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Carving The Menace Of Youth Restiveness In Bauchi At what cost? By Leonard Karshima Shilgba, Ph.D.
Opportunity cost is the opportunity you give up by the choices you make and the decisions you take. Every decision of government comes with a price; the price could be worth paying or otherwise depending on the trajectory on which such a decision sets the vehicle of national development and growth.
The government of President Bush won a lot of goodwill globally in its infancy following the September 11th attack in 2001. There was effusive outpouring of sympathy across the world. Nations were united in condemnation of the attack; flags were flown at half mast and memorial services were held in many parts of the world for the souls lost in the gruesome attack.
As sudden as the goodwill that came to the USA in the wake of the attack, so sudden also was its dissipation after the stubborn attacks by USA on Iraq. That choice to attack Iraq was displayed on the platform of the phony claim that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. While the international team of inspectors was doing their job of inspecting for those weapons, the USA lost patience and attacked Iraq. As they say, all is now history. This ill-advised war has cost America and the world plenty of souls, money, and time; more profoundly, it has cost America goodwill, respect and trust, and President Bush his presidential approval rating, which is now at an all-time low.
I have written and expressed my worries at some decisions by the government of President Yaradua. There are people around Yaradua who are claiming that it is their “time to eat”. They think that being in government is an opportunity to feed fat. This misunderstanding of governance in Africa is the bane of our society. The elite who have found themselves in President Yaradua’s government have ganged themselves together to suggest programs and policies that will weaken certain institutions, productive initiatives, frustrate committed personalities, and exalt mediocrity so far as they profit personally from them. I ask this question: At what cost to the nation are Yaradua’s decisions and policies so far?
As I wrote many months ago, I am not a prophet. But I have seen things in my life ahead of their time that came to pass. I saw and wrote that the more likely candidates for the office of president of Nigeria did not succeed. I have again seen that the President will find himself in some trouble that will require help from unlikely sources.
The government of President Yaradua has threatened to lift the ban on importation of bagged cement into Nigeria if the price of cement is not brought down. Has his government researched into the reasons for the high price of cement? All the noise about declaring Emergency in the power sector should suggest that the deplorable state of electricity power supply and ancillary infrastructure is a hindrance to all productive activities. It is common knowledge that Nigerian families and industries spend whooping amounts of money on liquid fuel to power their electricity generating sets.
The government of Yaradua should come up with what it thinks should be the appropriate price of cement with a backup of scientific facts with regard to cost of production, tax, freight etc.
The reference to the cement industry is only to capture an exemplar of the strangeness of Yaradua’s policies. How can a state of emergency be declared (or so it is claimed) in a sector that weighs so much on productive costs and government at the same time threatens importation of products whose cost can be brought down by government providing the needed infrastructure? Who are the government officials that stand to gain from importation of cement? What is the cost to the nation? What encouragement is government giving to manufacturers, not only of cement but of other goods in order to make Nigeria an industrialized nation?
If Nigeria will become an industrialized nation, she must not leave the maritime industry to be dominated by foreigners. The government must financially support provably serious Nigerian actors in the industry to own and operate vessels. This is a multi billion dollar industry that must not be left in the hands of foreigners. Everything necessary must be done to give fillip to the entrepreneurial efforts of Nigerians. Banks are afraid to get involved and the operators are left in a quandary. Suppose government decides to do nothing and yet dreams about Nigeria becoming one of the top 20 most industrialized nations in the year 2020, it would be laughable to say the least.
Borrowing interest rate in Nigeria is still too high. Currency stability and the Minimum Rediscount rate (MRR) set by the Central Bank significantly determine interest rates. What is the Finance Ministry doing in collaboration with the Central Bank to bring down interest rate since banks are not allowed to charge more than 4 percent above the MRR? High interest rate affects local production negatively.
What is the government of Yaradua thinking or doing about interest rate? Physical infrastructure is so bad that I need not describe again since it is international knowledge. Rail roads on which commodities like cement, steel products, etc can be freighted are largely operationally comatose. Those things affect production cost, President Yaradua. It is good governance to diagnose a national problem and proffer cure, not for the symptom, but the actual ailment.
