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Washington Consensus And The Nigerian Economy By Jide Ayobolu That the Nigerian economy is in tatters is merely stating the obvious. Though the figure from the Federal Office of Statistics said the inflation rate in the economy is 14.8 per cent, manifest empirical factors have made analysts dispute this figure, thus putting the real inflation rate at around 20 per cent. The assessed non-credibility of FOS figure could be understood, given government induced inflation hiking policies, which have made official pledge of single digit figure a mere glib talk. Given that inflation figures are arrived at from a basket of prices of various items, the incessant fuel price hikes alone, according to analysts have spin-off effects on the prices of virtually all products and services. The International Monetary Fund has candidly advised African countries to find a way of methodically achieving a single digit inflation rate various economies. However, Nigeria has not been able to achieve this feat, as a result of the frequent increase in the prices of petroleum products and its adverse multiplier or ripple effects on all other sectors of the national economy, as made manifest in spiral inflationary trends as well as quantum increases in the prices of good and services in the country. Hence, with about 800 per cent yearly growth rate of inflation for about 20years, Nigeria’s galloping inflation is second to none in the world. It is in fact, to this end that, IMF observed that Nigeria is the only country in the world that allows its inflationary trend to gallop this way. Though the volume of economic activities in the nation signifies a growth in the Gross Domestic Product, but the level of inflation shows that it is possible for GDP to rise without raising the people’s standard of living. This assertion is in tandem with the position of the United Nations Development Programme which states categorically that 89 million out of the present 140 million Nigerians live on less than $1 a day. This automatically translates to approximately 70.2 per cent of the entire Nigerian population. Apart from this, poverty is ubiquitous; unemployment and under-employment are equally pervasive. There is apparent infrastructural decay, with epileptic power supply, absence of pipe-borne water, non-availability of a good and enduring housing policy, the highways are in a deplorable state of disrepair, and life is so cheap as there is general insecurity in the land. Moreover, the standard of education is on the decline as there are often academic strikes to press home the demand for better funding for the very important sector. According to UNESCO, at least 26 per cent of the annul budget should be given to the education sector. This has not been used, as the amount earmarked has steadily depreciated over the years. Today, in the country, the conditions of the hospitals are worst than mere consulting clinics, as there are no drugs and the best medical experts have either gone to America, Europe and the Middle East in search of the proverbial golden fleece. Agriculture that should have been the main-stay of the economy has not been attended to, the same thing goes for the development of solid minerals, since the discovery of oil; the Nigerian nation has depended too heavily on the capital intensive oil sector which provides 20 per cent of the GDP, 95 per cent of the foreign exchange and 65 per cent of budgetary revenue. Nigeria is thus a mono-cultural, dependent, capitalist economy in permanent crisis of various sorts, which is epileptic to the vagaries in the international oil pricing which can and do create domestic economic shocks and instability. The country’s reserve is estimated at over 32 billion barrels and the sixth largest producer in OPEC. In spite of these resource endowment and investment in development efforts, the nation is still disappointingly characterized by poor micro-economic instability, inflationary pressures and high cost of doing business in the country. Also, while Nigeria’s GDP growth rate has been performing below at comparable benchmarks, Cape Verde, Mauritius, Mozambique and Uganda have achieved growth rates of around seven per cent in the last decade. And, in the area of Foreign Direct Investment, there has been no remarkable achievement due to macro-economic instability, high inflation rate, high interest rate and exchange rate volatility arising from fiscal dominance, poor infrastructural facilities, inadequate and costly telecommunication services, frequent disruption on power supply and poor road network. It is imperative to underscore the fact that development efforts have been difficult to accomplish due to a number of closely intertwined factors, namely, the rapaciousness of our leaders, and the lack of institutional arrangement to effectively handle the sudden inflow of money from oil export and this has seriously impacted on agricultural and industrial production and commodity export. Hence, a mono-cultural export economy has become inevitable as high interest rates and very high manufacturing costs coupled with poor infrastructure and unstable government policy make export of agricultural and industrial finished goods uncompetitive and impractical. Furthermore, NEEDS which is the economic policy of the Federal government is not known to Nigerians. It has not yet yielded the desired result, as it has not contributed meaningfully to the growth and development of the amelioration of the socio-economic conditions of Nigerians. However, one thing is very clear, NEEDS is tantamount to the systematic implementation of Brettonwood economic policies with special focus on the removal of subsidy and welfare of the citizens. Yet, the 1999 constitution explicitly stated that, the security and welfare of the citizens is the primary purpose of government. Hence, the government should admit that, it has failed woefully to deliver the necessary dividends of democracy to the people, in terms of the betterment and upliftment of their socio-economic well being and welfare. So, there is the exigent need to go back to the drawing board and fashion out a new pragmatic economic policy that will get Nigeria out of the woods. What we have now is to say the very least, so much sound and fury signifying nothing. This is because with Yar’Adua nothing seems to be working; hence he’s referred to baba-go-slow, but with his style he may soon become baba-standstil. The keeps mum on all issues, he is not seen and heard for days, it is as if there is no activity taking place at all within Aso Rock. If this kind of attitude is maintained before the outcome of the tribunal’s jugdement, then the country will be grinded to a halted. This is definitely, not what Nigeria and Nigerians need at the material times, that requires that fast and several actions be taken quickly and promptly. But what Yar’Adua must know that, development can only be achieved if the people at the centre of such development efforts find the means of achieving such development goals get incentive rather than extraneous inducement. Organic development in any social milieu can only take place when efforts are geared towards improving the domestic capacity of the people and this is what Nigerian government must do now.
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