s institutions and office-holders…Much of the blame for the present electoral chaos rests with Mr. Obasanjo himself” I will therefore award him 10% on this promise.
Promise 11: Infrastructure“Our vigorous policy of investment in roads, energy and water supply has begun to yield noticeable results. We intend to construct more roads and maintain old ones, to improve transportation and ease movement of goods throughout the country. Power supply: it is our determination to improve the quality of power supply and to expand output to at lease 10,000 Megawatts by the end of our second term in office”. Achievement: Again, the country did not witness a significant improvement is infrastructure during the past 8 years. While many federal roads were rehabilitated and some were constructed, the condition of many federal roads still leaves much to be desired. For instance, a significant section of the Shagamu –Benin road, linking the West and the Niger Delta/East, remains in a state of disrepair. The second River Niger Bridge at Asaba/Onitsha is yet to constructed after many years on the drawing board. He “flagged off” the construction of the long-awaited N58.6 billion bridge on May 24, 2007 – less than a week to his departure! Less than 50% of Nigerians have access to public water supply. Most people rely on private boreholes or harvested rain water or wells or water from streams and rivers. The most pathetic case is electricity supply. Despite the much ado, there has not been any significant improvement in public electric power supply. The generating capacity of PHCN (NEPA’s successor) has increased only marginally from about 5,900MW in 1999 to about 6,000MW, a far cry from the 10,000MW promised by the end of the year, although licenses have been granted to 18 independent power producers during the past one year to generate about 6,864 MW. Actual power availability (supply) has not improved and has fluctuated between about 2,000MW and 4,000MW during the past eight year, about the same level before OBJ assumed power. Although the power sector has been restructured, electricity consumers are yet to experience any benefits in terms of improved power reliability. It will be recalled that Obasanjo promised then to make power failure a thing of the past within a year. To underscore this, he appointed the much respected late Chief Bola Ige the Minister of Power and allocated substantial funds to improve power supply. I think it will be fair to award him 40% on this promise.
Promise 12: Healthcare“More resources will be put into our hospitals and healthcare delivery system, not just to improve but to stop preventable deaths and raise the national life expectancy”. Achievement: An examination of the table below shows that there has been a significant increase in both recurrent and capital expenditure on health as well as improvement some basic health indicators and the conditions of most federal health institutions, especially the teaching hospitals.
Table 6: Health Performance Statistics
However, the health sector is still plagued by a host of problems. The fact that most Nigerians who can afford it still go abroad for medical treatment of minor ailments is a clear testimony of failure to fully deliver on this promise. Only a few months ago, in the heat of the campaign, the Vice President (Atiku) and the now president elect Yar’Adua were flown abroad for what could be regarded as minor ailments- they could even be treated at the Aso Clinic! Even a Presidential candidate collapsed and died! The Edo State Commissioner for Health also collapsed and died recently because of lack of oxygen in the hospital to resuscitate him! I will award President Obasanjo 55% on health.
“The UBE programme will be completed and the Nigerian society can enjoy the privilege of having in school, all children of school age. We plan to complete the refurbishment of our educational institutions at all levels in order to make them fully operational, qualitatively and quantitatively, so as to meet the educational needs and skill development of our society.” Achievement: Like in the health sector, there has also been significant increase in expenditure in education and improvement major education indicators as shown in the table below. However, the sector is still crying for more improvements as evidenced by the continuing exodus of Nigerians overseas for higher education.
Table 7: Education Performance Statistics
I will award President Obasanjo 55% on education.
“In order to assist me in my executive
tasks, I plan to assemble some of the best men and women as ministers and
members of the executive council. The appointment criteria will be:
ability, integrity, competence, shared vision and good character. The
performance of all ministers, who will have targets, will be carefully
monitored and assessed to ensure effective implementation of policies in
their respective ministries. The present structure of the Presidency will
be critically reviewed to include a monitoring unit that will follow up
and report on the effective implementation of policy decisions.” On this promise, I would award him a score of 70% on this promise.
3. Summary of Scores
The table below shows a summary of my scores in each of the “area of promise”. The average score is 50.4%, which means that in my assessment, President Obasanjo’s overall performance was barely satisfactory. Low as this score may be, it is my assessment that he performed better than most other past Nigerian leaders.
Since my scores are subjective, I would like interested readers to indicate their scores in each of the areas and send them to me at emmaojameruaye@yahoo.com. I hope to collate all the scores I receive and find the average score for each area and a grand average as well as the variation.
