To Cancel Most Elections, Opposition Movement Must Simultaneously Strategize On Judicial And Political Fronts

By

Chudi Ikwueze, Ph.D

chuikwueze@aol.com

 

 

The week of April 14-21, 2007 was tragic in Nigeria for so many reasons. Many innocent lives and properties worth millions of naira were lost in the name of elections. The overall cost of the elections and their consequences to the Nigerian treasury are estimated in billions of dollars and counting. Since the elections, day in day out, we are bombarded with news of destruction of lives and properties, an apparent reactions of aggrieved Nigerians protesting the way and manner in which the elections were handled. The way things are shaping frankly, there seems not to be any end at sight to the daily baptism of mayhem visited on our compatriots with  attendant losses due to the elections outcome. Nigerians and international community are demanding the elections be cancelled. But these calls clearly fall on deaf ears of government and INEC officials mainly because they have so far come in form of pronouncements without a commensurate actions, to back them up.

 

Perhaps, that is why aggrieved Nigerians demonstrate unabatedly by destruction of lives, publicly and privately-owned properties. In view, there has emerged a massive political movement of diversified groups, personalities and interests which are bonded by a single goal- to have the elections cancelled. Just a couple of days ago, the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) shut the courts across most of Nigeria to register their support for cancellation of the elections. Unbelievable! What a success? Now I know why lawyers are referred to as “learned men and women”. Even our Professor Chinua Achebe in far away USA has /mobilized/joined with some 100 like-minds both at home and abroad equally calling for cancellation of the elections. Nigerians in diaspora especially those in the United Kingdom had staged demonstrations in London, calling for the elections cancellation. Our indomitable Professor Wole Soyinka has mobilized 48 eminent Noble laureates, each calling for re-run of the elections. The Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC), NUPENG, PENGASSAN have called for a sit-at-home strike come May 28 and 29, in attempt to compel the authorities to cancel the elections.

 

To put it succinctly, the political battle ground has been drawn on this matter. It is clearly going to be a confrontation between Obasanjo-Umaru Yaradua-led PDP gang-up versus other Nigerians and most of international community. The question right now is whether or not the emerging gigantic opposition movement would succeed in forcing a re-run of the elections? My opinion is that the emerging opposition movement could secure cancellation of the elections; only if they do certain things right, right away.

 

First and foremost, the civil liberty and professional organizations, TUG, NLC, PENGASSAN, NUPENG and other opposition movement members must be prepared for a medium-long-term confrontation with government reminiscent of the NADECO era, on this matter. As a consequence, the immediate assignment for emerging opposition movement would be to determine how many of their members could run the distance and willing to absorb the sacrifices that accompany such confrontation. The opposition movement should not choose confrontation with government if majority of groups or personalities within its fold are not equipped to go the distance.

 

Moreso, the opposition movement must realize as well that even if they have enough members willing to go the distance, that just exerting political pressure on government alone may not automatically result in cancellation of the elections.  That is why they must invite to their folds aggrieved politicians who currently are headed to the tribunals. Indeed the opposition movement must pay attention at what is happening at the tribunals. It is critically vital for opposition movement to stand in solidarity with the aggrieved politicians, supporting their cases in any way they could, as that could increase the possibility of having most of the rigged elections overturned or cancelled at the tribunals. The opposition movement must remember that although majority of Nigerian judiciary is honorable, it does not exist in a vacuum. Those men and women are Nigerians and could still potentially be subdued under the influence of “Nigeria factor”. It is reasonable therefore to assume that by standing in solidarity with the aggrieved politicians as well as for courageous men and women of the judiciary, the opposition movement would have boosted the overall chance of overturning the elections.

 

By way of conclusion, I guess the point I am making is that, to increase the chances of having the elections cancelled, the emerging opposition movement must fight on both POLITICAL and JUDICIAL FRONTS. First, they must effectively coordinate activities of various groups, key personalities and human and material resources available to them so as to exert insurmountable political pressure on government at all levels. Second, they must stand in solidarity with honorable men and women of the judiciary, support aggrieved mainly opposition politicians at tribunals in any way legally possible so that all or greater number of the elections could be overturned or cancelled. Third, and most importantly, they must decide right away whether groups and personalities who have joined the emerging movement for cancellation of the elections could go the distance and willing to absorb the challenges that come with such confrontation with government.

 

Therefore, they must never choose confrontation with government unless majority of active members are prepared to go the distance such as NADECO did less than a decade ago. Needless to state that it would be more reasonable to allow the tribunals to be the final arbiters in this matter rather than get into confrontation with government haphazardly, only to be subdued few months down the road.

 

Do not forget to pray to God Almighty for Nigeria.