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Lagos and Kano – On the Question of Population Might and Neglect By Aliyu Salisu Barau
Introduction This article is a disclaimer to a publication serialised in the Kaleidoscope column of The Guardian newspapers of Sunday, February 2008 and March 2, 2008. The title of the said article is, “Urbicide: Lagos and the Crisis of the Megacity” written by Samuel James. My diagnosis and prognosis of the publication reveal that it is a derivative of the author’s research findings: “Lagos, Nigeria – The Megacity Crises” submitted to the Institute of Global Leadership of the Tufts University. The article is riddled with signs of implosion that indicate that the author has not carried adequate research on the crises of megacity in Lagos. By all indications, the research lacks adequate and case-based fieldwork and adequate socioeconomic surveys. However, it ought to be said that Samuel James has achieved a fair review of literature on the dimensions of urbanization from different parts of the world. The goal of this write-stuff is to flash the fault-lines in the Samuel James’s research and to as well flush its flaws and faultiness. In fact, there are unforgivable mistakes or misrepresentation of facts. The article shows that the research carried out is shallow, narrow and prejudicial. It is most annoying that Samuel James alludes that the “northern military oligarchs” were responsible for the decay of Lagos. More so, how can this scholar human rights activist and journalist dismiss Kano’s population primacy over Lagos in the most ignoramus way? The way Samuel talks about Abuja and Lagos shows his obvious lack of understanding of the facts and figures on Nigeria. At the end of it, I will show that what Samuel James did is only an armchair research. Why Lagos Must Cease to be Nigeria’s Capital? Let me begin by quoting Samuel James who suggests that, “In the mid 1970s, at the height of the oil boom, military oligarchs decided to move the capital from Lagos to Abuja, closer to their northern political base. This diverted hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funds away from Lagos…” Such are the assertions from someone who received grants to conduct a research. It appears Samuel has had a poor library research. Otherwise, even internet search engines can tell him the remote and immediate reasons why the federal government had to relocate to Abuja and also how and why Abuja was chosen. The administration of General Murtala Ramat Muhammad made the giant stride of enacting a fiat that relocated Nigeria’s capital from Lagos to Abuja in 1976. If Samuel James and his likes do not know, Murtala’s regime was fair-minded in its procedures of relocating the capital. In other words, there were enough and proven reasons why the relocation decision was taken. That administration constituted a panel under distinguished Justice Akinola Aguda himself a learned legal luminary from western Nigeria to advise the federal government to either retain Lagos or opt for any other place as the seat of the government. The panel considered Lagos unfit to retain that position because of obvious facts. One of the reasons advanced was that the landmass of Lagos is too tiny to serve both as capital of Nigeria and the Lagos state. The high density of the population and juxtaposition of commercial and industrial activities make running the business of government quite uneasy. Besides the overcrowding in this coastal city, the security of Lagos is quite vulnerable especially if one considered Nigeria’s radical role in the liberation of southern African states and wider international politics. It is OK enough to understand the risks that encircled Lagos. During the Nigerian civil war Lagos was nearly invaded by the Biafrans if not for the gallantry of Colonel Murtala Muhammad and other officers. In this century, Lagos is more vulnerable of being doomed by the obvious threats of sea level rise induced by global warming. The choice of Abuja by the Aguda panel was informed by the centrality of its location, its amenable natural environment, abundance of land for future expansion, lacking dominance of any of the major ethnic groups, and its accessibility gives all Nigerian a feeling of spatial equality. No state in Nigeria is exorbitantly far from the federal capital. To close this point, we need to know that Calabar was the capital of southern protectorate before Lagos replaced it in 1906. Is Lagos Neglected? Samuel James hinted how military regimes from that of General Buhari neglected Lagos, he remarks thus, “…in 1983 a bloodless coup overthrew the civilian government in Nigeria and the Lagos master plan was abandoned. For the next 16 years, military dictators from northern Nigeria used Lagos commercial activity as a source of personal enrichment.” Such statements only bring to light the fact that the author paid poor attention to historical evolution of Abuja. Why could not he think the other way round? Why did Lagos remain the seat of government in spite of the constitutional injunctions concerning the relocation of government to Abuja? The governments of General Obasanjo, President Shagari, General Buhari and