Table 7: Summary of Scores
4. Lessons for President-elect Yar’Adua’s Action There is no doubt that the promises Obasanjo made were good. They were also in line with what most Nigerians wanted. Unfortunately, he could not deliver on them fully. Without prejudice to the promises President-elect Yar’Adua will make to Nigerians when he is inaugurated on May 29, it is expected that he would revisit Obasanjo’s unfulfilled promises and unfinished agenda.
Below is a sample of some of the necessary actions that should form part of his agenda and promises to the nation. In making his promises, he needs to establish benchmarks where possible, e.g. increase the electricity supply to 12,000MW by 2008, 15,000MW by 2010; reduce the number of reported armed robberies by 20% in 2008, by another 10% in 2009, etc.
a) Ensure credible elections: President Yar’Adua should reorganize INEC and consider introduction of alternative voting systems such as electronic voting or the “option A4” (queuing) system adopted by IBB in 1993. The current top management team of INEC should be re-assigned to other Federal Ministries and a new team should be appointed. INEC should be fully independent of the executive and should be allocated a fixed percentage of federal government revenue (say 1%). It could report to the National Assembly and could be headed by a foreigner. b) Restore confidence in governance. Ensure security of life and property by fighting crime and armed robbery. This can be achieved by re-organizing the police force, improving the condition of service and fighting corruption within the force. The police force should be provided with modern telecommunication gadgets, helicopters in each town, fast-moving vehicles, motor cycles and functional emergency response telephone numbers (“911”). In addition, existing prisons should be expanded and new ones should be built. c) Implement the recommendations of the NPRC for the Nigeria Delta. Ensure rapid development and restore peace and security through compromise rather than use of force. d) Improve social infrastructure, electricity supply, water supply and sanitation. e) Continue the anti-corruption campaign with greater vigor. The EFCC should be renamed “Nigerian Anti-Corruption Agency” and should be independent of the executive, for instance by ensuring that it gets a fixed percentage of federal revenue and reports to a joint council of the executive, judiciary and legislature. f) Ensure the rule of law. g) Faithfully implement the NEEDS.
ENDNOTES
[1] As assessment of legacy focuses on how an individual will be remembered and/or what he/she is bequeathing to his successor. On the other hand, an evaluation is systematic determination or an informed act of ascertaining or fixing the value or worth of a project or product. When applied to an individual like a President, an evaluation means a systematic or informed determination of the extent to which he met certain performance benchmarks. [2] An alternative form of evaluation will be one based on the performance of the annual budgets the President prepared during his tenure. We can also evaluation the performance of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) that he launched in 2004. The NEEDS contains some benchmarks, but we do not have adequate and up-to-date data now to assessment its performance during the past three years. [3] The Delphi technique is method of obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds. [4] Democracy and Governance Assessment in Nigeria. USAID. Dec. 2006. [5] For more details see my article “The Niger Delta Crisis: President Obasanjo’s Scorecard and a Proposed Agenda for President-elect Yar’Adua” in www.gamji.com May 15, 2007. [6] .See p. 6.of of the reference cited in 3 above, “Democracy…” [7] For more detail, see Obasanjo: Eight Years of Tortuous Democracy. Daily Independent, May 16, 2007. [1] As assessment of legacy focuses on how an individual will be remembered and/or what he/she is bequeathing to his successor. On the other hand, an evaluation is systematic determination or an informed act of ascertaining or fixing the value or worth of a project or product. When applied to an individual like a President, an evaluation means a systematic or informed determination of the extent to which he met certain performance benchmarks. [1] An alternative form of evaluation will be one based on the performance of the annual budgets the President prepared during his tenure. We can also evaluation the performance of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) that he launched in 2004. The NEEDS contains some benchmarks, but we do not have adequate and up-to-date data now to assessment its performance during the past three years. [1] The Delphi technique is method of obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds. [1] Democracy and Governance Assessment in Nigeria. USAID. Dec. 2006. [1] For more details see my article “The Niger Delta Crisis: President Obasanjo’s Scorecard and a Proposed Agenda for President-elect Yar’Adua” in www.gamji.com May 15, 2007. [1] .See p. 6.of of the reference cited in 3 above, “Democracy…” [1] For more detail, see Obasanjo: Eight Years of Tortuous Democracy. Daily Independent, May 16, 2007.
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