Why I Question  Obasanjo's Judgment

By

 Dr. Wumi Akintide

WUMIONE@aol.com

A good sensible leader ought to know which battles to fight and where to draw the line. I would be the first to admit that Obasanjo has managed to be all he could be in our Commonwealth, having led Nigeria longer than any other Nigerians dead or alive. He has got to be doing a few things right with that kind of profile, and he has, indeed, done that, on a few issues affecting our nation  to be very candid. But all the same, the enigma called Obasanjo has made some pretty silly calculations that you would really wonder if the guy is really as smart as speculated, or if  he is simply an opportunist cashing in, on the naivety of his fellow country men, most of the time.

I was serving in the Federal Public Service when Murtala Mohammed and Obasanjo first came to power in 1975, as the number one and number two in our Government. At that time I used to think and I think most Nigerians used to think that Obasanjo was the brain box or the invisible power house or power broker of the regime. I personally thought, at the time, that most of the bold initiatives of that Administration were mostly the brain child of Obasanjo, even though the whole team might have participated in the decision-making. I am able to categorically say so, because I knew Murtala far better than I knew Obasanjo, at the time, because I once served with Murtala as Chairman of the Recruitment panel for the officer cadre in the Nigerian Army in my capacity as Assistant Secretary, (Army) from January 3rd, 1968 in the Republic Building along Marina close to the Obisesan Hall in downtown Lagos and very close to the Central Bank..

I knew Murtala to be one leader who is always in a hurry to get things done. With Murtala, what you saw was what you got. He did not prevaricate or suffer fools gladly. He meant what he said and he said what he meant. It is a different ball game with Obasanjo whose flat affect truly belies what he might do or not do, in any situation or crisis. He is definitely as smart as they come and his mind is deeper than the ocean. He could be smiling at you, one moment, and stab you the very next moment. Was he intelligent and razor-blade sharp, you bet. Is he rough and ready, but very crude at the same time? He is all of the above. Is he a womanizer or a flirt in uniform? You, sure, get that right, and if you don't believe me just look at the range of women he has had the fortune to marry or befriend in Nigeria. I am reliably informed he is very good in bedmatics and the good looks he does not have is fully compensated for by his strong libido instincts and ability in bed, and because of his name recognition, status, power and influence, some women would kill to have a date with him. They easily fall flat for him despite his looks and lack of finesse and his dry sense of humor. He could be a good alternate to Baba Mero if you get my point. he is therefore a bundle of contradiction as a human being, but a very lucky one at that,

If you think Obasanjo is all about love-making and flirting, you miss the road. He is master strategist and tactician and an expert at a quid pro quo bargain with the power brokers of our nation. He is very good at positioning himself for office, and nobody does it better. I can tell you that. He knows to strike when the iron is very hot, and he knows how to play the power gamer in Nigeria, play up to the gallery and demonstrate absolute loyalty that have made the few Fulanis and Hausa power brokers in the Military believe he was their best bet to torpedo the Black Scorpion from his Third Marine Commando, a position that has offered Obasanjo his first major strategic break in the Nigerian Power configuration during the Biafran War.

It was that opportunity that opportunity that has drastically refurbished his image as a war hero who was willing and prepared to die for Nigeria. It was that presumption that worked in his favor after Murtala was gunned down in a hail of bullets at Ikoyi in a coup led by Colonel Dimkar. Obasanjo escaped the bullet by a squeaker when Colonel Dumuje of the Air Force, an Obasanjo look-alike was mistaken for him and nearly sprayed with bullets before  he was identified and spared..

What Obasanjo did after the Murtala assassination was very clever and smart. He had learnt from his Hausa friends and power brokers in Nigeria that no southerner could ever make it to the top of our country ruling elite, if he did not speak Hausa with the dexterity and fluency of a Dan Maraya or kowtow to the powerful North either right or wrong. Obasanjo was a master at that, and it paid off big time, because they saw him as the exact opposite of Awo's holier than thou predisposition and arrogance as a very competent leader who believed his competence and leadership qualities would see him occupying the highest office of the land, after the rubber meets the road. It was an audacity of hope that never materialized in Awo's life time.

But Obasanjo like the average northerner had realized long ago that the best man does no have to win in Nigeria. We have an inordinate penchant for the mediocre "live and let live" type of leaders who would not rock the boat, like Shagari and a few others in the North of the River Niger. With that mind set Obasanjo had meticulously prepared himself for office by first pretending he did not covet the office of Head of State, and making the North believe he had no ambition to be number one. That was the trick that did it for Obasanjo with the northerners who believe that leaders are born not made. They think that leadership comes from Allah and by so much how the individual had prepared himself to lead The North was persuaded they have got their man in Obasanjo and they moved to commandeer him to serve whatever was left of the short lived Murtala Mohammed tenure from 1976 to 1979 on a quid pro quo condition that Obasanjo would hand over to another Northerner, without fail, in 1979, which he faithfully did, with clock-like precision killing two birds with a stone, so to speak.