substantial part of General Babangida’s remained in Lagos. Whose sabotage and why the go slow in the relocation bid? Indeed, it was Abuja master plan that suffered. It was corrupted and abandoned. Up to this moment Abuja is enmeshed in planning crises. Who do you blame for that? Bureaucratic oligarchs from which part of Nigeria? The people of the Niger Delta will deem it incredible or blatant miscarriage of facts to say that it was Lagos that enriched the corrupt military officers (from all Nigerian geographical expressions). The military potentates, I will believe stole Nigeria’s petrodollars to invest in developing Lagos industrial and commercial activities. So Lagos earns from the gains of the Nigerian corrupt military officers and civilians as well. I will believe that over significant proportion of the investments of military and that of their cronies in Nigeria were sown in Lagos. Kano: Nigeria’s De facto Demographic Giant In the same article, Samuel James lambastes Nigeria’s federal government thus, “According to federal census the largest city (sic) in Nigeria, Kano stood at a population of 9.4 million whereas Lagos lagged behind with 9.1. This blatant act of disregard for the facts by the federal government was immediately countered by parallel census taken by Lagos state government which placed the population of Lagos at more than 17.5 million”. To start with, Samuel proved to the world his lack sense of justice in handling debatable matters of national interest. An academic work is expected to best resolve such matters in the most disinterested way. Why must Samuel be so careless enough to be unable to distinguish between Kano city and Kano State! Samuel’s research on Lagos megacity could only be done within living rooms and offices of some gory ach-tribalists. No more.
I will use this medium to educate Samuel and those that he might have misled by his article and even his sponsors at the Tufts University on some key facts about Kano’s population. Population census has its peculiar place in Nigeria political profile. In defense of Kano’s population strength, I have written a book titled an Account of the High Population in Kano State. This book has been webcast at various sites and in the E-library of the US based Population Environment Research Network. The work highlights the historical, economic, political and environmental parameters that combine to give Kano its demographic might over Lagos and any other place in Nigeria. It will be boring if I repeat the facts that I revealed in the said publication. Nonetheless, it is important to note that there is clear dividing line between principles and practices of politics and science. The conduct population of census is scientific and so very much empirical, whereas politics of regionalism and tribalism induce people to jettison what does not favour their interest. Arguably, the 2006 population census has a cleaner bill of health as compared to previous ones held in Nigeria. This assertion is laid on the fact that, this time around expatriate consultants have played a visible role in the organization and administration of the census data and new tools were incorporated into the exercise. Politicians and vast majority of the members of public are laymen who do not grasp the mathematics of census. They are only concerned with its arithmetics.
According to the gazetted preliminary results of the 2006 population and housing census, Kano State (not Kano city) has a population of 9,383,682 making it the most populous state in Nigeria. Lagos is following with 9,013,534. The pronouncement opened Pandora box. All the apex vituperations on this world were poured on Chief Samuila Danko Makama, Nigeria’s population boss and northerners particularly the people of Kano. Samuel even as armchair researcher supposes to be disinterested in such debates but chooses to side with the census rebels in condemning the results. It is obvious that Lagos is the most urbanised place in the West African sub region. It is a fact that you can hardly throw a stone in Lagos in daylight time without falling on a good or bad head. Some people believe such high density ought to make Lagos the most populous. People weaving such lame belief are ignoramus. What they do not know is the mathematics of the situation – population dynamics, spatial distribution. Lagos state has a land mass of 3557 square kilometers and population density of 2594 persons per square kilometers. On the other hand, Kano state has a land mass of 20, 131 square kilometers with population density of approximately 500 persons per square kilometer. Can we balance this equation? We will try. Population density in Lagos is five times higher than that of Kano. But the landmass of Kano state is at least six times that of Lagos State! To paraphrase more, Lagos is a tiny tin jam-packed with engineers, area boys, molues, corporate towers, refuse hills and markets. Whereas Kano is a wide platter dotted with merchants, yandabas, minarets, radicals, pastoralists, cultivators and host of others. These are the facts that Samuel and many Nigerians disregard rather blindly and blatantly. On the Parallel Census and Resident Lagosians Samuel asserts that the