President Yaradua recently announced the unbundling of the NNPC and the creation of related companies and agencies from the pile. While it remains doubtful that a change of name alone can infuse efficiency, it is a wonder how someone that had recently suspended the CBN’s new naira policy on the allegation that it did not follow due process could make an announcement purportedly scrapping the NNPC which was established under the NNPC Act of 1977 and amended in July 2007 without recourse to the National Assembly.
The unbundling of NEPA was not done until the passage into law of the National Electricity bill in March 2005 and consequential establishment of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). That was due process-not putting the cart before the horse. The reforms of President Obasanjo have crystallized into an emerging pattern:
The first test case was in the telecommunication sector with the establishment of the National Communications Commission (NCC) which now regulates the industry instead of NITEL. The success recorded in the sector encouraged government to try the same thing in the electricity sector which requires much longer gestation time to manifest the benefits. The National Integrated Power scheme which followed the passage of the National Electricity bill in 2005 was meant to generate plenty of electricity. But generation is only a part of the solution; transmission and distribution infrastructure must be in place. The NERC is established to give licenses to companies that can generate, transmit, and distribute electricity.
The reforms in the Energy sector will surely lead to the establishment of a National Energy Commission that will replicate in the oil and gas sector what the NCC is doing in the telecommunications sector. Our refineries have been performing at dismal levels; the emphasis should be to encourage local construction of refineries and not importation of refined petroleum products. Experience has shown that government alone cannot build and manage refineries successfully. The private sector must be brought into the business.
How can private investors be assured that the threat by government on local producers of cement will not be made on them in the future? How can their investments be secured? No nation develops by threatening her investors. I ask the question again: Who stands to gain from importation of bagged cement?
Government officials have fronts. They have insider information on the acceptable prices to government. Those officials could be Ministers or Permanent Secretaries. They may publish government jobs and contracts. Then send in about three or more companies to bid. They give one of the companies the “acceptable quotation”. Everything appears normal on the surface; “due process” is followed. The government official gets paid by the company that wins the contract. The same charade happens also when licensing for certain business activities like importation of commodities happens. Nigerian government officials have learnt to cover their tracks very well in order to avoid detection by the EFCC and other security agencies.
Bidding companies could build houses and mansions for government officials in their villages or choice locations in towns and cities. To play safe, a government official must avoid unsolicited gifts. Unfortunately, those who avoid those gifts are maligned, assaulted, and threatened. The just have become villains in Nigeria. If President Yaradua does not watch his moves, his will be the era when the just shall be dethroned and villains in sheep clothing celebrated.
The reforms in the Education sector started under Mrs. Oby Ezekwesili have been either “suspended” or scrapped. The Health care projects in the local governments in Nigeria have been “suspended”. The prosecuting powers of the EFCC were “suspended” but later reversed under heat. The new naira policy of the CBN has been “suspended”. In fact, the 100 days of President Yaradua can be compared to a rudderless ship; his actions during the period were reactionary. Unfortunately, only a few intellectuals have seen this. However, insight is not gifted to the crowd but the shrewd.
Who is gaining and who is losing? Nigeria is losing. Some people are talking of “rule of law” and “due process”. If nothing is done to stop the downward slide, we shall wake up to discover that we have been taken off course. The resolve and game plan is to tie the hands of agencies which symbolize our aspirations to greatness; exaggerate their foibles while amplifying Yaradua’s subservience to the “rule of law”. Use technicalities to weaken those symbols of a new Nigeria, and provide protection for her rappers. Love me or hate my guts, we may yet be at the door steps of the worst era of corruption in Nigeria.
President Yaradua must never crave for cheap popularity among rogues. Neither must he seek to be compared with President Obasanjo and declared more of a democrat. If his achievement in the last 100 days is just that, then he must wonder. I still have hope that he is a shrewd man. He may be biding his time to understand the people surrounding him. He may pleasantly surprise Nigerians. I wouldn’t be surprised if before a year in office, he gives his cabinet a refurbishment. But he must not forget that the buck stops at his desk.
Leonard Karshima Shilgba is an Assistant Professor of Mathematics at the American University of Nigeria.
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