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On May 29th 2007, power symbolically shifted to northern Nigeria; however the region is still nursing the wounds it sustained in the last eight years.  The north was relegated to the backseat within the economy, the public service, oil sector. It also lost ground in positions, commands and authority within the military, security agencies and corridors of real political power. The north was badly sidelined in the privatization program, none of the lucrative national enterprises that were sold went to the north, and also the people in the north bitterly acknowledged that they suffered a fatal injury in the recapitalization of the banking industry which many northerners regarded as specifically targeted at the North. Out of the twenty-five banks that emerged, the north have a stake in only one bank. But the hardest hit were the political leaders of the north, they were economically strangled and   politically castigated.
 

The political leadership of the north under the illusion of retaining control and rule Nigeria by proxy, and by their desire to dictate who and where the presidency should go to, decided to support Olusegun Obasanjo to be Nigeria's president in 1999, and after that, they simply went to sleep, forgetting that the Nigerian presidency is an extremely powerful one with the President possessing the powers of 'doing' and 'undoing'. Simply put, the Nigerian Presidency makes its incumbent a thin-god. 

The political leadership in the north are now reeling with disappointments, regrets and anger from what appears their colossal misjudgment. However, political leadership in the north is in delight! The presidency is back to arewa.  But in contrast, the masses in the north   are not in any excitement about this power shift- alias   Yar'Adua's presidency. In spite of Yar'Adua being a man  with undisputable personal and political credibility,  this is  not because  the process that led to his emergence was dented by controversies and gross irregularities, neither because he bears the name Umaru Yar'Adua, nor because he is a member  of the PDP, but the region had had six of her sons, five from the military and one from the civilians who had occupied  this exalted position of President  in nearly 37 years of the 47 years of Nigeria's post independence existence, but the people of the north  still lag behind  other regions of Nigeria  in every sphere of socio-economic sector of Nigeria , although this is a very  difficult statement to make to the hearing and acceptance of political-elites in the north, but  it is an apparent  reality- the top ten poverty ridden states are northern states.

It will be a monumental task for President Yar'Adua to persuade northern Talawas that his government would be different from other previous northern-elites control government, when it comes to the protection of their interest and bringing real development to them. However, one thing worth mentioning is, this time around Yar'Adua will be under a great deal of pressure from the northern people to improve their lives- by paying more attention to agriculture, constructing new expressways and power plants, appointing their sons and daughters to positions of authorities and indeed creating 'billionaires' amongst their kith and kin- this demands is an upshot  of what people saw in the Obasanjo eight years rule. Obasanjo has shown to the people of the north how power is used and how position of authority is exploited. The eight years of Obasanjo's rule far outweigh the thirty-seven years of northern-Nigeria-established-political-elites romance with power. This has in reality, portrayed the northern political headship that ruled Nigeria in the past as weak, self-centered and only concerned with the welfare of their broods. There is a school  of thought that is suggesting that, the sponsoring of  Obasanjo by political elites in the north  was necessitated by the belief that Obasanjo will be a malleable puppet  who can play the 'good boy'  and not  act against  the interest of his sponsors, but within a short period, Obasanjo was transformed beyond the imagination of his sponsors, indeed he became the nemesis  of those  facilitators of  his  release from prison. Those that   gave him a  hasty  state pardon and paved the way for his easy  ride to  the presidency. In his eight years rule, Obasanjo constantly hit these people with weird strategies that came with elements of surprise which were unconventional and outside their thoughts. Only Sunday Awoniyi's dissent, Ghalli Nabba's opposition, Jokolo's forthrightness and Atiku's rebellion seemed to have confronted Obasanjo.

Nigeria's high-wired politicking is interesting, and the political-gladiators can be  a good case of study because political events have ways of reoccurring in Nigeria's polity and politicians never appear to learn any lesson. In 1999, when northern-Nigeria-established-political-elites were faced with the inevitable (to relinquished power), they needed to retain control, influence and they also needed cover. Therefore they needed a man they can trust 'a lackey'. The cap perfectly fitted Obasanjo. But Obasanjo was a man in a dilemma, his immediate constituency - the southwest - viewed him as nothing but pro-north. Hallelujah! An opportunity was presented to the chicken and pig farmer to remove this impression of being pro-north that was surrounding him, Obasanjo went on the rampage, creating unnecessary enemies and surrounded himself with false friends and real enemies, at the end, Obasanjo created another public-impression of himself. Nigerians see him as anti-masses, because he had failed to provided rice and beans on their tables.

Ho,ho!  What have we here? 2007 is here, and it took Obasanjo by shock. He has to relinquish power. Obasanjo has found himself in the same shoes of his 1999 benefactors; he needs cover and want to remain relevance. The choice of Yar'Adua by Obasanjo was motivated by one factor, same factor that made him to select Atiku as his running mate in 1999, and this factor was the unalloyed loyalty that late Gen. Shehu Yar'Adua gave Obasanjo during his military rule days. The powerful northern political elites will be watching the whole event with keen interest.

0n 12^th June 2007,  Northern Elders and Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) met in a closed-door meeting  in Kaduna to draft  a blueprint for  government of President Umaru Yar'Adua for the economic and social development of  Nigeria, however, many people in the north are expecting President Yar'Adua to go on bananas  and  dislodge anything Obasanjo, but it appears Yar'Adua truly understand the power-game, it also appears that his Aminu Kano PRP's ideology, his PDM and SDP  political connections and his  undisputed political and personal credibility  has made him  an analytical  politico, whose mind is constantly patrolling the current political situation. What Nigeria needs now is an all-inclusive government that will intensively engage in negotiations, discussions and spirit of give and take. But any thoughtless heating-up of the polity   will only create unnecessary enemies for Yar'Adua and polarize the nation on regional lines.

 

  Zayyad I. Muhammad wtrites from JImeta, Nigeria