results of Lagos state government census indicates that the state has a population of over 17.5 million inhabitants in contrast to 9 million figure of the National Population Commission. We may recall that on the eve of 2006 census, the then Governor of Lagos Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu made ample threats to residents of Lagos especially the non-indigenes not to leave Lagos for their states. Why? Lagos State needed to consult with such experts on human mobility in Africa; I mean the likes of Professors Prothero and Adepoju. Keeping my promise of educating inexact scholars like Samuel James, I will tell them that Lagos is the prime place in Nigeria which is well linked to almost all the points in the hinterland. Today, it is not the permanent or temporary migration that gives Lagos its population but what population experts call “circulation”. People are in constant move in and out of Lagos State for business, commercial, industrial and activities and all other forms of services. The pattern of such circulations varies from one activity to the next. But it all covers daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly or even annual circulations. Perhaps, that is why those Lagos residents who felt doing nothing in Lagos during the census exercise is worthless chose to move to their states at least to make use of the time for reunion with their loved ones. I have an experiential study of the patterns of migration during my mandatory national youth service in western Nigeria. I observe with keen interest how Lagos is being emptied or at least idled in the weekend when workers from neighbouring states of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti make their holidays at their home states. In the same vein, tens of thousands of people make diurnal moves in and out of Lagos for one business or the other in the weekends. From this we can understand that the population of Lagos is fed by unbroken circulation of people. But, so long as population movement is restricted across the nation say during election or census exercises, the system is to be affected significantly. In other words, the thick population in Lagos is sickened and shocked by that short demographic haemorrhage and the outcome is going to be visible. Makama, the Nigeria’s population chief has sufficiently debunked the rationale, methodology and result of the Lagos parallel census in his public address after the census exercise. The apparent flaws in the Lagos state parallel census were exposed. I believe that what intoxicated Tinubu government were the population projections of some international organizations that put the Lagos population higher than that of the National Population Commission (NPC). Such projections made by some international orgnisations are made through extrapolations and interpolations that are not necessarily applicable to Nigeria. Such projections have proved abortive in predicting Nigeria’s population. An example of such plain failure is given by the 1991 population census figures. Projections of various international organizations then put the country’s population at 120 million but after the conduct of census Nigeria’s inhabitants appeared to be only 88.5 million which was 32 million short of such external projections. Kano as the Neglected and marginalized State Kano is the most natural state in Nigeria; it was most important sub Saharan city in Africa. All the first generation maps of Africa have spotted Kano just as the most ancient libraries in Europe have documented plethora of information on it. It is Kano that opened global gates of Africa. Its airport is the first in Africa to receive the Imperial Airways (now British Airways) and the KLM. Kano has been a cosmopolis over five centuries ago. The icon of Nigerian geography, Professor Akin Mabogunje in his Urbanisation in Nigeria has clearly shown how Kano fared well in the trans-Sahara trade and yet it became integrated even at the rise of Trans Atlantic trade. Many towns in Nigeria emerged or declined in importance sequel to colonialism. Kano is cultural bloodline in Africa and that is why none of the Nigerian states has received foreign leaders like Kano (excluding capital cities of Abuja and Lagos). Since the visit of Prince of Wales to Kano in 1925 over twenty five heads of state and governments chose to visit Kano. The list includes Queen Elizabeth II, President Jimmy Carter, Margaret Thatcher, Emperor Haile Selassie, Muammar Ghaddafi, Nehru Gandhi, Kwame Nkurmah, J.J Rawlings, Robert Mugabe, Jomo Kenyatta, Julius Nyerere, HRH Charles, the Prince of Wales, Madeleine Albright Former US Secretary of State to mention few. At least, urban Kano is also the next city in ranking after Lagos, yet the city and even the state as a whole are seriously neglected by the Nigerian federal government. In contrast to Lagos, Abuja, Kaduna, Ibadan, Enugu, Jos, Port Harcourt and host of other cities and towns in Nigeria, Kano is almost growing independent of the federal and defunct regional governments’ development projects. During the colonial period Kano had internally generated all the funds for its infrastructure and utilities development without taking a