The international community had considered him a Saint for voluntarily handing over to a civilian democratic alternative without anyone pointing a gun to his head. That gesture alone could have led to Obasanjo taking over from Butros Butros Ghali of Egypt when he was relieved of his office as the Secretary-general of the UN, several years later. The same move had pacified and mollified the core North to again think of Obasanjo as the only southerner who could be trusted again in 2003 when they had to bring him out of prison to have his coronation for another 4 or 8 years at Aso Rock.

Obasanjo as a cat with nine lives would have gotten away with it all, when half way to his second term as a civilian President, he suddenly turned his back on the nation, believing  he had reached the mountain top of his ambition as the only southerner destined by God to rule Nigeria. He suddenly changed his mind, however, and shifted to his Mobutu Sese Seko or Robert Mugabe mode of dictatorship telling any Nigerians who would care to listen that he wanted a third term by all means. He was willing and ready to sacrifice his own Patrice Lumunba in Abubakar Atiku who had to be demonized and disgraced out of office as a VP on trumped-up charges in the court of public opinion. 

Obasanjo did not win his third term bid  but he got Maurice Iwu to arrange a charade of elections that saw his Party coming back to power in landslide victory despite their abysmal performance and kleptomania in public office 

Why Obasanjo's judgment is called to question on his third term bid is why he could believe he could win  the confidence of the north again having openly betrayed them by rooting for and encouraging another southerner in Odili or Duke to give the North some nightmares on their determined push to regain power in our country after 8 years of a southerner. They were scared they are being frustrated out of power by the monster they have created.. Obasanjo finally got the message very late in the game before finally settling for Musa Yar Adua to placate or appease the North. But the damage has already been done. His poor judgment could also be deduced from his underrating Atiku Abubakar and thinking he could just like that send him to political oblivion, without taking a few body blows himself that could come back to haunt him like we are now witnessing.

Another one of Obasanjo's bad judgment is his decision to impose the last fatal attraction of a woman friend and confidant as the first woman Speaker in the history of Nigeria in the hope and expectation he could continue to rule Nigeria thru her gavel. I think that was disastrous knowing all we know today about the Speaker's pedigree and profiles and crass incompetence. What was astounding was the failure of Obasanjo to quickly recognize the hand writing on the wall and to very quickly advise his lady to throw in the towel before the debate gets down and dirty.

Obasanjo should have recognized he was going to be the greatest loser in all scandals surrounding the Speaker. Rather than do that, all we were told was that the former President had no qualms in moving his entire office to NCONGA Hotel in Abuja to personally supervise and monitor the development and twist the  arms of the PDP Parliamentarians as the plenipotentiary Chairman of the PDP who is more powerful than the weak successor he has anointed. I think that was bad judgment per excellence, and the President owes the whole nation an apology for so doing. Yar Adua is already taking steps to show he would exercise no less a power structure than Obasanjo had exercised while he too was President. The best Obasanjo can now do is to scratch his head while praying for better luck. The Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees and the Speaker  of the House cannot possibly come from the same state under the present dispensation. So Obasanjo's days the PDP Board of Trustees could be numbered if Dimeji Bankole survives as Speaker which is most likely. That is Obasanjo's current dilemma and he knows it.

The mother of all bad judgments must therefore be seen as his decision to be named the life Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees in order to remain in power without anybody voting for him. I think he fumbled big time by accepting that kiss of Death from a Party in total disarray and disintegration as we speak.

Obasanjo has boxed himself into a corner that is now forcing him to behave like a political nincompoop who is shooting in the dark and badly compromising few of the remaining good legacies that could be credited to him as the most favored son of Ogun State. He may now be on a collision course with the new Alake and the powers that be in Egba Land, by seeking to undermine the new Speaker, Dimeji Bankole who is head and shoulders more qualified than his puppet Speaker Etteh who is now singing his "Nunc Dimitis" into political isolation and oblivion down the road.

Obasanjo's public opposition to the new Speaker in order to protect his job as the chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees is a step in the wrong direction that is going to further alienate Obasanjo with a constituency he badly needs as he goes into retirement. If Obasanjo's car blows out a tire today on any street of Abeokuta, outside Owu, he cannot afford to stop to change the tire without someone throwing stones and insults at him and embarrassing him. If that is what it takes to be a retired President of Nigeria, very few Nigerian would want to serve as President. Obasanjo has now found himself in a double bind now having to defend political hoodlums and touts like Adedibu in order to survive.

I was at the Abyssinian Baptist Church, Harlem last month when William Jefferson Clinton accompanied his wife to a political Rally in the great sanctuary where Rev. Butts is the boss. It was a spectacle to behold Americans, in their thousands, have trooped out to welcome and to just have a hand shake with the charismatic two term President who has become a Rock Star, so to speak. I sat there glued to my seat on the front row thinking of nobody else but Obasanjo, and what his own people would have done to him if he has ventured to do what the young President has done in Harlem

Obasanjo needs to refurbish his image to have any chance at all of enjoying his retirement after serving Nigeria for so long with distinction as a War Commander, as a number two man and then for eleven years as Head of State or President.

I rest my case.

Dr Wumi Akintide.