penny from anywhere even during the Second World War depression that affected many areas in Nigeria. Kano was also the biggest tax payer to northern government till the creation of Kano as a federating state in 1967. The coming of oil decimated internal revenue generation centralized revenue and infrastructure development. The federal government sank leviathan funds to develop Lagos and other parts of Nigeria but in comparison to its place in Nigeria’s demography Kano is getting too little of federal projects. This I shall defend with some facts not allegations. The fashion of federal government’s developmental endeavours in Kano State is only that of ‘cut and paste’. Cut and paste as how? This is the situation whereby federal government converts the state government’s property into its own. I believe this is common all over the federation but the situation in Kano is more unpleasant. Examples of the state developed properties that have been taken away by the federal government include the buildings of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA) at Bompai, Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, National library annex, Nigerian Law School campus, NIHOTOUR, Bagauda, Tiga and Challawa dams to mention but few. Samuel James and the likes who consistently talk of neglect of Lagos state should know that federal government has in most cases initiate development projects in Lagos and other places from scratch to completion and sometimes compensating even for the land. Most often, the federal government takes over the properties of Kano government and people and only to gag their further growth and development. Take for instance, the case of Kano city walls and city gates which archaeologist Dr. Patrick Darling described as the most important monument in West Africa. The impression that the same monument gave to Nigeria’s pioneer Governor–General Lord Lugard is that, “I have never seen, nor even imagined, anything like it in Africa”. It was the same wall that galvanised Davidson, a British Second World war veteran to become a Professor of African history. If the Kano walls and city gates were on the custody of the Kano State government they would have been enlisted into World Heritage Sites. Since the federal government take over these monuments they have been progressively dilapidating and even the recent intervention by the German government to restore part of these walls and gates was sabotaged. Another good example of suffocating and neglecting Kano state is in agricultural development. The Kano River project is designed to irrigate over 60,000 hectares of land; however, since the federal government takes over the scheme the phase one of 22,000 hectares is yet to be exhausted. One should be fair enough to judge the serious neglect of Kano State in the scheme of doing things in Nigeria. Why must Kano state government used Kano state money to develop structures that federal government would ultimately take over and claim distinction of developing Kano with them. Lagos state has always got special and immediate interventions from the federal government; Lagos has got such giant and priority projects like construction of overhead bridges, water breakers, clearance of water hyacinth, airport special projects, special security interventions and host of others. In fact, Lagos state is known for its take-all-tax syndrome where it collects tax of all workers of some banks and other corporate bodies whose headquarters are based in Lagos. That invariably denies other states of some taxes to be generated internally. On the other hand, the intervention of the federal government in promoting ecological stability in Kano state is very minimal. Let us take the case of Kano International Airport which is now shadow of its past. It is older that that of Lagos and the deliberate neglect of the airport by the federal government is on the horizon for all to behold. Many foreign airlines were forced to either relocate from Kano or abandoned its routes. No less than ten international passenger and cargo planes we affected by that. The prosperity of Kano’s economy has suffered immensely. What will Samuel say? Kano and Lagos in the Ivory Tower Scholar Samuel James wants us to believe that Lagos is bereft of its first position in population by northerners when international scholars uphold its position as the most populous state in Nigeria. He remarks that, “after decades of neglect, Lagos has recently become a focal point of intense scholarly interest-not only African scholars and development specialists but also and western intellectuals, for whom Lagos provides a fascinating case study of alternative urban organisation”. In this regard, it is heartening to remark that Kano is at least the most studied spot in West Africa by European and American scholars as well as other development experts especially in matters of population and resource use. The concept of Kano Close-Settled Zone is known very much and no less than 10 PhD degrees have been carried out on the subject matter by Western scholars alone. The concept of Kano Close-settled Zone corroborates the high population and its sustainability within radius of some 50 kilometers from the city of Kano. The area attracts the attention of land resource experts from all over the world. The high population associated with the area exceeds 500 years yet the inherent resource use culture does not allow for critical environmental depletion. Land fallowing is not practiced within the Kano Close-settled Zone. Some of the prominent researches on the Kano Close-settled Zone include those of: Amerana, P.M.J. 1982, a Ph.D thesis submitted to University of London; Harris, F. 1996, Sustainable Agriculture Programme of the International Institute for Environment and Development; Population, Prosperity and Poverty – Rural Kano 1900 and 1970, Cambridge University Press 1977; Woodfuel in Kano 1990 -United Nations University Press, Tokyo. All these researches were carried out by non Africans or in conjunction with some African scholars. The researches elaborate the nature of the complexity population and natural resources development and administration in Kano. That is why the experts continue to move into Kano even from as far as New Zealand. Apart from such researches several academic and developmental researches are being carried out on other socio-economic and cultural fabrics of Kano by foreigners. Let every Nigerian doubting the exalted place of Kano in Africa know that the so called northern oligarchs were not there when European explorers, administrators and scholars passed some unimpeachable panegyrics on Kano. Hugh Clapperton, a British spy cum explorer in 1892 called it, “The great emporium of kingdom of Hausa”, speaking on Kano’s market he says it is “well supplied with every necessary luxury in request among people…there is no market in Africa so well regulated. Henry Barth another British spy in19th century remarks that Kano is “the central point of commerce…a great storehouse of information…a place like Kano …will at some future become important even for the commercial world of Europe…one of the most fertile spots on earth, and is able to produce not only the supply of corn necessary for its population but can also export…We must presume that Kano is one of the happiest countries in the world…it was the most animated picture of a little world in itself , so different in external form from all that is seen in European town, yet so similar in its internal principles”. Lord Lugard's account on Kano city wall is “I have never seen, nor even imagined, anything like it in Africa… `commercial emporium of the western Sudan` [On Emir's palace] `No mean citadel` Lt. Col. A.F Mockler-Ferryman who assed Kano before its occupation by British forces says it is: “[The] most famous market of all in Tropical Africa…``The London and Manchester of the Sudan…It is land of plenty, a land literally flowing with milk and honey` (All the above citations appear in Perspectives on Kano-British Relations, Gidan Makama Museum Kano, 2003). I just quote all of the above in keeping to my promise of educating Samuel James and other armchair researchers as well as Lagos fundamentalists. Samuel James, which type of Scholar? Samuel James opens his apocryphal script with the following verse, “descending upon Murtala Muhammed International Airport, one can see where the jungle ends and the city begins. In the same fashion, he concludes the article referring to a work of yet another cynical researcher that studied Lagos from helicopter. It seems that both Samuel and Koolhas are cynic airborne researchers. But a good scholar or student of urbanization and population studies has to be a land rover. He or she has to make a close contact with land and its people. Even the interview conducted with such people like Felix Morka could not be sufficient. One has to cross good representation of the strata of Lagos in order to know what is happening in the megacity. For what ever reason, one is using planes or aerial photograph it is mandatory that he or she uses ground truthing if a meaningful research is to be carried out. I must say unambiguously that Samuel James has done a great deal of literature review. And that literature review has only given a condensed condemnation of the accusations that you leveled against the so called northern oligarchs. It shows that the problem of urban decay is globally ubiquitous. Conclusion At this exist point, I have to emphasise that if the article that I sliced and diced above were written by any layman, conman, politician or tribalist, I won’t sweat to reply. But, if a scholar makes such ridiculous and misleading statements, someone has to respond to clear the air. By and large, the problems that Samuel identified for Lagos are common to all rapidly growing cities in Africa and Nigeria. Lagos, Johannesburg, Cairo, Kano, Ibadan, Jos, Kaduna, Enugu etc. Albeit, the degree of degeneration varies with intensity of human habitation. It is important to note that it is unbecoming and unethical for a potential leader (except a Machiavellian one) to polarize or arouse tension that divides the people of any given place. In general, Samuel James offered an unbalanced and unsubstantiated details concerning the crises of urbanisation in Lagos.
Aliyu Salisu Barau writes from Kano.
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